Four weeks in, the MLB landscape looks much different than we thought it would in the 2026 season. cincinnati reds Tied for the third-best record in baseball with pittsburgh pirates Not far behind; New York Mets NL East’s basement dwellers, Had to face defeat in 12 consecutive matches; philadelphia phillies Large companies have the worst performance gap; Athletics top AL West Houston Astros on the bottom; and this boston red sox And toronto blue jays Has struggled to commit crimes.
It’s hard to know this early in the season which numbers are realistic, but every year, certain early stats predict a breakout season or the emergence of an unexpected contender.
With that in mind, we asked our MLB experts to identify the most fascinating numbers from the first few weeks and analyze everything they tell us so far about the 2026 season.
Jeff Passan: 9.9%. The walk rate in MLB is hovering around 10%, a historically high figure that reflects a 16% increase in bases on balls from last season. That’s a staggering number, higher than every other season but three – 1948, 1949, 1950 – in MLB’s century and a half history. So what’s going on? Certainly the automated ball-strike system, which has standardized the strike zone and eliminated pitches that were previously called strikes, has something to do with it. Beyond the challenges, everyone — pitchers, hitters, umpires — is adjusting to a new field, and that’s the kind of thing that changes behavior.
How? Well, start with the swing rate: It’s down 1.4 percentage points from last year. The zone rate – the percentage of pitches in the rule book zone – is even more pronounced: 47.2% after 50.7% last year. And then consider the individual elements. Pitchers are throwing more changeups and splitters, which are typically designed to land out of the strike zone for swing-and-misses. His breaking balls are spinning more than ever. His sinkers, a pitch on the rise in usage, are running horizontally out of the field.
Put all those elements together and it’s a recipe for more outings. More walks, as well as time for challenges, means longer games. After breaking out from an average playing time of 2:36 in the 2024 season, the first month of MLB games this year are averaging 2:42 — and that’s before the expected increase in offense as the season warms up.
Kiley McDaniel: 78 mph. he is cam smithBat speed of. He had early professional success chicago cubs After going 14th overall in the 2024 draft, hitting .313 with seven home runs in 32 games and reaching Double-A that year. He headlined the Astros’ return package kyle tucker Months later and spent the entire 2025 season in the big leagues for Houston, but was more good than great, hitting .236 with nine homers in 134 games.
Smith is off to a great start this season (three homers and five doubles through 25 games) but has been 21st unluckiest hitter in baseball So far this season. But there is more than meets the eye, as his bat speed has increased by 3.5 mph, moving him up from 36th in bat speed in baseball last season. fourth In this weather. He’s not just swinging more wildly: His contact rates are up, his swing rates are lower and his attack angle is more geared for power, so there’s plenty of runway to improve his stats from here.
David Schoenfield: 71.1%. he is mason millerStrikeout rate of. Is it too early to start thinking about a reliever as a potential Cy Young winner? That hasn’t happened since Eric Gagne in 2003, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility in Miller’s case. It’s only 11 appearances and 11⅓ innings, but Miller is in the midst of one of the most unbeaten stretches we’ve seen, striking out 27 of the 38 batters he’s faced while only allowing two hits. And this isn’t just a three-week hot streak in April. Miller finished last season with 21⅓ scoreless innings, allowing only four hits. That’s six hits in 32⅔ innings. Feels very good. With Miller and the rest of their dominant bullpen, San Diego Padres Making a great start.
Alden Gonzalez: 6.19. This is the Astros’ rotation ERA, which ranks last in the majors. And though it’s early, it validates one of the primary concerns about this team heading into the season. It may also speak to a larger theme – about how their dominance could end.
Houston’s streak of seven consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series was broken in 2024. The following year, the team’s playoff run ended. And if this problem persists into 2026, the streak of 11 consecutive winning seasons could be in jeopardy.
Astros ace Hunter Brown has a shoulder strain he hopes is not serious. Christian Xavier Dealing with similar issue. Tatsuya Imai signs on to help fill massive void framber valdezStruggled a lot upon arrival from Japan and was diagnosed with arm fatigue. Those three help make up an injured list made up of seven starting pitchers. The next layer of depth is not what it used to be. In addition to them- mike burroughs, Ryan Weiss And peter lambert — has combined for a 6.80 ERA.
It’s all about going together josh haider Still working my way back from biceps tendinitis and setup man brian abreu This could be disastrous for the 2026 Astros.
Jorge Castillo: 13. One potential area of concern for the Red Sox entering the season was their power following the trade. rafael devers got away last may and lost alex bregman In free agency this winter. So far, that concern is very real. The Red Sox are last in the majors with 13 home runs in 23 games. wilson contreras And willier abreu There are seven of them. roman anthony, jerren duran, marcelo mayor And sedan rafela There is one each. Boston ranks 29th in slugging and 30th in isolated power. As a result, the team has been held to three or fewer runs in 12 games. It is possible that electricity may be generated when temperatures rise in Boston. The Red Sox need this.
Bradford Doolittle: .239. League batting averages will increase as the weather gets warmer but the problem of low averages is not going away. By the end of the season the averages may or may not be lower than in previous years – but, more importantly, it confirms that there is no sign of batting averages returning to the levels of 10 to 15 years ago. This current style of play is certainly aesthetic, but it is nonetheless consequential because action results in inaction, not something that is healthy for any sport.
Problem 1: We still have too few balls to play. Strikeouts, which count against batting average, are at extreme levels, but so are walks — and we’ve seen record levels of hits by pitches. These are good results for the offense, but they do nothing for the batting average, and while walks can be dramatic, it’s not the kind of action that sells tickets.
Problem 2: Balls put into play are not turning into hits at their former level. The statistical term for this is BABIP and the .289 mark this season would be the lowest since 1992, although, like average, it will increase somewhat over the course of the season. But it won’t get close to the “healthy” benchmark of .300. I was hoping that the ban on highly defensive transfers would get us back to that level. It just didn’t happen.
The curse of a league with too high a three-point true-outcome baseball batting average – too many plate appearances that end with a strikeout, walk or home run. They’re fine in moderation, but we need everything else too.
Buster Olney: 30. This is a ranking of the Mets’ offensive production against the fastball. During New York’s winless road trip through Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field, what was striking was how aggressive opposing pitchers were against the Mets – competitively offensive might be a better way to put it – just hitting them with fastballs. So far this season, the Mets have a .640 OPS versus the fastball (four-seamer, two-seamer, cutter), which ranks last in the majors. His run value on pitches faster than 97 mph is minus-6. He is also at 30th position.
Jesse Rogers: 0.28. You have to squint to pay attention jose sorianoThe era of. Hitters can’t touch him right now, as he has every pitch working, starting with his nasty sinker, which has produced a .056 batting average. Last year, that number was .290! At least they’re breaking up his split finger – to the tune of a batting average of .059. The ball is traveling exactly where Soriano wants it right now, resulting in a career-best 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He has given up only one run – a solo homer. drake baldwin – This means he is 100% perfect at trapping the few runners who have reached base against him. It’s an incredible four weeks of the season. It’s hard to know what’s sustainable this early in the season — probably not a 0.28 ERA or a .056 batting average — but Soriano’s improvements aren’t entirely unexpected. He is easily an early contender for the American League Cy Young.
