California voters seems likely to be approved A new Democratic-friendly map will be drawn next week, a move that would bring a major political victory for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) as he considers a possible White House bid.
Public polling indicates that Proposition 50, which would impose new lines of Congress that would give Democrats some pickup opportunities in the House next year, is on track to easily pass next Tuesday.
Both parties are expected to pass the ballot measure, with some Democrats arguing it strengthens Newsom’s position in the party as they look for a figure to fill their leadership void ahead of 2028.
“Gavin Newsom is able to legitimately take credit for taking a huge risk here, and moving forward for Republicans and going to the president on behalf of the party — not on behalf of Gavin Newsom, but on behalf of [the] The party is trying to increase the number of Democrats in the House to four or five members after 2026 – you know, they deserve credit for that,” said veteran Democratic strategist Darry Sargo.
Newsom called special elections earlier this year in an effort to counter GOP redistricting efforts pushed by President Trump in states like Texas. However, in order for California to redraw its map, the state had to pass a constitutional amendment allowing the state to bypass its independent redistricting commission, which is in charge of drawing congressional lines.
The measure makes clear that the process is only temporary, and the redistricting panel will again take on the task of drawing California’s congressional map after the 2030 U.S. Census.
Despite initial ambivalence toward redistricting, California voters are now ready to give the legislature the green light after a campaign run by Newsom that largely focused on anti-Trump sentiment and concerns over democracy.
Public polling shows that more than half of California voters would approve Proposition 50. emerson college votingNew numbers released last weekIt found that 57 percent of likely voters supported the measure; When undecided voters were included, this support increased to 60 percent.
A CBS News/YouGov surveyreleased last weekfound that 62 percent of likely voters would support the measure, while a coefficientThe survey found thatPassing 54 percent.
The optimism of redistricting supporters also includes the spending gap separating the two parties. State campaign finance filings show the Newsom group alone has raised $114 million as of Oct. 18, with $37 million left in the bank, while the two major groups opposing the measure have raised more than a third of that — $43.7 million, with about $2.3 million in cash.
“I think all indications are that it’s going to pass very overwhelmingly,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who is working for major GOP donor Charles Munger’s Prop 50 opposition group, the Protect Voters First Committee.
“We have to remember that this is an extraordinary partisan moment in American history,” Madrid said. “California is the biggest, bluest state — to change that dynamic at a time when Donald Trump is at an all-time low would be an exceptionally high hill to overcome.”
Newsom’s campaign also sent an email to supporters on Monday urging them to stop donating money. The campaign said it “hit our budget goals and increased what we need to pass Proposition 50.” Yet Newsom warned in a video posted to Instagram on Tuesday that “don’t think for a second that we can run a 90-yard dash.”
The Governor of California probably has the most to gain from the passage of this measure.
Newsom has taken an aggressive stance against Trump since the beginning of the year, leading to speculation about his political aspirations. Over the weekend, he confirmed to CBS News that he was seriously considering a White House bid in 2028, adding that he “would be lying otherwise.”
Still, his team says the governor is not focused on the 2028 horse race right now.
“The Governor is 100% focused on passing Proposition 50. Every day that Donald Trump remains in power is code red for America and our democracy,” Newsom and Yes on 50 campaign spokeswoman Hannah Milgrom told The Hill in a statement.
Political observers emphasize that there is a lot of time between now and the next presidential election. But they agree that the passage of Prop 50 next week would be good for Newsom if he decides to run for president.
Gary South, a Democratic strategist who ran Newsom’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign, said, “It’s like the league that elite governors can brag about when they run for president.”
Madrid argued that even if Prop 50 failed to pass, Newsom would still benefit from the election.
“I think even if he loses, it’s still a win, because he’s just showing fight,” Madrid said.
Other strategists are having lower expectations for Newsom. John Fleischman, former executive director of the California GOP, said passing Proposition 50 would be a “modest victory” for the governor.
Fleishman said, “It’s a good sign for Gavin Newsom to win, but we also have to remember that the victory is overshadowed by the fact that winning a partisan Democrat ballot in one of the bluest states in the country was not the greatest victory in the world.” “So if he had lost, I think it would have been a huge, embarrassing defeat.”
Sargo, the Democratic strategist, said that even if Prop 50 passes next week, the party and Newsom still have a way to go before declaring victory before the 2026 midterms — and even 2028.
“There’s an assumption being made that because of the way … congressional district lines will be drawn, if Prop 50 wins, Democrats will gain four or five seats in the House. I mean, that’s an assumption that hasn’t happened yet,” Sargo said.
And Newsom “had to do a lot of traveling, give a lot of speeches, make a lot of media appearances and deal with a lot of unknowns before he could hold a party in the new East Wing of the White House.”
