No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz plays No. 4 Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open men’s final – history is at stake. Will Alcaraz prevail and become the youngest man to win all four major titles? Or will Djokovic defy the odds to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Who will he be? Our expert breaks it down.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Djokovic?
D’Arcy Main: During Friday’s semifinals, Alcaraz battled bruises, cramps and even vomiting during a 5-hour, 27-minute encounter — not to mention some incredible play from Alexander Zverev — and still prevailed. Asked later how he managed to win despite the circumstances, Alcaraz said he “kept believing, believing all the time.”
And this is at the heart of what makes Alcaraz so good. He knows that no matter what, he can win and fights till the last point. Clearly, the better tennis player at this level, and with the physical advantage, if Alcaraz keeps the same fighting spirit and unfailing determination he has shown, it should be his victory.
Jake Michaels: Alcaraz’s revamped serve (from Djokovic no less!) has been his secret weapon this tournament. If he continues to serve his first serves at a high rate, he will be difficult to overcome, even for the greatest returners in tennis history.
Additionally, and this may sound incredibly backward considering he is 16 years younger than his opponent, but Alcaraz needs to finish the match quickly. After his epic, energy-boosting five-and-a-half-hour semi-final win over Zverev in the heat of the day, the longer this final goes on, the more the pendulum will swing in Djokovic’s favour. That’s not just because the 24-time major champion is fresh, having spent four less hours on the court to reach the final, but because he knows how to win when these legacy-defining Grand Slam matches go down.
Jarryd Barka: Obviously, this is the case for both players, but Alcaraz doesn’t need to re-invent the wheel; She just needs to be the best version of herself. The world No. 1 has shown no signs of slowing down throughout the tournament, taking out his first five opponents in straight sets, before enduring that thrilling, physically and mentally exhausting five-set semi-final with Zverev. He began to cramp and barely move during the closing stages of the third set, but Alcaraz showed the kind of determination we have long associated with Djokovic, overcoming a 3–5 deficit in the fifth set to win despite being far from his peak.
Strategically, diversity will be key. Alcaraz will have to disrupt Djokovic’s rhythm with changes of pace and direction, which Jannik Sinner did not do enough of during his loss in the semi-finals. Alcaraz will have to take Djokovic away and make him work for every point. If Alcaraz can tire the 38-year-old’s legs early and often, his equally jaw-dropping athleticism and creativity will tilt the match in his favour.
What can Djokovic do to defeat Alcaraz?
I have: While recovery will obviously be important for both players heading into Sunday’s final, it will also be crucial for Djokovic. At 38, Friday’s marathon semifinal will likely impress Djokovic more than the five-hour-plus battle endured by the 22-year-old Alcaraz. To win an elusive 25th major title – it’s impressive he’s even in this position – he’ll need Everything He has it.
And if Djokovic can find more gas in the tank, he will have to use the same strategy as he did during last year’s quarterfinal match. In that four-set win against Alcaraz, Djokovic lost the first set and, despite an apparent injury, then took control. He started scoring points aggressively, and started breaking groundstrokes and firing risky shots one after another and kept the pressure on till the end. But no matter what strategy Djokovic adopts, he will need to be at his best to achieve this victory.
Michaels: There was a huge difference in Djokovic’s conduct and level of play from the quarterfinals to the semi-finals. In the last eight against Lorenzo Musetti, Djokovic looked weak and almost indifferent as he lost the first two sets. But on Friday evening, in that fierce battle against Sinner, Djokovic once again looked like the man with the heart of a lion and the greatest tennis skills in history. For Djokovic to defeat Alcaraz on Sunday evening, he cannot waver for a second in his conduct from the quarterfinals. He has to remain aggressive. He must be ruthless. It should be animated. And if he can achieve all this, the crowd will surely support him and give him his 25th major title.
Barça: Similar to Alcaraz, it starts with the recovery, but the execution will decide everything, as was the case on Friday night. His serving against Sinner was exceptional, and it should be again, with Djokovic winning 86% of first-serve points in the second set and 77% of points in the fourth, using his precise placement to escape pressure and dictate the game. This allowed him to swing freely on his forehand throughout the match, playing with an aggression rarely seen in his career, but needed to upset the top two players in the world.
Djokovic will have to match that pace and intensity again against Alcaraz. But he does not need to surpass the Spaniard on every point. Djokovic will have to outwit him in big moments and find ways to repeat the 16 of 18 break points he saved against Sinner. This was the difference in the semi-finals. Limiting Alcaraz’s chances by staying strong, being brave and protecting his serve will go a long way in finding a way to win again.
Who will win?
I have: Alcaraz is the favorite, but we’ve all seen what Djokovic can do – and the magic he’s often found throughout his career. Although fatigue may be a factor, Djokovic knows this may be his best (and perhaps last) chance to achieve No. 25, and, as he did during the Olympic gold medal match against Alcaraz, he will give it his all to achieve it. I can’t choose against him. Djokovic in four sets.
Michaels: For years, I’ve written that no matter the circumstances, you can’t count out Djokovic at the Australian Open. He proved how true this is once again by defeating defending champion Sinner on Friday evening with one of the greatest performances of his illustrious career. At the age of 38, he should not be in the finals. He should not be able to come into conflict with this next generation. And yet, there he is. How can you choose against that? Djokovic would win in five thrilling sets.
Barça: Both men arrive at the finals battered and bruised. Alcaraz battled cramps to survive the third-longest match in tournament history against Zverev, while the experienced Djokovic produced one of the great performances of his career to defeat two-time defending champion Sinner in more than four hours despite his own physical struggles.
So, is recovery possible? Does one who wakes up really feel refreshed? Who avoids physical problems longer? Djokovic’s history matters a lot here. He has never lost an Australian Open final, has turned the tables once already this week and thrives when the stakes go up. Alcaraz may be the world number one, but Djokovic knows this stage better than anyone and may have the mental edge, leading 5-4. If Djokovic can produce anything close to his semifinal level again, it’s hard not to have confidence in him. Djokovic in five.
