Why are so many NHL games going to overtime this season?

Nearly a quarter of the way through the 2025-26 NHL season, a trend has exhausted legs, frazzled nerves and produced instant goal-scoring highlights:

Overtime games are being played at a record-setting rate.

In the first 425 games of the season, 27.3% of them had the score tied after regulation, requiring resolution in 3-on-3 overtime or a shootout. If this trend holds, it will be the highest percentage of games going to overtime since the shootout was implemented in the 2005–06 season, topping the 25% of games that went to OT in the 2013–14 season.

What is causing this increase in overtime games? Can this trend continue?

Here are five theories that have emerged during conversations with NHL players, coaches and executives about just how “extra” this season has been so far.

Theory: NHL parity means more overtime

dallas stars Coach Glenn Gulutzan has a theory about all these overtimes.

“To be honest, I think it’s a bit of a ‘crushed box’,” he said.

A crushed box?

“You have seen many top teams over the years and how they have lost their players to other teams,” he said. “And then the development of some of these young stars in the league who now have two, three years in the league… I think it’s affected the league a little bit.”

Parity is the force behind that squish — or “competitive balance,” as NHL commissioner Gary Bettman referred to it during the salary cap era. Entering Thursday night, 28 of the 32 teams in the NHL had a points percentage of .500 or better. At the end of last season, this number was 23 teams.

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Casey Mittelstadt leads Bruins to win with shootout goal

Casey Mittelstadt wins it in the shootout between the Bruins vs. the Red Wings.

For many in the NHL, “parity” is the answer.

“I think the teams are similar this year. There are a lot of tied games, a lot of one-goal games,” the Stars forward Mikko Rantanen Said.

“There’s a record level of parity in the league. I mean penultimate, I mean points difference and stuff, I can’t remember that happening really in my 10 years. I think it’s a really competitive league right now,” New Jersey Devils Ahead Connor Brown Said.

“You look at the situation, and if you’re on the top of the mountain, you’re not really on the top of the mountain. You’re in the middle of the forest. It’s very tight,” detroit red wings coach Todd McClellan said, via NHL.com.

League parity is nothing new, but there may be a twist on that theme for 2025-26: Some of the league’s rebuilding teams have gone ahead of schedule — and are playing a lot of overtime games.

san jose sharks Nine of their first 28 games went beyond regulation. chicago blackhawks There were seven such games in his first 26 games. anaheim ducks Seven of their first 27 games went beyond three periods.

“The top teams have lost some cap players, and the bottom teams have gone big and then gained some players,” Gulutzan said. “That’s what happens. It makes the situation worse.”

Principle: playing for a tie

With such a tight situation, every point counts. A tie game ending regulation means both teams score a point before overtime or a shootout determines who gets the second point in the standings.

stars ahead jason robertson It has been said that teams do not put the pedal down if overtime is signaled.

“With a few minutes left, I feel like nobody’s really pressing,” he said.

Devils coach Sheldon Keefe believes the number of games being tied in the third period is increasing.

“The teams are probably a little more conservative in nature to ensure that you get at least one [point]So a lot of what’s happening during the first two periods is coming to set the table for that,” he said,

But what if Keefe’s team gets the lead in the third period?

“When you’re playing with a lead, you’re conscious of your opponents’ quick-strike ability and how diligent you have to be,” he said.

Theory: No Lead Is Safe Anymore

Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek never feels comfortable when his team has a multiple-goal lead.

“No matter which team you’re playing against, they’ve got game breakers,” he said. “You go down by two goals, it’s not the end of the world. We’ve come back from being down by two goals many times.”

It wasn’t long ago that a multi-goal deficit in the third period meant the game was over. Today, those types of rallies seem common. Last season, 43% of games were comeback wins, the second highest rate in NHL history. According to the NHL, 74% of last season’s wins were in “close games”, meaning games that were decided by 2-plus goals after a goal or an empty-netter. This was the highest rate in NHL history.

“Comebacks and teams that are tying games and coming from behind, I think there’s an upward trend in that area,” Keefe said.

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Simon Nemec scores OT winner for Devils

Simon Nemec scored the game-winning goal in overtime to give New Jersey the victory.

This trend began in 2018–19, when the league averaged over two goals per game in the third period. It has remained above that average for the last seven seasons. Through 850 games in 2025-26, the NHL is averaging 2.14 goals per game in the third period, which is in line with the previous four seasons. The shooting percentage in the third period this season is 12% in the third period. Last season it was 11.8%, almost a full percentage point higher than the previous season.

Gulutzan believes that special teams are a key factor in these comeback wins. The NHL power-play conversion rate has averaged over 20% in six of the last eight seasons. The 21.6% conversion rate last season was the highest since the 1985–86 season. Through 425 games this season, teams are converting on the power play at a rate of 19.9%.

“These power plays have become so good that over the last few years, the game can turn on offense,” said Gulutzan, who ran it edmonton oilers‘ power play before joining the Stars as head coach last summer.

Verbeek agreed.

“I think it all comes down to obviously the rules and how the game is being played. The power play also matters,” he said. “The refs aren’t afraid to call a power play at any point in the game, so it carries over into it. You’re never out of it.”

But does all this lead to much of a comeback in the third period?

According to ESPN Research, there have been 68 comebacks this season in which a team trailed at any time in the third period. This is five more wins than the league’s previous season, but only the third highest figure of the last six seasons. At this time in 2023–24, the NHL had achieved 78 third period comeback wins.

Theory: Coaching strategy leads to more OT

Gulutzan said coaches have had to adapt to this surge in third-period scoring, but it’s more about managing emotions than anything systematic.

“What’s changed is your message a little bit, and the fact that two up [goals] Or two down you see wild swings and you don’t get out of it. There is less nervousness on the bench. Just stay focused on your game a little bit,” he said, “I think your mentality has changed a little bit. Nothing tactically.”

Keefe also said it’s not because the coaches are rewriting their game plan.

He said, “For me it’s about rhythm, consistency and confidence. I wouldn’t say we make any real adjustments. We still want to be aggressive. You want to play on the other team’s half of the ice, just maybe be a little more intelligent with the puck and your line changes.” “But the plan hasn’t really changed.”

But Stathlets co-founder and hockey data analyst Meghan Chayka believes the numbers point to a tactical shift on the part of coaches. “Teams are defending the edge more conservatively,” he said.

This has been a continuous trend. Chayka said the chances of scoring in the last 10 minutes of a game have decreased by 5.57% since 2015.

He also believes that how coaches choose to manage their goaltenders is also impacting the toughness of the game late in regulation.

He said, “In 2015, 10 goalkeepers played more than 60 games, with 68 games being the most. Last season, five goalkeepers played more than 60 games and 63 games was the most.”

Theory: This too shall pass?

Over the past nine seasons, the number of overtime games in the NHL has remained constant:

2024-25: 20.5%
2023-24: 20.7%
2022-23: 23%
2021-22: 22%
2020-21: 22.5%
2019-20: 23.1%
2018-19: 21.3%
2017-18: 23.3%
2016-17: 23.5%

So as far as overtime games go, the range is between 21%-24%. It’s not hard to see a scenario in which this season normalizes that trend after some unusual stretches early in the season – including weeks in which 35% and 39% of all games went to overtime, respectively.

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Wyatt Johnston wins it for Stars in shootout

Wyatt Johnston wins it for Stars in shootout

Or maybe it won’t happen. “The game has become more random this season,” Chayka says, especially when viewing results through the lens of sports betting.

He said, “Looking at the numbers and specifically how accurate the betting lines are at predicting game winners, the level of error is constantly increasing, meaning it has become harder and harder to predict games.”

To that end, Chayka said that according to Statlets, the expected score winner has been the actual game winner only 54% of the time.

Conclusion: Obviously, regulation wins should count towards three points, right?

Many fans and media members have argued that making regulation wins worth three points – while a regulation loss gets nothing, an OT/shootout win gets two points and a loss after regulation gets one point – would be an inducement for teams to avoid overtime play.

Others are not as keen on the “3-2-1” scoring system. Former NHL GM Brian Burke once told ESPN that “by Christmas you’ll have teams mathematically out of the playoffs” and “I’d rather have a sharp stick put in my eye than a three-point regulation win”.

Robertson is also not a fan of three-point regulation wins.

“I’m traditional. I don’t really like any real change,” he said. “I really enjoy the shootout. I think it’s great for hockey. I love it. I love watching it as a fan, just being at home, the shootout is on, I’d rather watch the shootout than overtime.”

So far, it’s been their kind of season: Only 65.5% of games tied after regulation have been decided in overtime. This would be the highest percentage of games going to a shootout since 2021-22.