President Trump has hinted that the United States could send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which would allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to attack military targets inside Russia. The Kremlin has warned that the move will increase tensions between Moscow and Washington.
Trump suggested this week that Tomahawks would be a central point of discussion when the two leaders meet for a third time in Washington on Friday.
“I know what he has to say. He wants guns. He wants Tomahawks. Everybody else wants them, and we have a lot of Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.
Experts told The Hill this week that the missiles, designed to fly at high subsonic speeds and low altitudes to better avoid radar, would give Kiev much greater range and capability to strike Russian military targets and energy facilities such as oil and gas infrastructure.
Tomahawks, which the US began developing in the 1970s and were fired first Used by the US Army during Operation Desert Storm in 1991, can have a range of up to 1,000 miles depending on the type.
Munitions range far greater than directed Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)Which was given to Ukraine by the administration of former President Biden in 2023. ATACMS has a range of up to 190 miles.
“There are many possible targets that Ukraine could attack. It could continue a strike campaign against oil refineries and inflict even more damage against them, which would certainly hurt Russia,” said Emil Kasthelmi, a military analyst and co-founder of Finland-based Black Bird Group, who closely follows the Russia-Ukraine war.
Kasthelmy said Ukraine could target Russia’s command elements, electric warfare stations, air bases, logistics hubs and other locations, which “would be a new headache for Moscow”.
Zelensky had earlier said that Ukraine would use munitions that could fly. SpeedWith a speed of more than 500 mph and carrying explosives, meant only for military purposes and not to target civilians, would the US provide them?
“These missiles will be used to attack high-value military targets currently out of reach, such as the naval base in Novorossiysk, and key air bases such as Olenya in Murmansk Oblast, which Russia controls,” said Vladislav Sobolevsky, co-founder of the Snake Island Institute, a Ukrainian group trying to strengthen ties with the US. “Uses it as the main launchpad for large-scale missile attacks against Ukrainian cities.” armed forces told The Hill on Wednesday.
Russia has said that the arrival of Tomahawk missiles will further escalate the conflict, which has been going on for about three and a half years. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev caution On Monday, the US was potentially supplying Tomahawk missiles to Kiev, which could “end badly” for everyone, including Trump.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Said It said this week that such deliveries could “escalate” the conflict into a “nuclear” war and claimed Trump is in no rush to send long-range weapons.
Military analysts disagreed, saying that the risk of escalating tensions throughout the war has been “extreme” and that Putin still wants to avoid direct conflict with the US and NATO.
Dr. Stacy Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security think tank, said, “Tomahawks will improve Ukraine’s long-range lethality, but they are not a wonder weapon. And they will be effective only with extensive Western flight planning and assistance. So the US can control the risk by probing potential deep targets in Russia.”
Black Bird Group military analyst Kasthelmi argued that it is “difficult” for Russia to escalate the war further, so “actions will likely be asymmetric and directed toward the West.”
He added, “On the other hand, it is difficult to assess which actions will be specifically caused by the Tomahawks and which are related to the otherwise tense general situation and other military assistance provided to Ukraine.”
Military experts said a potential US supply of Tomahawks, which are usually launched from US Navy ships and submarines, would not be a “game-changer” for Ukraine, but would further enrich Ukraine’s existing arsenal of long-range missiles, which already includes Flamingo cruise and Neptune anti-ship missiles.
“What it can offer is bigger numbers and, therefore, they will get additional leverage and an opportunity to attack Russian energy facilities like refineries. That’s probably Ukraine’s biggest lever to persuade the Russians to negotiate,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview with The Hill. “They’re not going to do it on the ground. They don’t have the capability to hurt the Russians enough.”
Kasthelmy said the Tomahawks would force Russia to make some “adaptations” because the Kremlin would not know in advance how Ukraine would use the missiles.
“Sure, then maybe rearrange and prioritize your missile defense, but Russia is already struggling with drone attacks,” he said. “So even if the drones have a slightly higher interception rate, Ukraine could still get through the refineries.”
According to the Navy, the U.S. military has fired more than 2,300 Tomahawks during combat operations since 1991, including in Libya and Syria. Most recently, the navies of the United States and United Kingdom fired Tomahawk missiles against Houthi rebels in Yemen last year.
Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the Pentagon’s current stockpile of Tomahawks amounts to about 4,000 missiles, but that this includes “some obsolete missiles that the Ukrainians may be able to use.”
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment.
Trump said he knew Zelensky wanted to argue for supplying more arms to the US during an upcoming meeting in the Oval Office.
“They will want to be aggressive, you know that and we have to make that determination,” the president told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.
When contacted for comment, the White House referred Trump’s comments to The Hill on Tuesday.
Ukraine would need at least “a few hundred” Tomahawks to conduct a sustained bombing campaign, as according to Kasthelmy, a few dozen missiles “wouldn’t really have a very heavy impact”.
Experts said that if Tomahawks were supplied, Ukraine would have to use ground launchers to fire the missiles.
“Although the Tomahawk was developed as a naval system, and it is launched from the sea, there are also land-based launchers. The Marine Corps developed some and built some,” Cancion said. “And now they’re actually deactivating those units so they can actually send them to Ukraine. So there’s no problem launching them on the ground.”
Tomahawk missiles are manufactured by defense contractor Raytheon.
The Ukrainian delegation arrived in the US this week ahead of the Oval Office meeting.
Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, who is part of the group, wrote in a post on Telegram and x: “Their technologies save lives: the F-16 and modern air defense systems protect Ukrainian skies, and their offensive solutions reliably support our forces at the front.”
