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Aaron Schatz
multiple authors
2026 nfl draft The edge is good for rushers, with seven players projected to go in the first round. Our SackSacks Projection System – which predicts sack totals in a player’s first five pro seasons – is in consensus agreement on several of this year’s top prospects. We also identify some strong candidates whose explosive attributes make them worth a chance despite average collegiate sack production.
It is very difficult to project players from college to professional, and there is a wide range of possibilities. So while you might be surprised that there isn’t a prospect with more than six sacks per season, keep in mind that obviously some of them will end up as double-digit sack performers, while others will struggle and miss games for long periods of time.
One big change at Sackseer for this year is that we have removed the consideration of three-cone drill timing. This is the biggest victim of declining participation in predraft drills, as only two edge rushers ran the three-cone at the combine this year. We can’t use it to judge players if no one is actually going to do it!
According to our model, here are the rankings of the top edge rusher prospects for 2026. We also identified a strong sleeper and a potentially overrated candidate.
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underrated | arrogant
full saxir ranking
Methodology: How it works
Saxir Projection: 26.6 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 7
Similar historical possibilities: khalil mack, demarcus ware
Bailey led the FBS with 14.5 sacks last season, and he’s clearly the sack favorite for 2026. He is the only prospect in this year’s draft who combines excellent collegiate sack production with a stellar workout, boasting a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical and a 10-foot-9 broad jump.
Saxir Projection: 23.5 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 24
Similar historical possibilities: preston smith, everson griffen
Faulk is the heaviest edge rusher in this year’s class at 278 pounds. A 35-inch vertical is impressive for a player who lifts his own weight, as he ran a 40 time of 4.67 seconds at his pro day.
Faulk will turn 21 in September, so he’s coming into the league at a young age. He played all three of his collegiate seasons at Auburn, where he had 10 career sacks and started in his sophomore and junior seasons.
Saxir Projection: 23.1 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 17
Similar historical possibilities: robert quinn, Yetur Gross-Matos
Parker regressed from having 11 sacks as a sophomore in 2024 to just five sacks as a junior in 2025, but that may make him less valuable entering this year’s draft. There is a history of edge rushers who dominate as sophomores and then take a step back as juniors when opponents pay more attention to them.
Parker may not be directly compared to the NFL’s best defensive players, but miles garrett An example of this is when he went from 12.5 sacks as a sophomore to 8.5 sacks as a junior. Jadeveon Clowney Went from 13 sacks as a sophomore to just three sacks as a junior.
Saxir Projection: 23.0 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 3
Similar historical possibilities: Micah Parsons, camerion wimbley
Reese is a difficult player to project for Sacksier because he was never a full-time edge rusher in college. However, many people are comparing him to Parsons in this regard, and Sacksier’s numbers agree.
Reese had 6.5 sacks last season, but only 0.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2024. He did not have a vertical jump or broad jump at the combine, but his 4.46-second 40 was the fastest among edge rushers.
Saxir Projection: 21.1 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 22
Similar historical possibilities: whitney mercilus, alden smith
Saxir Projection: 21.0 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 16
Similar historical possibilities: nick bossa, greg russo
These teammates come out with almost similar saccharine measurements. Messidor had more sacks last season (12.5 compared to Benn’s 9.5), but the SRAM (modified sack rate) variable takes into account that Messidor was in his sixth season of college eligibility while Benn was only in his third. Messidor will be 25 on draft day, while Bain won’t turn 22 until September.
Ben’s shorts are being discussed a lot arm length (30⅞ inches), but that’s not something we include in these estimates.
underrated edge rusher
Saxir Projection: 18.5 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 78
Similar historical possibilities: Joseph Ossai, jamie collins senior.
Lawrence did not have good statistics in college, having only seven sacks as a senior in 2025. But Sacksir likes him as a sleeper prospect because he was excellent in his workouts and thus scores very high on the explosiveness index. Lawrence ran a 40 of 4.52 seconds with a 40-inch vertical and a 10-foot-10 broad jump.
trey moore (texas) and dani dennis-sutton (Penn State) Lawrence has similar prospects, though Saxier and is slightly lower in draft expectations. Dennis-Sutton was the only gainer at this year’s combine with a longer broad jump (10-foot-11) than Lawrence.
exaggerated edge runner
Saxir Projection: 16.4 sacks by year 5
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 30
Similar historical possibilities: Uchenna Nwosu, andre branch
Young is the most likely to disappoint among first-round prospects. His collegiate sack production was moderate, with only 6.5 sacks his senior year and only five combined sacks in the three seasons before that. His 4.70-second 40 is also pretty average.
Methodology
SackSEER is based on statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2021 and measures the following:
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Projected draft position of edge rushers. Specifically, the rankings of ESPN’s Scouts Inc.
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An “explosion index” that measures a prospect’s scores in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump in predraft workouts.
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A metric called “SRAM”, which stands for modified sack rate. The SRAM measures a prospect’s per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry into the NFL Draft and position switches during college.
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The prospect’s college passes defensed per game.
SackSEER was developed by Nathan Forster.
