2025-26 MLB free agency, trade grades: Offseason analysis

It’s hot stove season! 2025–26 MLB offseason It’s officially here, and we’ve provided you with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.

Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the direction of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll take a look at what it means for next season and beyond.

ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move, so follow along here — this story will be updated. Check back for the latest analysis leading up to the start of spring training.

Related Links: tracker , Top 50 Free Agents

deal: five years
Category: A-

If free agent predictions were more likely to come true, there would be a reward for Josh Naylor’s return seattle mariners Would have been the front running back, so it’s no surprise this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As the Mariners’ season ended with a heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. That kind of public outspokenness is rare at that level – and the Mariners backed him with a five-year contract.

It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, 20 years – in fact, ever since they traded John Olerud in 2004. ty france He’s slated to have some solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first baseman has produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.

Naylor, meanwhile, came over from Arizona at the trade deadline and provided a big spark, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBI in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished 2025 at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs. It’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, but Neller explained how much he loves hitting there. The stats confirm this: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and driven in .534 runs.

Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; He finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s whole game is a bit contradictory. He’s only in the seventh percentile in chase rate, but still has a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) along with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percent!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19 for 19 after joining the Mariners. It doesn’t seem like he’ll be fast on the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the last four seasons.

He’s no star – 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high – but he’s a safe, predictable player for the next few years. The deal runs through his age-33 season, so perhaps there is some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. –David Scoenfield