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Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello
basketball recruiting insider
- Jeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He joined ESPN in 2014.
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Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf
espn staff writer
- Myron Medcalf covers college basketball for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2011.
number 12 kentucky wildcats Set to contest 2025 State Farm Champions Classic against No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with No. 5 duke blue devils Expected to finish the night against No. 24 kansas jayhawks (9 p.m. ET, ESPN).
In the last six editions of the Champions Classic, all but one of the 12 games has been decided by double digits. Could we see another pair of close contests on Tuesday?
Men’s college basketball reporters Myron Medcalf and Jeff Borzello break down how each matchup could be decided below.
How Kentucky can win: Michigan State doesn’t have a player like that mikel brown jr— The Projected NBA Lottery Picks out of Louisville who scored 29 points in the Cardinals’ win against Kentucky last Tuesday – but the Wildcats will have to be better defensively than their opponent. They can’t let the Spartans have the same success the Cardinals had a week ago on isolation and pick-and-roll plays.
On offense, Kentucky is at its best when it plays fast but under control. That speed (the Wildcats rank 83rd in adjusted speed, according to KenPom) allows Colin Chandler (3 out of 57%) to get an open look, and denzel aberdeen And Otega Oweh To make shots – a potential winning formula against Michigan State.
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Denzel Aberdeen hits big slam against Eastern Illinois Panthers
Denzel Aberdeen hits big slam against Eastern Illinois Panthers
How Michigan State can win: Michigan State doesn’t win the talent battle, but Tom Izzo will be the most experienced coach on the field, which is a potential key to the game. It will be difficult for the Spartans to match Kentucky’s speed and win, but they can replicate Louisville’s success in exposing the Wildcats’ defensive weaknesses in half-court assignments.
The Spartans also need to limit Oweh’s impact, and force other players to take shots they are not accustomed to shooting. Izzo will also need a 6-foot-9 freshman cam ward (18 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals in a November 8 win over Arkansas) To play at a higher level under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.
The X Factors We Haven’t Considered Yet: Michigan State is just 9-for-43 from the 3-point line in its last two Champions Classic appearances — and this season’s team has made just 21.7% of its shots from beyond the arc (352nd out of 365 Division I programs entering the week). Another cold night for the Spartans could spell disaster against a Kentucky team that ranks in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
On the other hand, Kentucky coach Mark Pope said jaland loweThe condition is uncertain due to injury. If Pitt Transfer is unavailable, Aberdeen will be forced to lead his team and avoid foul trouble. A few early fouls on the Florida transfer, arguably the Wildcats’ best defensive player, could have changed the outcome of this game. — medcalf
How could Duke win: There is a notable difference in talent among these teams, which will be especially true if darrin peterson Can’t conform or is not 100% healthy hamstring injury,
Duke didn’t look efficient offensively in the first half of their season opener against Texas, but the Blue Devils have been firing on all cylinders since then. cameron boozer Has been as productive as expected (more on that below), but the perimeter balance has also been impressive. Duke has made 36 3s in its last three games Dame Sarr is beginning to emerge and Patrick Ngongba II Having an anchor inside. Kansas couldn’t stop North Carolina after the Tar Heels led in the second half of their Nov. 7 loss to the Jayhawks, and I expect a repeat of that on Tuesday night.
How Kansas can win: If Peterson doesn’t play, it’s hard to see the Jayhawks winning. Can they find any level of success in limiting Boozer’s touches near the rim – the way Texas did on Nov. 4 – with some combination of flory bidunga, tray white And bryson tillerWithout Peterson, Kansas’ offense has gone through Bidunga, who will need to be aggressive against Ngongba. malik brown,
Bill Self has a variety of battle-tested veteran wings; white, melvin council jr And jaden dawson Kansas will need to step up, too, if it wants to maintain Duke’s firepower.
What does Boozer have to do to close the gap in the race for the No. 1 pick? He set off alarm bells over the weekend when he said Kansas would not have Peterson — who leads ESPN’s first 2026 mock draftwith BYU’s AJ DiBantsa And Boozer is falling out of the top three – at least for the “immediate future” due to his long-standing hamstring problems. Peterson had missed the Jayhawks’ last two games and Self said after the first absence that it was precautionary. But Pietersen’s availability for Tuesday – and possibly even longer – is now in doubt. NBA scouts and executives will want to know whether Peterson’s situation is related to load management and thus can be resolved comfortably, or whether it is something more serious.
Meanwhile, Boozer has continued to be productive and finished with 35 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals against Indiana State on Friday. We should expect more massive stat lines in Tuesday’s game and in upcoming matchups against Florida, Michigan State and Texas Tech – which will keep him in the conversation for the top selection. — Borzello
