Why each Australian Open men’s semifinalist can win the title

Melbourne, Australia — carlos alcaraz. Janic Sinner. alexander zverev. novak djokovic. For the first time since 2013, the top four men’s players have reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open.

History is guaranteed to be made at Melbourne Park this weekend. Alcaraz is trying to become the youngest person to complete a career slam. Sinner is looking for a rare three-peat Down Under. Zverev is seeking his first major title. And Djokovic is still in search of a record-extending 25th Grand Slam crown.

Here’s how each semifinalist can advance and lift the trophy:

Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1 seed)

Alcaraz has been making waves in tennis for the past 18 months, winning Grand Slams and recapturing the coveted No. 1 rank. His dominant form has been on full display over the last 11 days at Melbourne Park.

The Spaniard barely had to shift out of second gear as he (remarkably) reached the Australian Open semi-finals for the first time in his still very young career. He was 15 out of 15 in the set and honestly it didn’t really feel like he could lose a single one. In the few pressure situations he has faced, Alcaraz has won a tournament-high 76% of his points while serving at 30-30 or 40-40.

But perhaps the most ominous sign for his rivals is that Alcaraz has addressed what was really the only weakness in his game: the serve. Alcaraz took a page out of Djokovic’s playbook, modeling the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s serve and hitting power perfectly.

“He doesn’t hit the fastest serve, but [it] Is very accurate. Like, you can’t read it. It’s really hard to read,” Alcaraz said at the start of the tournament when asked why Djokovic’s serve was so dangerous. ”It’s really close to the lines, and his ball, when it touches the ground, is like a sleeper. Sometimes you have to focus on precision more than speed.”

At this year’s Australian Open, Alcaraz is hitting 66% of his first serves, two percentage points higher than his performance at the tournament 12 months ago. He has also increased his second serve win rate from 56% last year to 60% this year. They may not seem like seismic moves, but when you’re already that close to unbeatable, it makes the task that much more difficult for Sinner, Zverev and Djokovic.

Winning the Australian Open title on Sunday evening would make Alcaraz the youngest person in history to complete the coveted Career Slam – all four major titles. Don’t underestimate how hungry he is to rewrite the record books.

Jannik Sinner (No. 2 seed)

At this point, it seems almost inevitable that Papi, at the very least, will play in Sunday’s final. Not because he faces 38-year-old Djokovic in the semi-finals, but because he has recently made a habit of playing in Grand Slam showpiece matches.

Sinner has been to the last five Grand Slam finals, winning three of them. He has played in the last four hard-court major finals, winning three of them, including the last two Australian Opens. He has won 32 of his last 33 matches at the Slam with hard courts and has not tasted defeat at Melbourne Park since 2023, when he lost to the eventual finalist in a five-set epic Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Apart from a brief scare in the third round against the unseeded American Eliot SpizzirriSinner has been carefree on his way back to the Final Four. He was eliminated in the quarterfinals as the eighth seed. ben shelton It was a sight to behold, sending an ominous signal to the three others left in the draw that an extraordinary performance would be required to dethrone him.

Sinner is serving efficiently, hitting the ball cleanly, minimizing errors and forcing his opponents to play outside their comfort zone.

“Every day and every match day, we never take an opponent lightly,” Sinner said after their quarterfinal win over Shelton. “I’m someone who does a lot of things in the present moment. I’m happy to be here, happy to play a semi-final here in Australia again. It’s a very special place for me.”

Sinner will start as a favorite in the semi-finals against Djokovic, an opponent he has defeated five times in the past. In the last three matches, he has not dropped a single set against himself. Then it will be a date with Alcaraz or Zverev, two men he defeated en route to claiming the ATP Finals in November.

Alexander Zverev (No. 3 seed)

It appears he is banging on the door of a first Grand Slam title in forever, but is this the year – and tournament – ​​where Zverev At the end breaks through?

The world No. 3 is familiar with competing in the second weekend of a major tournament and he certainly won’t feel out of his depth when he steps onto Rod Laver Arena on Friday for his 10th career Grand Slam semi-final appearance. On three occasions, he has gone on to play in finals, including at Melbourne Park last year.

Zverev has continued his golden form this fortnight, progressing with each match and looking every bit like a player who could soon be champion. He is playing disciplined tennis and refusing to make unforced mistakes, a hallmark of his quarterfinal win against the rising American learner tn.

As always, much of Zverev’s potential success depends on his excellent serving. During his five matches at the tournament, Zverev served 80 aces, committed only six double faults, won 92% of his service games and won 77% of the points when his first serve went into play.

“I feel healthy and pain-free, which I haven’t felt for a long time,” Zverev said after his quarterfinal win over Tien. “I feel like I’m playing well. Of course, I’m still chasing that desired Slam. I still want to achieve that, but I also want to enjoy my tennis.”

There is good news and bad news for Zverev before the semi-finals. The bad thing is that he will have to play top-ranked Alcaraz. The good thing is that he has a better record than any player on the tour. The pair are 6-6 in their last 12 meetings and 1-1 in the last 18 months. This should give him confidence that he can recover from the setback and reach his second consecutive Australian Open final.

Novak Djokovic (No. 4 seed)

No one in tennis history knows how to win Grand Slam titles better than Djokovic. And no one in tennis history has been more successful at the Australian Open.

The 10-time champions of the event have been defeated only six times at Melbourne Park in the last 16 years and have a staggering 20–2 record in semi-finals and finals at the tournament. And while he hasn’t lifted a Grand Slam trophy since 2023, even at the age of 38 he remains a genuine contender every time he enters the draw. When he is just two matches away from the title, no one should ignore him.

But Djokovic has also been helped by some luck this fortnight. He avoided facing a top-70 ranked opponent in the first three rounds, then benefited from a Czech walkover in the fourth round. jacob mensik Withdrew from his match citing stomach injury. On Wednesday, Djokovic seemed to be out and trailing the Italian. Lorenzo Musetti To love from two sets. But the fifth seed retired with injury, allowing Djokovic to reach the Australian Open last four for the 13th time in his career.

If she were to win her 25th major title, it would perhaps be a major stroke of luck, allowing her to break the tie she currently holds with Margaret Court for most singles Grand Slam titles.

“I know that when I’m healthy, when I’m able to put all the pieces of the puzzle together on any given day, I feel like I can beat anybody,” Djokovic said before the tournament began. “My priority is really to take care of my body, maintain pace and not expend unnecessary energy. [Last year] To be able to compete with these guys in the latter stages of a Grand Slam, I was missing a little bit of juice in my legs.”

Djokovic will be the freshest of all four semi-finalists, having spent just nine hours and seven minutes on court. Alcaraz, Sinner and Zverev have spent at least 11 hours on the court to reach this stage of the tournament.

In some strange way, there is very little pressure on him. Sinner is a favorite to win his semi-final and is expected to complete the task with relative ease. But there is no such thing as an easy win over Djokovic in Australia. Be careful of the person who underestimates you.