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Pamela Maldonado
Texas is ranked No. 10 with a 7-2 record, and the math is clear: A third loss keeps the playoff dream in half, but a fourth defeat ends it all.
The path is not easy. Texas must first travel to Athens to face No. 5 Georgia, which is 8-1 and headed toward an SEC title shot before squaring off with No. 3 Texas A&M.
Georgia beat Texas twice last season, so this feels less like a showdown and more like “here we go again” for the Longhorns.
all possibilities espn bet
number 11 Texas Longhorns at number 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
Line: Georgia -6.5
money line: Georgia (-210), Texas (+180)
over under: 48.5 (O-110, U-110)
Is Texas…back?
No, and I say that as someone who wants to believe the answer is “yes.”
The past two weeks have been fun, but they’ve also been confusing. If you strip away the emotions and look at the data points that matter, the picture becomes real… very quickly.
The Longhorns offense has not “survived”. It only seems that way because the last two opponents have made it easy to believe that something has changed. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are bottom half defenses with soft coverage, inconsistent pressure and poor tackling. Any offense with talented receivers should have them moving forward. If Texas didn’t look good, that would have been the real story, but beating weak units through broken coverages and wide-open midfield windows doesn’t mean the system suddenly works.
Even Texas’ pass protection didn’t improve. The grades were 62.2 against Mississippi State and 70.0 against Vanderbilt, neither of which are elite but just good enough. Offensively, Texas scored 24 points in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State as the Bulldogs ran out of gas. And the Commodores spent the entire game chasing losses and blowing assignments. Neither matchup produced drive-to-drive efficiency, improved early-down success or made any real difference on third downs. The Longhorns produced splash plays, but let’s not mistake that for credibility.
Even Manning’s statistics need context. He had 53 passing attempts against Mississippi State. It is simply highly variable and not sustainable. Vandy’s coverage bust led to easy throws, free yards and inflated yards after the catch. The turnover-worthy plays were still there, but they were masked by the matchup.
Georgia is not built like those defenses.
The Bulldogs tackle at an elite level, finishing explosively with discipline and putting pressure on everything down low. And because Texas’ offensive attack has not developed, that limits its range against a better defensive opponent. Against the improved defense, you see Texas capable of producing field-stretching throws but not consistently functional drives, and those issues will certainly matter in Athens, where the Dawgs are 61-6 at home since 2021 — the best home mark in college football.
Betting Ideas: Texas Team Totals under 21.5
This bet boils down to two truths that can cut right through the noise. First, Texas’ biggest offensive problem isn’t pressure, but a lack of consistency. The offense remains shaky – struggling on early downs, falling behind the chains – and lacks a reliable run game to create leverage.
In other words, Georgia doesn’t need a pass rush to beat Texas.
Why? Because Texas beats itself.
The Longhorns’ red-zone execution is one of the weakest among teams in the top 25, and face the longest third-down distance in FBS. Those are two problems that don’t go away simply because Georgia lacks a pass rush. Rhythm puts pressure on the quarterback and puts you in trouble in the timing window.
It’s not like that arch manningThis is not a Texas crime, The passing game has big plays but is high variance, and inconsistent on timing-based concepts, When a defense forces you to stack methodical drives instead of gambling on downfield bombs, it exposes every crack, Bulldogs are made for exactly that,
The second data point is Georgia’s discipline. The Bulldogs tackle at an elite level, limiting yards after contact and keeping everything in front, eliminating chaos, this is where Texas thrives. Take away the burst coverages and free windows downfield, then suddenly Texas shrinks.
Check out their worst offensive games against Ohio State, Florida and Kentucky. They didn’t win with defensive pressure, they won with structure, long drives, tight windows and no long gains. Texas can’t string together eight, 10, 12 plays, and when they can’t, they get stuck and stalled.
This is exactly the defensive style they’re going to run in, and that’s a problem. Georgia’s system neutralizes volatility, and Texas needs volatility to reach 22 points.
betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Texas is 0-4 ATS this season, one of six FBS teams that have not earned an ATS win on the road.
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Texas has four straight ATS and a complete loss against AP top-5 teams (0-3 since the start of last season).
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Georgia is 12-5 ATS vs. AP top-10 teams over the past five seasons, the most shutout wins in FBS during that span.
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Georgia is 8-15 ATS since the start of last season, fourth-worst among Power 4 teams.
