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bill connelly
Illinois State came within 37 seconds of the national title in 2014 but could not keep North Dakota State out of the final zone. After being defeated by NDSU in the 2021 title game, Montana State bounced back last season and did everything it could to erase the early loss against the powerful Bison. The Bobcats fell behind by three points.
Both ISU and MSU’s ambitions have been stymied by the Goliaths of the FCS, but thanks to an all-time upset, one will win the 2025 national title. Brock Spack’s ISU Redbirds took out a particularly strong NDSU team in the Round of 16, erasing a 14-point deficit and scoring a well-timed 2-point conversion. And with the bracket broken down, the Redbirds kept moving forward: They pulled off two more road upsets – they are the first team to win four road games in a single playoff run – and rode defense to a sharp improvement to one spot in their first title game since the 2014 heartbreaker.
Meanwhile, Montana State is in its third title game in five seasons. With a mix of new blood and veterans from last year’s very close team, the Bobcats have won 13 in a row, and they defeated rival Montana in the semi-finals. They have waited more than 40 years for their 1984 national title, and they came very close to the mountain peak last season. Now all they have to do is defeat the team of destiny.
Monday Night in Nashville (7:30 ET, ESPN), two teams eager to take advantage of the best title opportunity they have and will compete. Here’s everything you need to know about a fascinating FCS finale.
how did they get here
number 2 Montana State Bobcats
record: 13-2
SP+ Ranking: Third overall, fourth on offense, ninth on defense
First-team all-conference selection: RG titan fleshman (6-foot-4, 300 pounds, Jr.), NT Paul Brough (6-3, 300, Sr.), Edge Kenneth Eden IV (6-1, 250, Sr.), SS Caden Dowler (6-0, 205, Sr., Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year)
Major regular-season results: Lost to No. 2 South Dakota State 30–24. No. 10 Northern Arizona 34–10, def. No. 9 UC Davis 38–17, def. No. 2 Montana 31-28
Playoff run: Defeated. Yale 21–13, defeated. No. 7 Stephen F. Austin 44-28, defeated. No. 3 Montana 48-23
Including the blasting by Oregon in Week 1, Montana State scored an average of 23.8 points over the first four games of the season. As always, the run game was strong from the start – the Bobcats have gained at least 189 yards on the ground against every FCS opponent and have gained 225 yards 10 times – but the new quarterback Justin LamsonA Stanford transfer, he averaged only 4.3 yards per pass attempt (including sack) against Oregon and South Dakota State, and he had only three touchdown passes in the first four games.
However, over his last 11 games, Lamson has thrown for 2,157 yards (13.4 per completion) with a 21-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Complement a dynamite run game with an error-free and sometimes explosive passing game, and you will be very difficult to stop. MSU has averaged 43.3 points per game in these 11 contests and has allowed just 13.9 points per game in its last 13 games. The Bobcats found fifth gear, and stayed there, really only having to sweat against Montana in the regular season finale and Yale in their first playoff game.
record: 12-4
SP+ Ranking: 10th overall, 11th on offense, 28th on defense
First-team all-conference selection: wr Daniel Sobkowicz (6-3, 205, Sr.), LT Jake Pope (6-7, 300, Sr.), LB ty niecamp (6-3, 240, Jr., Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year), CB Shadwell Nkuba II (6-1, 190, Sr.)
Major regular-season results: Lost to No. 1 North Dakota State 33–16, lost to No. 25 Youngstown State 40–35. No. 21 South Dakota 21–13, def. No. 15 South Dakota State 35-21, lost to No. 24 Southern Illinois 37-7
Playoff run: Defeated. No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana 21–3, def. No. 1 North Dakota State 29–28, defeated. No. 8 UC Davis 42–31, def. No. 12 Villanova 30-14
Brock Spack has brought incredible credibility to ISU; In 17 seasons in Normal, his Redbirds have won at least six games 14 times and at least 10 five times. ISU had won three FCS playoff games in its history before his arrival in 2009 – and has won 12 since. But the 2014 title game run was beginning to seem far in the rearview mirror. The Redbirds had not advanced beyond the quarterfinals since then, and they reached the playoffs only once in 2020.
Illinois State lost four in a row at the end of the regular season, all but clinched a playoff berth, and the offense provided plenty of great moments. But even with star linebacker Ty Niekamp, the defense never really looked effective, and a crushing 37–7 loss to Southern Illinois in the regular season finale gave no indication of what was to come. Heading into the playoffs the Redbirds ranked just 21st in SP+, and have been projected as underdogs in every game they have played.
However, he has redefined “peaking late”. They’ve averaged 7.2 points per game on offense and 14.1 points on defense over SP+ projections, and after four unblemished road wins, here they are.
Can ISU continue its magical formula?
Based on pregame SP+ projections, ISU had a 0.3% chance of winning its four playoff games – and that doesn’t even begin to diminish the degree of difficulty involved in defeating North Dakota State when throwing. five interceptionsBut nearly everyone in the Redbirds’ lineup has come up when needed, quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse Actually threw five picks in Fargo, but he’s also thrown eight touchdown passes over the last three games. Seven of those went to Daniel Sobkowicz, who had 29 catches for 403 yards in four playoff games, scoring twice against NDSU and rushing for 150 yards against UC Davis. (Sobkowicz also threw a TD pass rittenhouse Lead back against Southeastern Louisiana. Victor DawsonMeanwhile, he has 517 rushing yards (5.3 per carry) in the playoffs after producing 734 (4.8) in 12 regular season games.
The defense ranked 56th in SP+ when the playoffs began, but has turned around quite remarkably. Southeastern Louisiana averaged 33.3 points per game in the regular season, but finished with more interceptions (four) than points scored against the Redbirds. NDSU gained 78 yards on its first snap, which was a long catch-and-run. bryce lanceBut only gained 101 additional yards. UC Davis, one of the best offenses in the country, scored 10 points in the first four minutes and 14 points in the final three, but scored only once in seven drives in between as ISU took control with a 35–7 run. Villanova converted three early trips into ISU territory into just six points and trailed by 24 when it finally took the lead again late.
Niekamp has been as reliable as ever in the playoffs, but several others at tackle have contributed when needed garrett stephen And jake anderson (6.5 TFL and five sacks) to corners Shadwell Nkuba II And cam wilson (One INT, seven pass breakups, one TFL, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery) for a safety. CJ Richard Jr.(Two pics, one breakup and one mess recovery), This has been a 2007 or 2011 New York Giants type of run, with an occasionally error-prone QB coming up big in key moments and an increasingly confident and disruptive defense for increasing portions of the time,
If you can hold NDSU to under 200 yards, you can do it with almost anyone, but obviously it will be a huge challenge to stop a Montana State offense that has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 13 games. One can’t help but understand that the odds of success are high here, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that Redbirds don’t care much about the odds.
So MSU will close the deal this time…right?
The loss in last year’s title game felt like a missed opportunity for Montana State. NDSU wasn’t at its best in 2024, and Brent Wigen’s Bobcats had an undefeated and especially stellar team led by All-Americans (and soon-to-be-departing) quarterback Tommy Mellott – a Walter Payton Award winner and sixth-round NFL draft pick – plus fullback/tight end Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Connor Moore, and defensive end Brody Grebe. They were going to be vulnerable to erosion, and NDSU really wasn’t. It was time for him to move on, but a poor start in the title match prevented that from happening.
Regardless of the losses to Oregon and South Dakota State, the 0-2 start in 2025, combined with NDSU’s immediate talent, reinforces the idea that MSU’s time has passed. But you never know what will happen if you keep trying to improve. Justin Lamson found his rhythm after a slow start and when it was time for the Bobcats to shift into a new gear, he did.
Going back to the end of the regular season, they have played five straight games against playoff teams – including four against quarterfinalists and top-eight seeds (Montana twice, Stephen F. Austin and UC Davis) – and have won those five games by an average of two touchdowns. Lamson has completed 72% of his passes and thrown for 886 yards, with 334 non-sack rushing yards and 12 combined TDs in these five games, and running back adam jones (double threat) and julius davis (Workhorse) has combined for 856 rushing yards, 120 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. slot receiver Taco Dowler He didn’t always have much to do, but in the semifinals he caught a game-turning 87-yard touchdown pass to wideout dan steel And chris long Have also arrived.
Against a strong group of offenses in this five-game run – among others, Montana is second in offensive SP+, and UC Davis is eighth – MSU’s defense has allowed 21.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play (not dominant, but well below these opponents’ season averages) and has attacked mistakes beautifully: The Bobcats have made 18 sacks and forced 11 turnovers. Has done, scoring on three of them. Safety Caden Dowler has been involved in pick-sixes in each of the last two regular season games, and linebacker bryce grebeThe 40-yard pick-six ended in a semifinal blowout.
Caden Dowler might be the biggest story in the game: He’s the best safety in the FCS – and probably the best player on any of these rosters – and he’s made 6 picks with 4 pass breakups, 6.5 TFLs and 2 forced fumbles this season. But he left the semifinals with an injured hand, and although Wigan expressed optimism about his availability, it is a race against time, and even if he plays he may not be 100 percent.
title game launch
draftkings launch, Montana State 33.5, Illinois State 23.0 (MSU -10.5, over/under 56.5 points)
SP+ launch: Montana State 33.2, Illinois State 24.8
According to SP+, Montana State has about a 70% chance of winning it, which means we can think of this as three approximately equally likely outcomes: a tight ISU win, a reasonably tight MSU win, and a comfortable MSU win. If ISU can control the ball with Dawson, and if Rittenhouse avoids picks, the Redbirds may score enough to give themselves a chance. But the Redbirds don’t have much margin for error, as they will have to continue to overachieve defensively against a surging MSU attack.
It’s hard to bet against Spack’s Redbirds, considering how many obstacles they have faced to get to this point. But it’s also easy to see this as a Montana State moment. The Bobcats keep getting closer, and thanks to ISU, the typical final boss isn’t waiting in the finals. If you squint closely, both of these teams have a “team of destiny” vibe. However, only one will lift the trophy.
