Fantasy baseball: Five pitchers poised for a breakout season

The opening weeks of the new baseball season can be especially difficult to navigate.

Statistical samples are small, “overreaction theater” is a sellout every night, and every hot-starting player seems destined to have a breakthrough season or, if not drafted, the “pickup of the year.” This is also a time when imaginary manager Are Itching To make a massive change to the roster that was implemented just a few days ago. This means it’s prime time to capitalize on the mistakes of others… but also to make sure You Don’t make the same mistakes yourself.

The simple solution is to be confident in your preseason draft preparation and be diligently patient in early April. but we have to make Some? Decisions based on small statistical samples, or risk missing out on potentially league-winning prospects.

This becomes especially difficult when it comes to starting pitchers, most of whom have only made one start so far. Thanks to the many advanced metrics available to us these days, however, we are able to make far more informed decisions about lightly used starters. Again, wholesale changes to the pitching side are unwise at this early stage – so, no need to panic Paul Skenes‘Nightmarish opening day outing, which largely affected oneil cruz’ s defensive mistakes and saw the right-handed batsman post similar velocity and speed on his pitches! Still, some findings have already made me think twice about the preseason evaluations of some starters.

The following five pitchers have early metrics that indicate they have 2026 statistical ceilings. excess More than anticipated. If you list them, avoid trading them, and if you don’t, consider making an offer while the asking price may still be realistic.

cam schlitler, New York Yankees

Only three pitchers scored more than Schlitzer’s 25 fantasy points in their first regular season start, and his stuff looked as dirty as we saw in his two 2025 postseason appearances on the national stage. Schlitzer is still dialing his fastball up above 98 mph, and he’s now leaning more on a cutter that has been effective against left-handed hitters (.200 BAA, 24.1% miss and 31.3% hard-hit rate between the 2025 regular season/postseason, 2026 spring training and his debut last Friday).

The Yankees don’t have any serious concerns about Schlitler’s workload, which makes sense considering he’s projected for 120⅔ innings in 2024 and 149⅔ innings in 2025 (164, if you include the postseason). It might seem insulting to declare his ceiling firmly in the top 10 for 2026, given that he’s made only 17 starts as a big leaguer (again, counting his playoff work) and wasn’t even considered a blue-chip prospect, but his stuff certainly makes him a compelling case.

shohei ohtani, los angeles dodgers

I couldn’t have been more surprised by any spring training development than when Ohtani returned from the World Baseball Classic and, four days later, threw 61 pitches after not pitching a single ball in a structured game since October… and looking great doing it. Six days after that he threw 86 more pitches, generating a 40% whiff rate on swings in his two outings and finishing with 15 strikeouts among the 34 hitters he faced — and he threw another 87 in his regular season debut on Tuesday, which included six shutout innings of one-hit baseball worth 22 fantasy points.

While Ohtani was actively throwing bullpen sessions before and during the WBC, the 87 pitches are still more than he threw in all but two of his 14 regular season starts last season, making it as strong a sign as any that the Dodgers consider him a full-time member of their rotation for 2026.

Yes, we all know Ohtani will likely always be in the MVP conversation as a solo hitter… but If While the Dodgers are ready to challenge Ohtani for his career-high of 166 innings (2022) — and I suspect they might — his 2025 upside in terms of velocity, control and whiff rate gives him a legitimate shot at a 1,000-point (550 hitting, 450 pitching) season. We may have yet to see Ohtani’s MVP-level pitching come to life. Very good!

shota imanaga, chicago cubs

An unusual entry on the list, Imanaga’s 2025 fantasy production took a step back — and he was hardly stellar in his first start this season (5 IP, 4 ER). However, look deeper into the numbers, and he has made some interesting progress in terms of his pitch repertoire, which could make him an early trade target.

Thanks to the improvements he made with his sweeper at the end of last season, his already sound splitter, and a two-tick increase in his average fastball velocity between spring training and the start of his first regular season, Imanaga posted a 20.1% swinging strike rate during spring training. This was the third-best rate among any current rotation member. After he generated a 39.5% whiff rate in his debut in 2026, his pitching line was undone by three runs joey wiemer Home run. However, depending on progress in his pitch repertoire, Imanaga may be able to recapture his 2024 performance levels, if not better.

Chase Burns, cincinnati reds

Burns’ fantasy value took a hit during spring training, when Reds management considered a three-man piggybacking arrangement between them. rate loader And brandon williamson To fill their final two rotation spots. If you watched Burns’ Monday season debut (five innings of one-hit ball with seven K), you saw what makes the 23-year-old right-hander one of the most exciting young starters in the game.

Since his MLB debut on June 24, 2025, Burns has struck out 34.1% of his at-bats between the regular season and preseason, the best rate by any pitcher who has faced at least 278 batters. A 98-plus-mph fastball and slider that generated a 60% whiff rate between spring training and Opening Week — seriously, it is! — will do so. Expect the Reds to be cautious with Burns — a key part of their future and a pitcher who dealt with flexor issues late last year — but if he even gets 140 innings, he could be a top-20 positional fantasy performer.

jack liter, Texas Rangers

He is a hidden horse on the list, but Leiter’s gradual rise over the past nine months, combined with his potential front-row pedigree, makes him an attractive breakthrough 2026 candidate. He scored eight runs in Monday’s start baltimore oriolesThis marks the fourth time in his last eight regular seasons that he has recorded at least that many, while his 21 swing-and-misses are the third-most by any pitcher in a game so far (Jakub Misiorowski 25, dialing off 24).

The addition of a cutter has helped diversify Leiter’s pitch repertoire, providing a nice contrast against his 97-plus-mph fastball and elite changeup, meaning the increase in his strikeout rate could be sustainable. Keep in mind he scored 158 fantasy points in the second half last season (more than just 20 pitchers overall) and that was First Arrival of his new pitch. Leiter could peak as a top-25 starter.