2026 NFL draft running back projections: Rankings, comps

Conventional wisdom about running backs 2026 nfl draft is that jeremiah love (Notre Dame) is far ahead of the rest of this somewhat disappointing class. My backcast projection system has the same opinion.

last yearNine running backs had backcasts over 40%. This year, Love is the only one who crosses this threshold. However, there are still several backs who have positive projections and should be productive NFL players.

Backcast projects are finding success in the NFL based on data that has correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size/speed combination, has a higher average yards per carry and represents a larger percentage of his college team’s running game is more likely to be successful at the pro level.

The Backcast considers these factors and projects the extent to which a running back will exceed the NFL production of an “average” drafted running back during his first five seasons. For example, a running back with a plus-50% backcast is projected to gain 50% more yards than the “average” drafted running back. The backcast also projects whether each player is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more likely to be behind “ground-and-pound”.

Here are some notable backcast projections for the prospects available in the 2026 draft. (Note: I wrote about these running backs so I could lump two teammates together.) Let’s start with a former pair of Fighting Irish.

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Methodology: How it works

Backcast Score: 89.0%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 1
Back Type: balanced
Similar historical possibilities: travis etienne jr., todd gurley (but lighter)

Backcast Score: minus-46.4%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 71
Back Type: ground-and-pound
Similar historical possibilities: miles sanders, bilal powell

Love is a very good possibility, but the backcast suggests it’s not generational. Although he is far ahead of the rest of this year’s class, Love is not even among the top 25 running back prospects according to backcast scores since 1998. (Even the same prospects listed above, Etienne and Gurley, had higher scores when entering the draft.) On the other hand, of all the running backs in our database who averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in college and weighed between 205 and 220 pounds, Love (212 pounds) ran the fastest 40-yard dash at 4.36 seconds.

Scouts are high in love in every way: running, receiving and even intercepting passes – which we’re not measuring here. But as productive as Love was in college, I wouldn’t suggest using a high first-round pick on him — especially since most of the teams that have been linked to Love fake draft You don’t have the offensive line quality you need to help a star fulfill his potential.

Backcast is quite negative about the price. Yes, there’s a reason Price was a small part of the Notre Dame running game and only had 113 carries last season. He also had six receptions for 87 yards last season. But the argument in Price’s favor is that he had less stuff in college because he was sharing the backfield with Love! The counterargument is that hyped college running back duos perform poorly in the NFL: lendale white And reggie bush, ronnie brown And cadillac williamsOr Darren McFadden And felix jones.

Backcast Score: 36.3%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 152
Back Type: balanced
Similar historical possibilities: Jai Ajayi, kenneth gainwell

The next six running back prospects listed here are essentially indistinguishable based on backcast projections. Coleman’s career is interesting because over the last two seasons his average yards per carry has dropped from 6.8 in 2023 (at Arizona) to 5.5 in 2024 and then 4.9 last season. However, his rushing touchdown total increased from five to 10 to 15 each season. Coleman also had an impressive 31 catches for 354 yards and two touchdowns in 2025.

Backcast Score: 33.4%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 150
Back Type: balanced
Similar historical possibilities: toby gerhart, Doug Martin

Randall is the biggest back in this year’s class at 232 pounds, and he’s received more receiving value than you typically see from a back of his size. He’s a converted wide receiver who, in some ways, is still learning how to play running back.

Although he ran a 4.5-second 40 at the combine, which is one of the slower results of the 2026 class, scouts generally feel Randall combines quick cuts with enough top-end speed to get explosive play.

Backcast Score: 32.2%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 89
Back Type: ground-and-pound
Similar historical possibilities: latavious murray, nyle davis

Washington ran a 4.33-second 40 at 223 pounds, which put him close to the record for Speed ​​Score, which is a metric based on combining 40 time with weight (because running faster is more impressive when you’re bigger). But Washington’s college production was low, partly because he played at three schools (Buffalo, New Mexico State, Arkansas). Last season, he rushed for a career-high 1,070 yards. He also has significant ball security issues, with 10 fumbles on 587 career carries.

Backcast Score: 28%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 104
Back Type: balanced
Similar historical possibilities: keshawn vaughn, israel abanikanda

Backcast Score: 21.6%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 146
Back Type: ground-and-pound
Similar historical possibilities: tatum bell, ontario smith

Singleton and Allen’s projections start with the same issues we have with Love and Price, but this time the backcasts like both backs. In fact, the backcast likes Singleton slightly better, even though Allen was clearly the preferred back for the Penn State coaches (210 carries compared to Singleton’s 123) and 2025 had more yards per carry (6.2 to 4.5).

game

Kytron Allen runs for a 15-yard rushing touchdown

Kytron Allen runs for a 15-yard rushing touchdown

Singleton had better success last season, finishing with 172 carries for 1,099 yards and 6.4 yards per carry as a junior. Allen had 220 carries for 1,108 yards and 5.0 yards per carry in 2024. Singleton was also a better receiver in 2025, with 219 receiving yards compared to only 68 for Allen.

Backcast Score: 25.9%
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 186
Back Type: balanced
Similar historical possibilities: keonte ingram, javorius allen

McGowan created a stir with his performance at the combine. He had a vertical jump of 42½ inches, which was the second-best jump for a running back at the combine since at least 2007. His broad jump of 10 feet 11 inches was also the top among running backs this year.

The Backcast doesn’t consider any of these exercises, but it does consider a 4.49-second 40 time at 223 pounds, as well as 5.2 yards per carry in college. However, scouts don’t have as high a grade on McGowan, and he’s sometimes been troubled by pass rush issues and a lack of explosive carries.

Note about the table below: The RecIndex reflects how much each player is getting back, with positive numbers equaling more value received and negative numbers equaling less.

*Did not run 40 on combine, estimated time based on weight.
** Did not run 40 at combine, time listed for Pro Day.

Methodology

The Backcast is based on statistical analysis of Division I halfbacks drafted over the years 1998–2023, and measures the following:

• Weighing the possibilities at the combine.

• The prospect’s 40-yard dash at the combine. If he did not run, the backcast uses his Pro Day time, and if he did not run the backcast uses a 40 projection based on weight and projected draft position.

• Yards per attempt probability with adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than the average drafted back.

• A prospect’s “AOEPS”, which measures how much the prospect’s team on average used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of the average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.

• The prospect’s receiving yards per game in his college career.

Backcast was developed by Nathan Forster.