Which men’s and women’s basketball teams would NCAA tournament expansion benefit?

After years of anticipation and debate, all signs point to NCAA Tournament expansion being imminent.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel informed On Tuesday, the NCAA began the final steps to expand the men’s and women’s tournaments from 68 to 76 teams, starting with the upcoming 2026-27 season — leaving a number of questions that will need to be answered when the NCAA makes an official announcement.

ESPN’s resident bracketologists Charlie Cream and Joe Lunardi can now answer some of those, however, starting with which programs will benefit the most.

Which programs benefit the most: power conferences or mid-majors?

Lunardi: The expansion of the NCAA Tournament continues the multiyear pendulum swing in favor of power conferences. This is a natural extension of the expanded conferences, as the current alliance of power conferences and the Big East consists of 79 schools compared to 73 schools a decade ago. Each of those programs hopes to make the NCAA Tournament every season, so the pressure of a “bigger” tournament was never going to subside, despite the overwhelming feeling that more teams would not necessarily make for a “better” tournament.

Those expecting a glut of additional mid-majors in the 76-team field are likely to be disappointed. Apart from the recent and extremely rare example of Miami (Ohio), the bubble has consisted primarily of mediocre power-conference members as well as high-end contenders from mid-major leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, American, and West Coast Conferences. We can also expect the resurgent Pac-12 to be part of the mix in a big way.

For better or worse, the days of earning at-large bids at Belmont or Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion are likely gone. This only changes if the NCAA adopts a tournament eligibility level, such as requiring a conference record of .500 or better for at-large consideration, in which case they risk breaking out of the big boys to form their own tournament before agreeing to any such restrictions.

The more likely outcome of all this maneuvering is an extension of the uneasy peace between the haves and the have-nots, as both power-conference dominance and all existing automatic qualifiers are preserved – at least until the current tournament television contract expires in 2032.

Is the same true for women also?

Cream: The women’s tournament is no different. While a few more mid-majors could enter the field at the opportune moment — the Ivy League added three teams to the 68-team field in 2025 — the expansion is another win for the power conference. The system behind NCAA Tournament selection is already tilted in their favor. Adding more teams doesn’t change this.

As Joe pointed out above, the bubble – even the teams on the wrong side of it – is still largely made up of teams from the power four conferences.

Once January arrives and league play begins, teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC play only intraconference foes, which only helps increase the metrics evaluated by the committee. The best mid-major teams have no opportunity to strengthen their resumes after the New Year, whether it’s improving NET or strength of schedule rankings or gaining a viable eye test, because they typically aren’t playing other tournament-qualified opponents. That’s why 10 teams ranked between 45 and 60 in net at the end of the 2025-26 season were from Power 4 conferences. This is the same group that the committee will consider the longest to add eight more teams to the NCAA Tournament.

Joe mentioned it. If the NCAA came up with an expansion of the minimum winning percentage standard for tournament eligibility, it would be something college basketball consumers would actually accept. Otherwise, this move has taken away one of the purest pieces of our sports culture that even casual fans understand — the bracket — and turned it into something even fanatics will struggle to understand.

Which teams would have made the cut last season?

Teams are listed in order of “first four out” and “next four out”

Cream (Women): BYU, North Dakota State, utah, Texas A&M, mississippi state, stanford, kansas, Indiana

Including the state of North Dakota would support the argument. For Expansion. The Bison went 26–4 to win the regular season title, so a bid to join Summit League “bid thief” South Dakota State would have been a nice reward. But a closer look reveals that seven of the eight teams above represent otherwise power conferences.

On the other side of the coin is Texas A&M, an SEC team with a losing conference record and a 14–12 mark overall. The Aggies needed a five-game winning streak at the end of the regular season to finish two games above .500, but did not win a game in the SEC Tournament, and lost 20 to McNeese in the Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament.

Lunardi (male): oklahoma, golden brown color, san diego state, new mexico, Indiana, stanford, cincinnati, seton hall

San Diego State and New Mexico have both been consistent NCAA Tournament appearances from the Mountain West, so you’ll notice there are no “true” mid-majors in this group.

Which teams do you predict will make it this season?

Teams listed in order of “first four out” and “next four out” groups from the first edition of the men’s and women’s 2027 bracketology projections

Lunardi (male): oregon, oklahoma, Thrift, Xavier’s, Marquette, utah state, smu, CLEMSON

Then again, only Utah State comes from outside the power conference and Big East alliance – and the Aggies have been to four straight tournaments (and six of the last eight).

Cream (Women): michigan state, san diego state, North Dakota State, Indiana, Arizona, kansas state, California, Georgia

While it’s not easy to make predictions about next year 11 months in advance and without evaluating any games, the above list tells a similar story to 2026. In terms of how San Diego State should be classified based on its role in the rebirth of the Pac-12, the Bison and Aztecs are the only representatives of non-power conferences. Adding the Spartans and Hoosiers to the field would mean 14 of the 18 Big Ten teams will be in the NCAA Tournament. Logic dictates that the teams finishing 13th and 14th in any league, no matter how big – look at the English Premier League table, for example – will be sub-.500 in that conference. Oregon and Nebraska, ranked 11th and 12th this season, finished with losing Big Ten records and received at-large bids. Expansion projects to bring it to four next year.