Week 12 Anger Index: Why a No. 15 ranking isn’t good enough for Miami

Anger is a natural and often completely justified emotion, but it can also be a bit like losing your car keys. There’s frustration, outrage, frustration, and a series of adjectives that would make Pat Narduzzi blush, and then when the emotions reach their peak, you realize that the keys have been in your coat pocket the whole time.

It was the same with last week’s anger index.

BYU was right to be disappointed that despite an unblemished record, it was behind three one-loss teams.

Without a single team in the top 13, the ACC’s outrage was entirely justified, despite Louisville and Virginia’s rankings being much better than the two losing teams.

Memphis certainly had a bigger challenge, being sent to the committee equivalent of an “others getting votes” sanction when three losing teams from across the state made the top 25.

So, sure, we screamed and yelled and cursed the committee, and by the end of Week 11, we imagine those same committee members sitting in a big chair, petting a cat and howling smugly like Bond villains.

But it is a lesson worth learning – not for the angry and aggrieved, but for the committee.

Because the committee is made up of some particularly intelligent college football minds, those people can look at a team’s performance and create a trend line. They can look at Virginia squeaking by in close games or compare the recruiting pedigree of BYU’s roster with SEC teams and make a perfectly reasonable prediction that, before long, those teams’ flaws will become apparent and the results committee will be proven right.

But it’s a bit like watching the Kentucky Derby, seeing the leader drop down the stretch and a favorite charging from behind. Can we predict the outcome with some level of certainty? Sure. But you don’t call the race right there.

The committee’s job is to survey the evidence at hand and capture that specific moment in time, not to speculate about the future – as predictable as it may be.

So, yes, BYU and Louisville and Virginia and Memphis had reason to be angry, even if the committee’s predictions ultimately came true, just as the disappointment of this week’s entrants on the Anger Index is entirely justified, regardless of what happens from here.

Georgia is one spot ahead of Alabama in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings this week. But the two teams have similar records and the Tide has the head-to-head advantage, so the committee – rightly – has Alabama ranked higher.

The SP+ actually has Oklahoma (ninth) ahead of Texas (14th) by a wide margin, and the Sooners’ overall profile is even better with wins against Michigan and Tennessee. But again, the two schools have the same record, and Texas has won the head-to-head, so the committee ranked the Horns higher.

Or consider Louisville and Virginia. The Cardinals (26th) are a full 15 spots ahead of Virginia in SP+ and 14 spots higher in strength of record. And it doesn’t matter that Virginia’s blowout win over the Cardinals came in overtime and required two defensive touchdowns, the committee appreciates what happened on the field, and it ranks the Cavaliers higher.

Similarly, the committee has ranked USC ahead of Michigan, BYU ahead of Utah, and Georgia ahead of Ole Miss, partly because the metrics bear it out, but also because, in each case, the higher-ranked team gets the head-to-head win.

Please explain why Miami is different.

Hurricane’s metrics are solid. They are 13th in SP+, 13th in strength of record, have four wins against FPI top 35 teams (i.e. the top 25% of FBS) – more than anyone except Texas A&M and Alabama – and, of course, have the same record as Notre Dame and a head-to-head win over the Irish.

However, the committee ranked Notre Dame ninth and Miami 15th.

This is meaningless at first glance, and even worse when you consider that the committee also ranks Texas (with worse losses than Miami), Utah (just one FPI top-35 win) and Vanderbilt (four spots behind Miami in FPI).

Then again, it’s certainly possible that the ‘Canes lose to NC State this week – a team that has already beaten Virginia and Georgia Tech – but that’s not the point. The committee should not speculate about what will happen next. It is believed that teams are ranked based on what they have done so far, and there is no metric that obviously guarantees Miami’s placement behind so many two-loss teams with inferior resumes.

It may seem like the difference between No. 5 and No. 6 in the committee’s rankings isn’t much, but consider this: Ohio State and Indiana will likely play in the Big Ten title game. Some combination of Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama will play in the SEC title game. There’s a strong possibility that some of the current top four members of the committee will slip from that top spot and get a first-round bye for a first-round home game, and someone else will move up to the top tier and enjoy a week off when the playoffs begin.

Texas Tech should have the inside track on that bye, but the Red Raiders don’t, as Georgia is still ahead of them.

Why?

Texas Tech has now played two top-13 teams and defeated them by a combined score of 63–17. Georgia’s two best wins (vs. No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 23 Tennessee) came by a combined 11 points.

Texas Tech has a loss to Arizona State, which looks bad on paper, but the Sun Devils are actually in good shape, and they won that game in healthy fashion. Sam LevittSurely this is a better loss than Alabama’s loss to Florida State, right?

Yes, it matters who you play, and in this case, Alabama (No. 4 SOR) and Georgia (No. 5) have had a tough road. But how you play also matters and the Red Raiders have been far more effective. Texas Tech has the second-best average in game winning chances in the country, trailing only Ohio State. Alabama is ranked 17th. Georgia is ranked 36th. Yes, credit to the Tide and Dawgs for winning close games. But Texas Tech deserves more credit for avoiding close games altogether.

As a general rule, if Lane Kiffin is pointing out a flaw in the committee’s reasoning, the committee should take note of it. It’s not worth the retribution he’ll ultimately be dealt with one mercilessly hilarious tweet.

Lane Kiffin makes Texas A&M claim to be #1

“Texas A&M is ranked No. 3, what more do you want to get them to No. 1?”

“They went up to Notre Dame and won.”

“What good did he do if he was not rewarded?

“He has the highest metrics of everyone and not just No. 1.” pic.twitter.com/NJ0m7qWVrw

– SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) 10 November 2025

And, of course, Kiffin is right. What else does Texas A&M need to do to regain the No. 1 spot? The Aggies have the No. 1 strength of record, an important position for the committee. A&M has five wins against FPI top-35 teams; The state of Ohio has four. A&M’s best win is vs. No. 9 Notre Dame. It’s Ohio State vs. No. 10 Texas. A&M has played the 15th toughest schedule ever (according to ESPN’s metrics), while Ohio State has played the 41st.

Ultimately, the difference between being a top seed and a No. 3 seed is minimal, and given that Ohio State and Indiana will face off in the Big Ten title game, it’s likely the Aggies will enter the postseason at No. 2. No harm really done. But this is the principle of the thing. If A&M has the best resume, it should be No. 1, because no one wants to spend the entire offseason listening to Greg Sankey complain about unfair treatment with the SEC.

Last week, we thought the Cougars were underappreciated. Then they went out and lost to Texas Tech and its brutal defense and fell from No. 7 to No. 12 – or, well, out of the playoffs.

But does it make sense to hand out such a huge punishment for the defeat of one of the best teams in the country? To leave BYU behind three two-loss teams, each of which lost to a much worse team than the Red Raiders?

Of course that’s not the case, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. How about this comparison?

Team A: Number of records 7 strength, Number of schedule 24 strength, two wins vs SP+ top-40 teams by an average of four points, one loss vs top 10 team by 10 at home

Team B: No. 8 strength of record, No. 28 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top-40 teams by an average of eight points, one loss to a top 10 team on the road at No. 22

You’ve probably guessed that Team B is BYU, and the No. 8 strength of record metric alone should make the committee’s ranking look ridiculous.

But Team A? That’s Oregon, which got its best win of the season in a game in Week 11 when it nearly lost to Iowa.

BYU and Oregon have similar records. BYU has a win over the committee’s No. 13 team, which is better than Oregon’s win over No. 21 Iowa (which is unranked in the AP Poll). They both have understandable losses, but BYU was on the road.

And the committee sees BYU four spots behind Oregon.

Make it meaningful.

A quick blind resume:

Team A: SP+ No. 12, best win against the committee’s No. 18 team, SP+ losses to Nos. 6 and 23 by a combined 12 points, 17.8 points-per-game average margin of victory against FBS opponents who are a combined 38-29 in other FBS games.

Team B: SP+ No. 14, best win against the committee’s No. 11 team, SP+ losses to Nos. 1 and 48 by a combined 15 points, an average margin of victory of 13.1 points-per-game against FBS opponents who are a combined 33-34 in other FBS games.

There’s not much difference between the two, but you’d probably give Team A a slight edge, right? Apart from Team B having a slight advantage in its best wins, Team A has a better performance overall.

Well, Team A is the Trojans.

Team B? That would be Texas, which the committee ranks seven spots higher.

As we showed with Miami’s spot, there’s certainly room for a lot of debate around the two losing teams, but given that Notre Dame and Texas are currently on the right side of the playoff dividing line, and Miami and USC (and others) are not, it’s a debate that requires a lot more investigation. But somehow, USC seems to be the least scrutinized of the two losing teams – a team that has been largely ignored despite some real success.

And it certainly feels like the committee has looked at Miami’s loss to SMU and USC’s loss to Illinois and deemed these so serious that they don’t need further consideration, while completely ignoring the fact that Texas lost in a train wreck. Florida Gators That squad has since fired its coach and gone to overtime with both Kentucky and Mississippi State. It’s also notable that the committee continues to rank three-loss Iowa, which has a strength of record No. 30, but not three-loss Illinois, which has a strength of record No. 18. By keeping the Hawkeyes in the top 25, things look much better for fellow Pac-12-to-Big Ten transfer Oregon, and by keeping Illinois out, things look worse for the Trojans.

Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (8-1, unreserved), Tulane Green Wave (7-2, unreserved), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unreserved), illinois fighting illini (6-3, unreserved), North Texas Mean Green (8-1, unreserved), the pit fan (For those worried Notre Dame is going to hang 100 on them,