Your NCAA championship guide: Michigan vs. UConn predictions, keys to winning

INDIANAPOLIS — Who will cut down the net at Lucas Oil Stadium?

ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down the keys to Michigan and UConn in Monday’s national championship (8:50 p.m. ET) and make their predictions below.

The player who needs to step forward: paid off

whoever saw Yaxel Lendeborg after that he continued Left MCL sprain and left ankle sprain Saturday could tell he wasn’t 100%. It’s unclear how much the All-American, who is expected to play against after completing just 14 minutes of action Arizonacan be limited. Either way, Michigan could use the boost it got from Mara in Lendeborg’s limited availability in the semifinals.

The 7-foot-3 center made sure Michigan didn’t miss a single opportunity when its best player was not on the court. When Lendeborg left the game with 8:51 to play in the first half, the Wolverines led by 14 points. At halftime they were ahead by 16 points. Mara was instrumental in their ability to maintain their defensive excellence – they limited Arizona to 37% shooting from the field – and maintain their offensive production (120 points per 100 possessions) while sidelining Lendeborg. Mara finished with a game-high 26 points, nine rebounds and two blocks, and he may have to carry a heavy load on Monday. However, based on what he did on Saturday, he is ready for this role.

Potentially Fatal Defects: Effective passing from UConn.

Michigan’s defense is built on length that only a few teams in the country can match, but it doesn’t have many weaknesses. As the shot clock slows down, even good teams are forced to make tough shots against the Wolverines, and perhaps more importantly, resort to isolation play rather than using good passing to make better shots.

Why does that matter? In Michigan’s three losses, its opponent had at least one player who recorded six or more assists, and those teams collectively averaged a 64% assist rate. No team has done this against the Wolverines in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona finished with just five total assists and a 19% assist rate against the Wolverines.

Every team that beat Michigan this season used effective passing to penetrate America’s best defense. UConn needs to do the same.

Michigan will win if: The Wolverines can guard UConn’s perimeter players.

Alex Karban, Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball were a handful Illinois The team that had to chase them off screens during Saturday’s game – first Mullins’ 3-pointer and his dagger were both set up by a pair of pindown screens from Tyrese Reed Jr. with 52 seconds remaining. Later, Ball beat Illinois from the court on a fast-break dunk, and Karban hit a 3-pointer in the corner after confusing the Illini on a slip screen.

The Huskies never stop rotating in their half-court set, which will put pressure on a Michigan lineup that features three big men who will have to guard in space to stifle UConn’s offensive attack. That defensive approach will require a lot of energy from the Wolverines. — medcalf

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No. 2 UConn vs. No. 1 Michigan Game Preview

Check out some stats on the matchup between UConn and Michigan in the men’s NCAA Tournament.

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The player who needs to step forward: alex karban

Karaban is 40 minutes away from cementing himself as possibly the most successful player in the history of college basketball not playing for UCLA — a win would make him only the 14th player and first non-Bruin to win three national championships — but he’ll have to play a big role for UConn to get over the final hurdle. He looked like the Huskies’ most important player in the early stages of the NCAA Tournament, scoring 22 points in the first round against. firman27 points in the second round UCLA And 17 points against the Sweet 16 michigan state. He shot 11 of 25 from 3-point range in those three games. But over his last two games, Karaban has totaled 14 points on 3-for-18 shooting from the field and 2-for-13 shooting from 3-point range.

On paper, he poses a matchup problem for Michigan, given his endless off-ball movement on offense, running around screens or pindowns. Morez Johnson Jr.. Carbone may have trouble keeping up, and the Wolverines’ switching defense may be a step slower as a result, but it will only matter if the senior forward makes them pay by making shots.

Potentially Fatal Defects: Free throw battle.

UConn ranks sub-300 in both free throw attempt rate and defensive free throw attempt rate, and has not attempted more free throws than an opponent since a February 28 win. seton hallWhich comes against a Michigan team that ranks in the top three of the Big Ten in free throw rate on both ends.

Foul trouble became a big issue for UConn in the second half against Illinois on Saturday, and while coach Dan Hurley was able to steal extended minutes with only one starter on the court, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do the same against Michigan. It’s also a simple factor to avoid giving the Wolverines easy points at the line when they are already one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, capable of scoring around the rim at will, consistently making 3s and overwhelming teams in transition. UConn can’t let them dominate the free throw differential either.

UConn will win if: Huskies make shots and taris reed jr. Stays on the court.

Despite UConn’s excellent defense, Michigan is going to score points, so the Huskies will have to stay consistent on the offensive end – which comes down to shotmaking on the perimeter and reads around the rim.

Carbon needs to break out of its mini recession, and Braylon Mullins And solo ball Shots have to be made. It’s really hard to beat Michigan only on tough 2’s given Ade Mara’s dominance around the rim, so UConn should lean on volume 3-point shooting just like it did in the win over Illinois. The Huskies attempted more 3-point shots than they have in nearly two months (33 compared to just 29 2-pointers) and made a Final Four program record 12 3s on Saturday.

Down the stretch, Reed needs to continue winning his paint battles. Mara has been fantastic, but Reed has been the best player in the NCAA Tournament. This may reveal whether Reed is scoring consistently on Mara. And Can stay out of foul trouble on the other end against Mara and Johnson. — Borzello

NCAA Championship Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Michigan, 79-75
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 83-73