MILAN — Since women’s hockey was introduced as an Olympic sport in 1998, the only two teams that have won gold medals are the United States and Canada.
This will remain true this year. The rest of the world is beginning to catch up, with rising programs from Sweden, Czechia and even Switzerland surprisingly making the semi-finals. However, North American remains the gold standard on the international stage.
Canadian women have won five of the seven Olympic gold medals, and are the defending champions after a 3-2 win over the United States at the 2022 Games in Beijing. But there’s a new twist to this arc: Team USA is the heavy favorite. The U.S. owned Canada in a four-game rivalry series prior to the Games and has been a powerhouse, defeating Canada 5-0 in round-robin play here in Milan. But the dynamics can change whenever a gold medal is at stake.
“Knowing the pressure of that moment, the energy of the building, it’s going to be different,” said American veteran Kendall Coyne Scofield, who has already played in three Olympic gold medal matches. “But really it’s just about emptying the tank. Whatever you have left. It’s a long tournament, just empty it. Go out there and give your best. That’s all you can do.”
Here’s what it could look like when the teams face off on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET.
How did each team get here?
American women completely dominate Milan. They have outscored their opponents 31-1 by scoring at least five goals in every game. Team USA entered the finals with five consecutive shutouts – including a win over Canada last week.
Coach John Wroblewski has preached the importance of rolling four lines since before the tournament, and he has been able to achieve that so far. Americans have received contributions from everyone. Fifteen different players have scored the goals. Veterans like Alex Carpenter and Coyne Scofield have three goals each. Rising stars Layla Edwards and Caroline Harvey lead the skaters in ice time and have a combined total of 16 points. The most dynamic line is one that includes Olympic novices Hannah Bilka, Taylor Heise and Abby Murphy.
Hayley Scamurra, a 31-year-old veteran who has been on six world championship teams, isn’t afraid to say it: This is the best team she’s ever been on. “Oh yes,” Scamurra said after the U.S.’s 5-0 semifinal win over Sweden. “100 percent.”
Meanwhile, Canada decided to take a much older team to Milan. Coach Troy Ryan often relies on players he is comfortable with. They returned 16 players who helped them win gold in Beijing, but left home some of their emerging talent – which has become a topic of discussion for the first time after Canada looked very slow against the United States. In that game, each of Team USA’s four goal scorers would have been Team Canada’s youngest player.
However, the Canadians were without captain Marie-Philippe Poulin, who missed the game with a right knee injury. Pauline is back and leading her team into battle. Until the semi-final game against Switzerland, the Canadians did not have much trouble against anyone else. Despite outshooting the Swiss 46–8, Canada won by a narrow 2–1 margin. Both goals came from Paulin in the second period. She is apparently recovering from the injury (the broadcast showed Palin being carried from the locker room to the ice to avoid putting additional stress on her knee). There’s a reason they call the 34-year-old Captain Clutch.
The player from each team who has impressed the most so far
Get ready for Caroline Harvey to become a household name. She has already been influenced by Matthew Tkachuk, who said that he reminds her of Bobby Orr. “That was crazy,” said Harvey, who wears No. 4, but said it’s coincidentally the same number as the Hall of Fame defenseman.
Harvey, a senior at Wisconsin, is noticeable all over the ice, covering a ton of ground with his skating. The PWHL has never seen a draft class coming this June. In any other year, Edwards or Murphy might have been the clear No. 1, but so far, Harvey has been the unanimous pick. Another player heading into the draft is Tessa Jenneke, who has five assists in six games in a fourth-line role.
Poulin was most impressive for Canada when her team needed her most in the semi-finals, but that’s nothing new. Her two goals against Switzerland gave her 20 goals in her Olympic career, tying her with countrywoman Hayley Wickenheiser (18). Most in women’s hockey.
Perhaps the most compelling story for Canada is the re-emergence of Daryl Watts. The forward’s talent was never in doubt; She won the Patty Kazmaier Award as college hockey’s best player as a freshman in 2018. But when he was left off Canada’s 2022 roster, he left hockey for almost a year and pursued a career in commercial real estate. Now she’s back in pro hockey and shining for Canada. Watts assisted on both of Paulin’s goals against Switzerland and has eight points in the tournament.
The biggest question mark for each team heading into this game?
For Americans: Have they been tested enough?
So far, they have crushed the competition. When the players were asked this question after dismantling Sweden, Edwards gave a logical response: “Believe it or not, we have been challenged. We have overcome it and succeeded.”
After all, they can only play the competition in front of them. Veteran defenseman Kayla Barnes explained why the US has been able to come out on top in many of these games: “It’s a testament to how much pressure we put on teams. We’re relentless. We do a good job of wearing teams down.”
For Canada, the question is simply: can it keep up with its biggest rival?
Everyone is expecting this game to be much more competitive than the group-stage meeting, in which Canada looked less determined, less connected and slower. Then, when gold is at stake, everyone has the potential to play the game of their lives. All players who scored (Paulin and Sarah Nurse) or assisted (Claire Thompson, Brianna Jenner) for Canada in the 2022 gold-medal game are still on the roster.
As U.S. captain Hilary Knight said of Canada: “This is a battle-tested team.”
America will win if __
It maintains its own identity, which Scamurra describes as “a quiet confidence”. The U.S. has a spark plug in Murphy, who entered these Olympics leading college hockey in both goals and penalty minutes. The win over Sweden was a microcosm of Murphy’s duel. He scored a spectacular goal at the 15:12 mark of the second period, and a few minutes later the Sweden goalkeeper was called for interference for fouling out the back of the net.
Murphy has been one of the most effective players on this roster. Through the Americans’ quarterfinal victory against Italy, Murphy led all American players in drawing nine penalties. The next closest player on his team played only two draws.
Teams are trying to cover up for the United States. According to the players, Knight had talked to them during the Italy match to not lose focus. Play their game, don’t do anything stupid and winning is their gold medal.
Canada will win if __
Goalkeeper Anne-Reneé Desbiens comes in. Palin can only do so much on her own. He will need more help from his peers. But realistically, a team is always in danger of being stopped by the opposing goalkeeper. Desbiens did not get much action against Switzerland, allowing one goal on eight shots.
There’s also no guarantee that she’ll start; Emrance Maschmeyer may also get a call. Both are experienced goaltenders who also play in the PWHL. Maschmeyer is recovering from an injury suffered early in the season, while Desbiens was on the heater before the Olympics. This potentially sets the scale for Desbiens as a starter, and we know he has the potential. But the best goalkeepers so far in this tournament have been Americans. Erin Frankel has had a stellar tournament, posting a .985 save percentage in five games, while Gwyneth Phillips was strong in stopping 20 shots for a shutout in her lone start. The Canadians need similar performances in net.
