Breaking down Pats-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks via Next Gen Stats

Many think Conference Championship Sunday is the best day of NFL football, as it features two potentially spectacular games and focuses more on football than the Super Bowl spectacle.

And Sunday is one of the most interesting stories denver broncos quarterback jarrett stidhamwho is starting in place of the injured bo nix. This will be Stidham’s first start since 2023 and fifth since being drafted in 2019.

But Stidham has some positives on his resume. According to Next Gen Stats, he added an expected points added (EPA) of +0.04 per dropback over the last four years (149 total pass attempts) and had a passing success rate of 46.1%. Both are above league average (-0.03 EPA/dB, 44.2% success rate) over that span. In fact, Stidham’s combined success rate over the last four years (46.1%) was higher than the Knicks’ success rate this season (44.5%).

During this time, Los Angeles Rams cubby Matthew Stafford Success rate in divisional round overtime win was just 30.4% Chicago Bears. This was ninth lowest out of 238 playoff starting quarterbacks over the last 10 years. Stafford was the only QB in the bottom 15 not to lose.

Here’s a deeper look at the two conference championship games through the lens of Next Gen Stats.

Can the Broncos take advantage of the Patriots’ left tackle Will Campbell?

in two playoff games against los angeles chargers And houston texansCampbell allowed 10 pressures, including four sacks, in 73 pass-blocking reps (13.7%). This is the ultimate pressure and dismissal for the Patriots.

But expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to help him. The Patriots provided chip block assists to both Campbell and right tackle morgan moses. Campbell received chip assists on 13.3% of his pass sets, the eighth-highest mark among left tackles, and Moses received chip assists on 15% of his pass sets, the sixth-highest mark among right tackles (with a minimum of 200 pass blocks).

In the Broncos’ win over the Bills, their pass rush pressured the quarterback. josh allen On his 32% dropback. In the regular season, the Broncos led the league in sacks (68). One of his favorite strategies was to send out at least five pass rushers. Denver completed it 33.7% of the time and generated a 50% pressure rate, finishing with 29 sacks, second.

Drake Mays recorded a +62.8 EPA on passes over 20 air yards in the regular season, the highest in the NFL.

The Broncos defense allowed the lowest deep completion percentage (20.3%) and held Josh Allen to 0/9 with two interceptions last week.#NEvsDEN | #NEPats | #broncoscountry pic.twitter.com/qANySIIFmf

– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) 23 January 2026

But the blitzing Patriots quarterback drake may Can be expensive. Against the blitz this season, Maye finished with 1,491 passing yards (second), 15 touchdowns (third), a passer rating of 129.2 (first) and a dropback EPA of .28 (third).

Against the Texans, Mayes had a passer rating of 103 with a touchdown against the blitz. The Texans didn’t do this often (only 18% of their dropbacks), but when they did, Mays took advantage.

Additionally, when under pressure, Mayes averaged a league-high 8.8 yards per attempt and his 10 touchdown passes tied the Chargers’ quarterback total. Justin Herbert for most. One reason he is effective under pressure is that he will push the ball down the field, but this can lead to mistakes.

Through two playoff games, Mayes has been strip-sacked five times and lost two fumbles. Outside linebacker in Broncos’ divisional round win over Bills Nick Bonitto Recorded a strip sack, which was later recovered by a defensive tackle malcolm roach.

Therefore, keep an eye on the safety of May’s ball.

From a secondary perspective, the Patriots’ All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez Tested 16 times in divisional round. He had only seven catches for 58 yards. Overall, in his two playoff games he has allowed a 33.3% completion percentage with three pass breakups.

The other side features the Broncos’ veteran superstar cornerback Pat Surtain II. He has lined up as the full-time boundary – short-side – cornerback in each of the Broncos’ last three games, playing 118 snaps as the boundary corner. Surtain played 321 snaps as a boundary corner and 238 snaps as a field corner this season.

Drake Mays completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the Patriots’ divisional round win over the Texans.

Mays was especially effective against man coverage, completing 8 of 12 passes for 106 yards and all three TDs.#HOUvsNE | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/FgORaKmhfS

– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) 18 January 2026

How does it matter? Surtain was targeted as a boundary corner on only 11.4% of his snaps, the second-lowest mark among the 64 cornerbacks who played at least 100 such snaps. They allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap (fifth lowest).

When it comes to Mays’ deep passing versus the Broncos defending the deep pass, we will see strength versus strength.

Maye’s 52.1% deep ball completion percentage was the second highest this season. But the Broncos’ 20.4% deep completion percentage was the lowest. The Broncos did not allow a single completion on nine deep passes from Allen in the divisional round, blocking two throws.

at los angeles rams Seattle Seahawks6:30 pm ET, Fox

This matchup features two superstar receivers from Seattle Jackson Smith-Njigba And Ram puka nakuaand while davante adams While he’s not the All-Pro receiver he once was, he’s still a passing threat.

Nacua averaged a league-high 3.8 yards per route this season and Smith-Njigba averaged 3.7 yards per route. He was at least 1.2 yards more per route than the next-closest player — Baltimore Ravens‘ Jai Phool (2.5).

Matthew Stafford has thrown 28 passing touchdowns from under center this season, more than twice as many as any other quarterback except his NFC Championship rival Sam Darnold (18).

Darnold led the NFL with 44 downfield completions below center.#LARvsSEA | #ramshouse | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/WnlqQqG1pg

– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) 21 January 2026

Ram should pay attention to Nekua in motion. He gained a league-high 473 receiving yards on snaps after coming into action, the most by any player in a season since at least 2018. This also marked back-to-back seasons in which he has gained at least 400 such yards.

Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 956 receiving yards when aligned in the slot last season, then led the league with 1,378 receiving yards when aligned wide this season. He is the first player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to lead the NFL in receiving yards from the slot in one season and out wide in another.

Smith-Njigba can hurt you at any position, but he has played 81.4% of his snaps out wide this season. He was able to turn this into a league-high 44 explosive receptions (15-plus yards), the most by any wide receiver in a season over the past two years.

He and Nakuya can defend against any type of route. Smith-Nzigba gained 100 or more receiving yards on eight different route types this season. The only other wideout to do that? You guessed it, Nekua.

Smith-Njigba ranked in the top five on five different routes, including the go route, where his 279 yards were the most on any route. Nacua led in receiving yards on post routes (278 yards) and in-routes (253 yards). Both players excelled when running in-breaking routes, as Smith-Njigba (828 yards) was three yards behind Nacua’s league-leading yardage mark of 831.

One strength of the Seahawks is quarterback Sam Darnold And play-action, and that’s also a weakness for the Rams.

The Rams struggled to defend play-action, especially when they used base personnel. In base personnel, he allowed a 78.0% completion percentage and 10.9 yards per attempt when defending play-action with that group on the field, both of which ranked as the second highest marks in the NFL.

They were much better when they had nickel groupings defending play-action. He allowed a 64.2% completion percentage and 6.7 yards per attempt, both below the league average marks of 66.8% and 7.9.

With play-action, Darnold is tied for the highest EPA per dropback (.41) among starters and has the highest overall EPA of 58.8.

The Seahawks use the dime package to get Devon Witherspoon, Rick Woolen and Josh Jobe on the field at the same time.

All three have allowed less than a yard per coverage snap in a dime, each ranking among the top five cornerbacks in the NFL in that metric.@Seahawks pic.twitter.com/Cmoo740mzL

– Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) 22 January 2026

In the trenches, the Seahawks’ pass rush generated the fourth-highest pressure rate (38.9%) and the Rams’ offensive line allowed the second-lowest pressure rate (27.3%) this season despite facing the sixth-highest blitz rate (32.9%).

On the other hand, the Rams generated the fifth-highest pressure rate (38.0%) and the Seahawks’ offensive line generated the fifth-lowest pressure rate (29.2%) this season.

When it comes to inside pressure, the total pressure generated on Sunday will include the top four defensive tackle duos: