Dark cloud was formed on Friday after President Trump’s economy July job reports In the last three months, he has shown the labor market that achieved only 106,000 jobs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report suggested that the economy and labor markets are much weaker than before, and will question whether the President’s tariff is preventing the regime from hiring businesses.
Reporting disappointing jobs and a combination of rising inflation also raises disturbing questions about whether the economy is lacking, where unemployment rises with prices.
Trump’s response to the report was fierce: He Fired BLS Commissioner Erica macnurferTo politicize the previous BLS reports in the run-up for last year’s presidential election, accusing him without proof.
In doing so, Trump suspected whether the report of future jobs, which are carefully analyzed worldwide for signs about the American economy, would be politicized and wrong.
The markets reacted disappointing to the news since May. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.2 percent to 542 points in the day. S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent of its value, and Tech-Havi Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3 percent.
The President noted the poor economic news this week, posting on the truth social, saying that “today’s number of jobs was rigged to create a Republican, and I feel bad” and reporters “we need someone honest” to tell in BLS.
The economy added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expectations of about 100,000 economists.
More importantly in the last two months there were massive amendments to the bottom. The economy added only 14,000 jobs in June, initially reported as 147,000. In May only 19,000 jobs were added in May after being reported as 144,000. The joint amendment showed 258,000 less jobs in the economy.
The Labor Department described the amendments in its monthly release as unusually large. Asked why they were so big, a representative of the department told The Hill that new information had come and pointed to the level of employment in the state and local government education sectors.
Trump’s response to the BLS head raised major red flags from economists.
Harvard economist Jason Furman said, “It is terrible. Reliable economic data is a major force of the US economy,” Hahrvard economist Jason Furman, who wrote in a comment headed by former President Obama’s White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA). “I don’t think the trump processes will be able to make the processes fake. But now there is a risk, as well as a terrible appearance.”
Economists at the White House admitted that the number was poor, pointing to the “discrepancy factors” related to seasonal adjustment.
“This jobs are not ideal,” the White House Council of Economic Advisors Chief Stephen Miran told CNN on Friday. There is no way around it. ” “The bottom modifications reflect an odd factors … about 60 percent of the downward modification is due to the strangeness of the seasonal adjustment process.
Jeffrey Frankel, an economist of Harvard, a former member of the National Bureau of Economic Research business bicycle dating committee, told The Hill that the number of earlier reports was more than the revised numbers for him, which he said that he said more understanding in terms of tariffs and is a widespread downturn.
“Constant strong number of which we thought we were previously discrepant,” he said.
The market participants expressed similar feelings throughout the day.
Zacks Investment Research’s senior market analyst Mark Wicker said that the labor market looks very weak compared to “very weak …”.
The White House is bending over Trump’s tariff scheme as a policy that will turn around the US economy and generate revenue and jobs for the country.
Trump on Thursday Signed an executive order This will modify tariff rates for dozens of trading partners starting on August 7 – pushed back from August 1 and July 9 – and from 41 percent to 10 percent on imports.
According to various estimates, the overall American tariff level now is about 17 to 18 percent.
Some countries interacted on business agreements to lock tariff rates, such as 19 percent for Indonesia and Thailand and 15 percent for South Korea, Japan and European Union. Others face high rates, such as Canada 35 percent and Brazil 50 percent.
In addition to the number of jobs disclosed to a struggling economy, this year’s predicted President’s Tariff Scheme would be one of the “pain” for the American consumer, in which companies are passing the cost of high tariffs to customers.
“He, and in itself, is a recipe for slow economic growth and high prices, and this is what he has got. So they have done so, and we have been promised that it is going to be worth it. We should work with this pain because we are going to get new steel mills and new aluminum factories.” “It takes years for any time to happen, so you are all the pain that receives for this year.”
The message out of the White House to pitch the President’s aggressive tariff policy is that more goods can be made in the US, reducing dependence on foreign goods.
However, the jobs report on Friday shown that 11,000 jobs were lost in July after 15,000 sheds in June.
“We are certainly not looking at a manufacturing renaissance. At this point, the data is showing contrast,” for the manufacturing and industrial policy, former Special Assistant of President Biden, Monica Gord, told The Hill.
Trump on Friday rejoined the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urged the Central Bank Board to control him. Such steps may dramatically shake the markets after Trump’s idea of going to Pavel at the beginning of this month, causing the shares to dip.
Fed on Wednesday voted to keep short -term interest rates at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, but was included in that vote. First double dissatisfaction From the Fed Board officials in more than 30 years.
Trump bowed on disintegration, called Powell “stubborn” and said that “the board should take control” after the President’s months, Powell was calling Powell to resign and go to tamper with going to remove him.
“What the President is compulsorily saying, ignore the fact that I am increasing every price in the economy. Do not worry about it. Cut rates and to save jobs. But he was not chosen for high prices, so he cannot say so.
Many forecasts predicted on Friday that the Fed would soon move forward to cut rates in view of the new clear weakness in the job market.
At Morningstar, US Economist Preseston Caldwell wrote on Friday, “Today’s figures should be a bang for Fed Chair Zerome Powell, who called Labor Market ‘Solid’ this week in the FOMC meeting press conference.”
Futures markets show 80 percent of the rate cut in the next meeting of Fed in September.
In addition to tariffs, the economy is in the middle of a gradual recession that has been running since the growing recovery from the Koronwirus epidemics, which was increased by trillions in fiscal stimulation, which had been taken over the years to filter through the economy.
Reports of Friday’s jobs suggest that moderation in circumstances may be ahead of already known.
“We are watching a recession in the economy,” Gordeman said. “Does it turn into a recession that I think is too early to predict.”
GDP increased by 2.9 percent in 2023, and the first half of last year increased by 2.5 percent. In the first half of this year, it increased by just 1.2 percent.
At its top, prices are also increasing with tariffs, causing potential staples. Personal consumption increased by an annual increase of 2.6 percent in June, while the consumer price index of the labor department increased to 2.7 percent annual growth.
Businesses are rapidly worried about normalizing new American tariff levels.
A trade group said in a Friday statement, “Since the Great Depression, the highest American duties in association with institutionally, ongoing uncertainty, will eventually make American businesses globally less competitive and spoil consumers.”
