divisional round of 2025 nfl playoffs It’s almost over.
A conference championship game is scheduled, as the Broncos will host the Patriots. afc championship game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will host the winner of its Rams–Bears Divisional Showdown In the NFC title game.
In anticipation of next weekend’s conference title game matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing they learned about the teams they covered during the divisional round. Seth Walder explores how each team might fare, and Matt Bowen picks an early X Factor. We also provided starting lines and game projections from ESPN football power index (FPI).
Go to Matchup:
NE-DEN
AFC
When: 3PM ET Sunday, CBS
FPI Launch: Northeast, 60% (from an average of 3.5 points)
First line: Northeast -4.5 (41.5)
What we learned about the Patriots in the divisional round: kayshon boute Might be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. His one-handed 32-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter on Sunday was a highlight-reel play and ultimately gave the Texans the win against the All-Pro cornerback. derek stingley jr., no less. The score was his fourth receiving TD on a deep fade/go route this season, including the playoffs (per ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats). That ranks second in the NFL behind the Bengals. t higgins (Six). Boutte played 55.4% of offensive snaps in the regular season, totaling 33 receptions for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns. –Mike Rees
What we learned about the Broncos in the divisional round: Call it another resounding confirmation of the Broncos’ resiliency. of denver overtime win The over the Bills was their 13th comeback win of the season, including playoffs; The Broncos set an NFL regular season record with 12. It was the Broncos’ sixth win this season in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. They blew a 23-10 lead, took the lead, lost it again in the final seconds of regulation, then escaped another overtime after a cornerback fumble Jaquan McMillianThe interception ended Buffalo’s winning streak. But now the quarterback bo nix‘S broken right ankle This will be another test for the Broncos in their quest for a fourth Super Bowl title. –Jeff Legvold
Why Patriots will win: jarrett stidham Starting for Denver. There are many reasons why the Patriots could and should win against the Broncos, but none are more impressive than Denver’s starting backup quarterback. And that means the Broncos are woefully outmatched in the most important phase of any football game – the passing offense.
It’s not just because of Stidham. In my opinion, the Patriots have an MVP this regular season. drake may According to NFL Next Gen stats, More Than Expected led the NFL in QBR and completion percentage. And although the Broncos’ pass rush and secondary will make life more difficult for Mays, he also led all quarterbacks in scramble rate (10.3%). Additionally, Denver’s defense is not in the same league as the Texans’, who the Patriots just beat.
Mei will hardly have to be perfect because of who is on the other side. The Broncos will be smaller with Stidham at quarterback, and that should be enough to have the best passing offense in the NFL. New England’s defense isn’t excellent, but it’s much better at defensive tackle milton williams On the field and at cornerback Christian GonzalezRecent improvements in the postseason. Unless things go unexpectedly awry, the Patriots should be Super Bowl-bound. –Walder
Why the Broncos will win: In light of the news that the Knicks are out for the season, we should change this prompt to ‘Why the Broncos’ can win. But there’s always a chance, and for the Broncos, it’s their defense based on what the Patriots do best. Denver’s defense must win the AFC Championship Game and receive a trip to the Super Bowl. But it can happen.
Broncos secondary boasts superstar cornerback Pat Surtain IIA strong nickel back and a strong safety in McMillian Talanoa Hufanga. The Broncos’ pass rush also has the advantage over New England’s offensive line. Powered by players like edge rusher Nick Bonitto and defensive tackle zach allenThe Broncos ranked third in pass rush win rate, giving them an edge over the Patriots offensive line that ranked 13th in pass block win rate.
As far as the Broncos’ biggest question is concerned, Stidham will be protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line. While Stidham is obviously a huge drop from the Knicks, the rest of Denver’s roster is loaded. This gives the Broncos a chance to make the move (albeit a long shot). –Walder
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CJ Stroud was hit 4 times by the Patriots in the first half.
CJ Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half for the Texans vs. the Patriots.
Initial X Factor: hunter henryTE, Patriots. The Broncos’ defense allowed an average of 59.7 receiving yards per game to opposing teams this season, and we just looked at Buffalo. Dalton Kincaid Catched six passes for 83 yards and a score in the divisional round. Henry can work on the seam, as well as be an outlet for the quarterback drake may. Additionally, Henry caught five touchdowns in the red zone this season. — Bowen
Matchup Background: The Broncos and Patriots haven’t played since 2023, when New England beat Denver 26-23 In Russell WilsonLast game with the Broncos. Denver has a 4-1 advantage over the Patriots in the playoffs, including an AFC Championship Game win 2013 And 2015 season’s. The latter, a 20–18 Broncos victory, came after the Patriots failed to convert a game-tying 2-point conversion in the final seconds. –ESPN
Statistics to know: Stidham’s last pass attempt of the game came January 7, 2024against the attackers. When the AFC Championship Game begins, it will have been 749 days since his last attempt. This would more than double the longest period between pass attempts for a QB starting a playoff game since 1950. The longest period that the web currently exists is 370 days, which ended when it was launched. 2012 wild-card loss For the Vikings. — espn research
nfc
When: 6:30 PM ET Sunday, Fox
What we learned about the Seahawks in the divisional round: The Seahawks may be the most complete team in the playoffs. Seahawks’ top-rated special teams tackle produced 95-yard touchdown return Rasheed Shaheed Saturday at the early kickoff. Seattle’s No. 1-ranked scoring defense held San Francisco to two field goals. Seattle’s run game continues to emerge, finishing with 175 yards and carrying most of the heavy lifting for the offense as the quarterback Sam Darnold fought through a oblique injury. The Seahawks look like Super Bowl contenders, even if Darnold is limited going forward. The supporting cast is equally good. — Brady Henderson
Matchup Background: The Seahawks and Rams split their two regular season meetings. Both were tight, because Ram was strong 21-19 The Seahawks won while at home in Week 11. 38-37 Overtime thriller in Week 16. They have also met twice in the playoffs, with the Rams winning both meetings, most recently defeating Seattle in the wild-card round following the 2020 season.
Meanwhile, the Bears and Seahawks last met in the 2024 season finale, with Seattle defeating Chicago 6-3 In a defensive battle. The Bears have won both playoff matchups between the teams, which has prevailed recently. 2010 NFC Divisional Playoffs. However, this will be their first postseason meeting in Seattle. — espn
Statistics to know: The Seahawks are 3–0 at home in conference championship games, and they are 3–0 all-time in NFC championship games. Their only loss in the conference championship game came on the road against the Raiders in the 1983 AFC Championship Game. — espn research
