World No. 1 to feature in Australian Open women’s final Arina Sabalenka against number 5 elena rybakina On Saturday. Sabalenka has won two titles in Melbourne – but it was Rybakina who most recently defeated Sabalenka when the two played in the WTA Finals at the end of the year.
Who will win? Our expert breaks it down.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Rybakina?
D’Arcy Main: For Sabalenka, who is making her fourth consecutive final in Melbourne, it’s going to come down to just one thing: nerves.
His play has been incredible throughout the fortnight and season so far, and he carries an 11-match winning streak into the finals. Not only this, Sabalenka has not lost a single set yet in 2026. Obviously, she has a shot at winning her fifth major title and third at the Australian Open, but she has struggled with emotions in major finals before (see: last year’s Australian Open and French Open) and sometimes it feels like she’s weighed down by the weight of the moment. She turned things around when competing for the trophy at the US Open last season and she will need to find the same mental strength and clarity on Saturday to pull out a victory.
Jake Michaels: Is it too simple to say that she has to continue what she has been doing this fortnight? Perhaps. But Sabalenka has not dropped a set in six matches and is playing her usual brutal, ultra-aggressive style of tennis, with every opponent having no answers. There has been much talk about her temperament and composure in pressure moments, but don’t forget, just a few days ago she became the first player in the Open era to win 20 consecutive tiebreaks. That’s an incomprehensible number and it speaks volumes for how she has been able to change the narrative around the mental side of her game.
Jarryd Barka: Sabalenka’s blueprint isn’t overly complex, the test is executing it under pressure and expectation – something she failed to do last year. She is the best player in the world and a two-time champion in Melbourne, with seven of her major titles coming on hard courts. He’s won 20 of his last 21 games here for a reason, and he needs to remember that, adapt and lean into it. Tactically, attacking Rybakina’s second serve and refusing to let her settle into comfortable holds and short rallies is also going to be important. If Sabalenka can do this, apply early pressure and draw her opponent into exchanges where her powerful shotmaking can dominate, this will allow her to be aggressive and waste time. Most of all, he has to be himself and stamp his authority early.
What can Rybakina do to defeat Sabalenka?
I have: No woman has won more matches than Rybakina since Wimbledon, and it’s impressive to see her rediscover her form and confidence after some challenges on and off the court. Much of her success can be attributed to her serve and she will need to use that strength as much as possible against Sabalenka. It has been shaky at times in this tournament – especially against inga swiatek in the quarter and jessica pegula in the semi-finals – but she cannot afford such a miss against Sabalenka, who can otherwise match her powerful hitting and aggressive playing style. Rybakina’s first serve could be crucial, and she will need a high percentage in that category to win.
Their last meeting in the finals of the year-end Tour Championships in November may provide something of a blueprint, as Rybakina had 13 aces and won 72.3% of her first serves to win the title. He will need a similar performance on Saturday to clinch his second major title.
Michaels: Rybakina’s success in this tournament, and any other success for that matter, depends on her service. It’s one of the biggest forces in the women’s game today, and one that has cost her a lot of cheap points throughout her career. Rybakina has hit a tournament-best 41 aces in the lead up to the final, almost twice as many as Sabalenka. And it’s not due to playing more tennis, Rybakina is also heading into Saturday’s showpiece match without losing a single set. She also won 74% of the points when her first serve came into play.
We saw the blueprint for how to beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final 12 months ago. big-hitting madison keys Matched the power and aggression coming from the other side of the net and repeatedly frustrated the world No. 1.
Rybakina has all the equipment to repeat the dose.
Barça: If anyone has the tools to beat Sabalenka right now, it’s Rybakina. She matches him in terms of power, hits her groundstrokes with equal precision and has yet to drop a set in this tournament. However, it has not come without volatile moments, including a tense second set tiebreak against Pegula after holding first match point. Rybakina’s victory will come from her service. She has been the best server in the draw, hitting more aces than anyone, and will need to knock down a high percentage of first serves to earn free points and prevent Sabalenka from regaining momentum on returns. From there, it’s all about variety. Mix it up, change the pace, move Sabalenka in different directions and disrupt her timing, as well as choose the right time to strike. If Rybakina can control the pace, which she is capable of doing, she may be difficult to stop.
Who will win?
I have: If their clash in the Australian Open final in 2023 is any indication, this rematch could be epic. And, as we’ve seen in all of their previous meetings, this could really go either way. But while Sabalenka has the lead in the overall series, Rybakina actually leads 6–5 on hard courts and has won four of the last five on the surface. Perhaps most impressively, during that last meeting at the 2025 WTA Finals, Rybakina preferred to defeat the tiebreak queen – Sabalenka – in a tiebreak to claim the title.
There’s no doubt Sabalenka wants to reclaim her crown in Melbourne and has been playing like a player on a mission throughout the Australian summer, but there’s something about Rybakina’s quiet resolve and recent resurgence that I can’t easily challenge. Rybakina in three close sets.
Michaels: Sabalenka wasn’t my boldest prediction before the tournament started, so it would be foolish to jump ship now. Having said that, this final looks like a real 50-50 and you can make a strong case for both women to lift the trophy.
You feel that experience may be the deciding factor. This is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open final and seventh consecutive final at a hard-court major. Meanwhile, Rybakina has not played a Slam final since losing to Sabalenka in the decider at Melbourne Park in 2023. Since then, and prior to this tournament, his best return at a hard-court major was a fourth-round finish. Sabalenka in three tight, entertaining sets.
Barça: Sabalenka deserves favoritism, but it should not be without hesitation. He leads 8-6 in head-to-heads, owns Melbourne like no other and entered the tournament as my pick to lift the trophy. But Rybakina was always a threat, and that seems even more true now. Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches dating back to the end of last season and has won nine in a row over top-10 opponents. Backing up straight-set wins over Swiatek and Pegula is a significant statement, and she also has the edge after recently beating Sabalenka in a WTA Finals title match. But there’s something about Melbourne and how much it means to Sabalenka. History and legacy are at stake, not to mention redemption after a defeat which perhaps it should have won in 2025. It’s power versus power, and it has all the makings of a three-set epic, but I’ll stick with world No. 1 Sabalenka.
