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David Purdum
Prediction market Kalshi informed a federal regulator on Wednesday that it is the self-certified market for whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal, and while the company says it has no immediate plans to begin offering trading on the portal, the decision nonetheless drew sharp criticism from the NCAA.
In a filing submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi wrote that contracts on the transfer portal will initially be listed on December 17, 2025, and that it intends to list such markets daily. Transfer portal markets were not visible on the site as of 8 pm ET on Wednesday.
“We assure the markets at all times that we will not be listed,” a Kalshi company spokesperson told ESPN.
According to Kalshi’s filing, the markets will include NCAA Division I football and basketball players and will be settled when a player publicly announces his intention to enter the transfer portal or officially enters the transfer portal. According to the filing, statements by players on social media or announcements by agents or athletic departments are legitimate announcements.
It is the latest provocative move by Kalshi, which has emerged as a leading prediction market exchange while also fighting multiple legal battles with state gambling regulators and pushback from some sports leagues.
“The NCAA vigorously opposes college sports prediction markets,” NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement to ESPN. “It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse just to lose bets on athletic performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status. This is absolutely unacceptable and will put even more pressure on student-athletes while jeopardizing the integrity of the competition and recruiting processes.
“Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated market that does not follow any of the rules of legitimate sports betting operators.”
Kalshi prohibits users from trading with material non-public information and says it has “extensive monitoring systems, both in-house and third-party, that monitor suspicious activity.” Kalshi also has a partnership with Integrity Compliance 360, which monitors anomalies in the betting market. Kalshi said that if it discovers prohibited activity it will refer cases to the CFTC for enforcement.
Gambling industry trading site Ingame.com first reported Kalshi’s filing with the CFTC.
Prediction markets allow users to trade on yes/no outcomes of events, including sports. They operate under the supervision of the CFTC, which gives them access to all 50 states. In contrast, traditional sportsbooks are regulated by states and can only operate within jurisdictions that have passed sports betting laws. Sportsbook Fanatics has launched a predictions market, and DraftKings and FanDuel have announced their plans to enter the predictions market.
The NCAA and NFL have criticized prediction markets for the types of markets they offer. However, the NHL and UFC have partnered with prediction market companies like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The NCAA transfer portal for football is open for two weeks in January. The transfer portal window for men’s basketball is open for approximately one month, from late March to mid-April.
