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Alden Gonzalez
Multiple Authors
There is no shortage of stats and metrics these days that attempt to predict how baseball teams will fare in an upcoming season. But there is one area lacking in all of it: human will, and how certain players can push themselves to be better than even the best analytical models could have foreseen.
The foundation is laid over the winter, when pitches are learned and swing mechanics are tweaked and bodies are molded. And after asking coaches, managers, executives and scouts for all 30 major league teams to identify the players they’re most excited to see in spring training, the prospect of sizable, year-to-year growth became the overriding theme.
With camps starting this week in Florida and Arizona, we identified one player to watch for every team this spring. The vast majority of them are players who sources told us they believe have what it takes to make a bigger jump than some might expect — and can push their teams beyond what the prediction models tell us.
American League
Athletics: SP Gage Jump
The Athletics’ pitching might be lagging way behind their hitting at the major league level, but the team has built some really intriguing starting-pitching depth in their minor league system. Jump headlines that group, and people within the organization have identified him as the most likely to force their hand and trigger an earlier-than-expected callup this season.
In his first exposure to pro baseball after being drafted No. 73 in 2024, Jump, a 22-year-old left-hander, posted a 3.28 ERA and struck out 28.4% of hitters between High-A and Double-A. His fastball velocity jumped a couple of ticks in the process. And at some point this season, he could help front the Athletics’ very needy rotation.
Baltimore Orioles: SS Gunnar Henderson
Perhaps no team improved more this offseason than the Orioles, who added two impact bats (Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward), two back-end relievers (Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge) and one midrotation starter (Shane Baz) — with perhaps another still to come. But Henderson remains their best player.
After a monster 2024 season that saw him finish fourth in AL MVP voting, Henderson, still just 24 years old, took a step back in 2025 while dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. He was still really good (.274/.349/.438 slash line, 17 homers, 30 steals, 4.8 fWAR). But whether he’s closer to the 2024 version or the 2025 version is a source of intrigue in the organization.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Marcelo Mayer
A team source described it succinctly: “If he’s healthy, it could be the difference between us being good and very good.” And in a jam-packed, hypercompetitive AL East, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and staying home.
Mayer, 23, struggled through a .228/.272/.402 slash line in 136 plate appearances as a rookie last year, then underwent season-ending wrist surgery. But the Red Sox remain bullish on his potential and will count on him to at least start against right-handers while playing either second or third base (depending on where they slot new infield acquisition Caleb Durbin). Rafael Devers is gone. Alex Bregman is, too. Ketel Marte never arrived. It’s Mayer’s turn.
Chicago White Sox: UT Miguel Vargas
One member of the White Sox’s front office singled out Vargas as having “a chance to be a breakout player in 2026,” a sign the organization still believes in the potential of his bat. At this time three years ago, Vargas was a consensus top-100 prospect. The Dodgers then made him their Opening Day second baseman. But Vargas struggled mightily and wasn’t any better during the 2024 season, when the White Sox acquired him at the trade deadline in a three-team, seven-player deal.
At his best, Vargas displays elite plate discipline and gap-to-gap power. There were times last year when that really showed up, mostly in May and August. As he enters his age-26 season, he needs to finally display that consistently.
Cleveland Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter
DeLauter made his major league debut in last year’s postseason, starting in center field in Game 2 of Cleveland’s wild-card series against the Tigers, with the Guardians on the verge of elimination. It was an indication of his potential, and that his lengthy injury history hasn’t necessarily clouded it.
DeLauter, the 43rd-ranked prospect by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, can hit for average and power, with 30-homer potential. He showed that in the minor leagues, slashing .302/.384/.504 with 20 homers, 70 walks and 80 strikeouts in 138 games. But only 81 of those games have come in the past two seasons. Now, the runway is there for DeLauter to be an everyday player. He just needs to stay on the field.
Detroit Tigers: SS Kevin McGonigle
As part of his end-of-season news conference, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said: “I expect the players that posted dominant years in Double-A to factor into our big league team next year.” Nobody fits that description better than McGonigle, who ranks No. 2 on McDaniel’s prospect list.
The Tigers took McGonigle out of high school at No. 37 in 2023 and have seen him handle every level since, including Double-A, where he had an OPS of .919 at age 20. In McGonigle, Max Clark, Bryce Rainer and Josue Briceño, the Tigers have a really intriguing crop of position-player prospects. Three of them — all but Rainer, who’s still only 20 years old — will be in camp. And McGonigle has the best shot among them to lock down a major league job this season.
Houston Astros: 3B Carlos Correa
No player has ever won a Gold Glove at both shortstop and third base. Correa has told some members of the Astros he’s motivated to become the first. He has also done some swing work over the winter, hoping to rebound from a 2025 season in which he finished with an OPS+ of just 103. Correa left Houston as one of the game’s best players in 2021, a year that saw him finish fifth in MVP voting. His next 3½ years with the Twins brought pretty dramatic highs and lows.
But Correa was highly productive after rejoining the Astros last summer, posting a .785 OPS over the last two months. He is still only 31 years old. A full offseason to work on third base, while back with a franchise and in a city where he is comfortable, has the Astros believing in a return to form.
Kansas City Royals: RF Jac Caglianone
Caglianone struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, slashing .157/.237/.295 in 232 plate appearances. It was also a lot to ask of him. The 2025 season represented Caglianone’s first full season of pro ball, which saw him advance through Double-A and Triple-A, land in the majors and sit out extended time because of a hamstring strain, all while learning right field.
Now that he has had a chance to breathe, the Royals are expecting big things from their 23-year-old former first-round pick. They need it. The Royals are trying to win the AL Central and will have no chance of doing so if they repeat a year that saw them score the fifth-fewest runs in the majors. Their offseason moves were subtle, and so their biggest chance of improving offensively will come down to whether Caglianone can translate his elite power to the highest level.
Los Angeles Angels: SP Tyler Bremner
The Angels surprised a lot of people by selecting Bremner with the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, passing on LSU’s Kade Anderson, who went third to the Mariners. Clearly the Angels, who have struggled mightily to develop starting pitching for more than a decade, think highly of Bremner’s upside.
He possesses an elite changeup, a mid- to high-90s fastball and plus control, making him the type of high-floor prospect the organization often targets. If he puts that on display in the minor leagues this season — while ideally refining a breaking ball — don’t be surprised if he joins the major league rotation late in the year. The Angels love early promotions.
Minnesota Twins: RF Matt Wallner
The Twins’ recent subtraction has left few established, foundational pieces, but the organization maintains hope that Wallner can still be one. The 28-year-old former first-round pick has elite bat speed and elite power potential, and he maintained a walk rate in the 84th percentile last year. But he still swings and misses way too often. Among 401 qualified hitters from 2023 to 2025, Wallner had the 16th-highest strikeout percentage. He still managed an .838 OPS, 101 points above the league average.
He has a chance to be a building block of whatever this next Twins iteration becomes, along with Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. But he needs to put it together now.
New York Yankees: OF Spencer Jones
The return of Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham — not to mention the presence of Jasson Dominguez — means the Yankees don’t have an immediate opening for Jones, but team officials are fascinated to see how close the 6-foot-7 outfielder is to having an impact at the major league level. That should happen at some point this season.
Jones has struck out a whopping 534 times in 357 minor league games over the past three years, but he moves well, hits the ball incredibly hard and possesses a plus arm. One Yankees source described him as having “a wide variance to his game,” which is a polite way of saying he needs to cut down his strikeouts so that his power can truly emerge. This is a crucial year for him.
Seattle Mariners: OF Jonny Farmelo
Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena will spend most of spring training playing in the World Baseball Classic, which means the Mariners will get a long look at Farmelo, a 21-year-old outfielder drafted out of high school at No. 29 in 2023. They’re excited to see him. Former center fielder and current special assignment coach Mike Cameron calls him “Ferrari” because of his speed and strength. His tools, a team source said, “are huge,” though he has yet to put them on display for a prolonged stretch.
Farmelo tore an ACL in 2024 and spent most of 2025 sidelined by a rib injury. But he’s healthy now and expected to make big strides through their system in 2026.
Tampa Bay Rays: OF Jacob Melton
The Rays acquired Melton from Houston as part of the three-team deal that saw them part ways with Brandon Lowe, who ended up in Pittsburgh. Now, despite their crowded outfield mix, they’ll give him a legitimate chance to be their everyday center fielder. They know Melton can run, play defense and hit for power — the question is whether he’ll make enough contact.
“There will probably be some growing pains with the bat,” a team source said, “and he’ll hit some 440-foot bombs along the way.” If he can just cut down on strikeouts a bit, the rest of the tools should keep him as a major league regular.
Texas Rangers: OF Wyatt Langford
Langford, who just turned 24 in November, has already played 268 major league games, in which he has stolen 41 bases, hit 38 home runs, posted a .758 OPS and compiled 7.2 fWAR. Heading into 2026, some within the Rangers believe he not only has a chance to be a first-time All-Star but potentially an MVP candidate.
Since claiming the franchise’s first World Series title in 2023, the Rangers have been hindered by a stunning level of offensive regression — so much so that the likes of Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim have since been replaced. But Langford’s arrow is clearly pointing up.
Toronto Blue Jays: 3B Kazuma Okamoto
Heading into the offseason, many saw Okamoto — like fellow free agent and countryman Munetaka Murakami — as an eventual first baseman. But that obviously won’t be the case in Toronto. After signing a four-year, $60 million deal, Okamoto will come in as the Blue Jays’ everyday third baseman, looking to prove he can stay at the hot corner.
What about his bat? Okamoto put up a .355 on-base percentage in his 11 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball and also reached the 30-homer threshold six of the past eight years. How much of that on-base and slugging ability translates against the higher velocities in the majors, though, is an open question. And for a Blue Jays team that did not make another meaningful offensive addition this winter, it’s a crucial one.
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks: UT Jordan Lawlar
Lawlar cracked this list last year, then went on to play in only 28 major league games while producing a .545 OPS. But he very much remains a player to watch. Lawlar has struggled to produce and stay healthy but is still only 23 years old and is once again trying out a new position. Lawlar, mostly a shortstop since being drafted sixth overall out of high school in 2021, spent the offseason learning center field in winter ball.
With Ketel Marte staying put, Geraldo Perdomo locked up long term and Nolan Arenado added to the mix, the outfield is now his only path to real playing time. But if he can prove himself capable, he would solve the club’s massive need for a capable right-handed-hitting outfielder. Lawler will get his chance, now more than ever.
Atlanta Braves: SP Spencer Strider
Strider didn’t quite look like himself in his return from elbow surgery last season. His strikeout rate was 24.3%, compared to 36.8% when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2023. His fastball was down a couple of ticks and often lacked late life. His ERA stood at 4.45. But Strider was highly effective in the stretch run, maintaining a 2.50 ERA over his last six starts. And one would expect the quality of his stuff to return now that he’s another year removed from surgery.
The Braves are currently deep in pitching prospects, with three players making up Kiley McDaniels’ top 100. But Strider is still the one who can put them over the top in a highly competitive division.
A member of the Cubs’ front office called Bregman “a transformative presence” whose impact “is impossibly widespread.” One offseason after losing out on him in free agency, the Cubs landed Bregman with a five-year, $175 million deal. Bregman put up 3.5 fWAR despite playing in only 114 games last season and ranked 19th among position players in that metric from 2022 to 2025.
His presence greatly lengthens their lineup, pushing Matt Shaw into a utility role in which he should thrive, but it’s his influence on their culture that has Cubs officials so excited — and many of those with the Red Sox so distraught about losing him. As one Cubs source put it: “The talent doesn’t even scratch the surface of what he brings.”
Cincinnati Reds: 1B Sal Stewart
Terry Francona played in the big leagues for 10 years and is entering his 25th season as a manager. Dating to spring training last year, he has continually called Stewart one of the most advanced young hitters he has ever seen. Stewart proved that during the stretch run of the Reds’ 2025 season, when he was called up in September, popped five home runs and earned his way onto their postseason roster.
Now, at 22 years old, he’ll seemingly start the season as the everyday first baseman and look to jolt a Reds offense that underperformed last year. He is among the favorites for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, as he should be.
Colorado Rockies: SP Chase Dollander
Dollander is the pick here for the second straight year, which indicates two important things: 1. When trying to identify young talent one can dream on in this organization, the pickings are slim. 2. Dollander has been highly thought of by two different front office groups in Colorado.
As a rookie last year, Dollander made 21 starts in a rotation that put up the highest starters’ ERA in baseball history. He struggled at mile-high altitude, as most tend to, but he was solid on the road, putting up a 3.46 ERA in 52 innings. A new baseball operations department led by Paul DePodesta believes he can take a big step forward this season. The Rockies need him to.
Los Angeles Dodgers: SP River Ryan
Dodgers camp is a treasure trove of storylines, from the arrivals of Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz to Shohei Ohtani returning to full-time two-way duties to Roki Sasaki looking to establish himself as a starting pitcher. Ryan easily gets lost in that shuffle. But Dodgers officials are excited to see how he looks now that he has completed a successful rehab from Tommy John surgery and added a significant amount of muscle in the process.
The last time we saw Ryan, he posted a 1.33 ERA in his first four major league starts as a 25-year-old near the stretch run of the 2024 season. Now, he’ll compete with Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan for a rotation spot. “It’s been long enough since he last pitched in a game that I think we can all forget how much of a freak this guy is,” a team source said.
In two full seasons in the big leagues, López has been 12 percentage points below average offensively based on OPS+. But his defense and his baserunning have prompted him to compile 4.8 fWAR nonetheless. The Marlins say they believe there is more upside with the bat as López enters his age-27 season, some of which he started to display while amassing 18 homers last year.
The Marlins have compiled a plethora of higher-ceiling prospects under Peter Bendix, who has spent the past two offseasons extracting as much young talent as possible from the team’s more established players. But it’s López, an unheralded utility infielder originally plucked off waivers, who has a chance to really stick.
Milwaukee Brewers: UT Jett Williams
Williams was the headliner in the trade that sent ace Freddy Peralta to the Mets last month and, well let’s just be real here: Has there ever been a more quintessential Brewers player? Williams packs elite speed, power potential and excellent swing decisions into a 5-foot-7, 175-pound frame, and he can play anywhere in the middle of the field. The Brewers love guys like him.
Williams, picked out of high school at No. 14 in 2022, spent 130 games in the Mets’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season, slashing .261/.363/.465 with 17 homers and 34 steals. Brewers officials don’t know where he’ll play this season, but they’ll be keeping a close eye on him in camp.
New York Mets: OF Carson Benge
Prominent members of the Mets are really high on Benge, which is probably unsurprising for a consensus top-20 prospect. But they view him as the complete package — someone who has already polished his defense and his baserunning enough to combine with his plus arm and promising offensive profile, giving him a chance to be a true five-tool player in the major leagues.
Benge became David Stearns’ first draft pick as head of baseball operations, selected No. 19 in 2024. In his first full season of pro ball, he breezed through High-A (.897 OPS) and Double-A (.978) before hitting a bit of a road block in Triple-A (.583). Now, he’ll enter camp with a legitimate chance to lock down the starting job in right field.
Philadelphia Phillies: RF Adolis García
This Phillies era has resulted in four consecutive postseason appearances and zero championships. The last two autumns ended in the NL Division Series. And in those years, their aging offense has produced only a slash line of .199/.297/.331 in October. A reset of sorts was warranted this offseason. But for the most part, that didn’t happen. The Phillies brought back Kyle Schwarber and, after missing out on Bo Bichette, re-signed veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto. The only new addition was García, who will replace Nick Castellanos in right field.
The Phillies know they’ll get better defense from García. The question is whether they’ll get much better offense. Three years ago, García was a dynamo for a Rangers team that won the World Series. Since then, he has been a below-league-average hitter, producing a .675 OPS. The Phillies hope a new setting — specifically one that is a lot more favorable to hitters — will help García get back on track in his age-33 season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: CF Oneil Cruz
Cruz’s second season removed from a fractured fibula was nowhere near as productive as the Pirates might have anticipated. From 2024 to 2025, his OPS dropped from .773 to .676 and his expected batting average dropped from .259 to .218. But he still hits the ball incredibly hard, swings the bat incredibly fast, displays game-changing speed and arm strength to boot, and he did draw more walks last season. He’s also only 26 years old, coming off his first full season in center field.
Cruz had a productive offseason, and the Pirates are hoping there’s still a superstar in there somewhere.
San Diego Padres: SP Joe Musgrove
Musgrove is widely considered the heart and soul of the Padres’ pitching staff, and San Diego needs him to be something more this year: a true, legitimate ace. It might be a lot to ask for a 33-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. But Musgrove has proved capable before, never more so than when he made 61 starts and posted a 3.06 ERA from 2021 to 2022.
Yu Darvish won’t pitch in 2026 (and perhaps not beyond that, either), Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon will remain in the bullpen, and aside from keeping Nick Pivetta (for now, at least) and bringing back Michael King, the Padres haven’t done anything else to address a very needy rotation.
San Francisco Giants: UT Parks Harber
You won’t see this name pop up on many prospect lists, but some within the Giants really pushed to acquire Harber from the Yankees in last summer’s Camilo Doval trade, then watched him slash .333/.454/.644 in High-A for what remained of that season.
Harber, originally an undrafted free agent out of the University of North Carolina, played at 23 years old, so he was mature for the level. But a lot of people in the Giants’ player-development staff are excited about his makeup and potential, and this spring will mark the first time their most important decision-makers will see him in person. Harber, now 24, is primarily a corner infielder but also has some experience in the outfield.
St. Louis Cardinals: CF Victor Scott II
Scott was a fifth-round pick out of West Virginia in 2022. Within 20 months, he was in the big leagues. And though some prospects can rise that quickly, others need more seasoning — which some within the Cardinals believe describes Scott. They think that, as he enters his age-25 season, there’s still a lot more upside with the bat.
On defense and baserunning alone, Scott is an extremely valuable asset. But he has slashed just .206/.283/.293 in 618 major league plate appearances. Developing into a league-average hitter could make Scott a cornerstone player at a time when the Cardinals are searching for some. They’d love for it to happen now.
Washington Nationals: C Harry Ford
Ford was drafted out of high school at No. 12 by the Mariners in 2021, and then he got stuck. He debuted in 2025 and wound up playing in only eight games, riding the bench behind Cal Raleigh, the sport’s best catcher. Ford then represented the biggest move from the Nationals’ new, exceedingly young front office, coming over in the December trade that sent left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer to Seattle.
Ford is a 23-year-old with 20-homer potential who has steadily improved defensively and is also a plus runner. In D.C., he’s going to get a legitimate shot to compete for an everyday role with Keibert Ruiz.
