Who is shadowing the Virginia gubernatorial debate on Thursday? Controversy related to leaked text messages From Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, in which he expressed concerns about using violence against the former GOP state House speaker.
Republicans, including President Trump, came out in large numbers and called on Jones to step down.
Now former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor, will be forced to address the issue live during Thursday’s debate. His GOP opponent, Lieutenant Governor Winsom Earl-Sears (R), has already released several ads attacking Spanberger over the controversy.
The debate comes as Spanberger has maintained a solid lead over Earl-Sears, who have spent much of the race bent on issues of cost and affordability, as well as recent cuts to the federal workforce under Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency. The latest government shutdown and questions about whether furloughed workers will receive back pay are also likely to figure into the race and Thursday’s debate.
Here are five things to watch for in the debate.
How does Spanberger address the Jones controversy?
Spanberger will almost certainly be asked whether he thinks Jones should drop out of the race, forcing him to respond once again to a controversy that is threatening to overturn the election in Virginia.
News of Jones’ text messages were first reported by National Review and published later over the weekend by the Republican Attorneys General Association.
Jones sent a message to Republican Del. Cary Coiner about firing former House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R) in 2022. The Democrat was not in elected office at the time.
Spanberger’s campaign immediately expressed its displeasure at the news, issuing a statement after the leak saying that he had conveyed his “disgust” to Jones in a conversation. However, Republicans are arguing that Spanberger did not ask Jones to drop out.
Some Democrats have noted that the conservative record of current Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) and ties to Trump automatically make Jones the better choice. Others say Spanberger would be taking a risk in asking Jones to drop out because there is a possibility he would ignore the call, given that the attorney general race is different from the governor’s race.
Hundreds of thousands of voters have already cast their ballots in early voting, and Jones will appear on the ballot when voters go to the polls on Election Day in November.
Despite this, Spanberger would be forced to confront the issue once again. The debate is being hosted by WAVY-TV, which is owned by The Hill’s parent company Nexstar Media Group. The forum is being held in Norfolk, which is also Jones’ hometown.
DOGE likely to play major role in shutdown
Had it not been for the controversy surrounding Jones, the topic of conversation in the governor’s race would likely have been how furloughed government workers are faring during the government shutdown.
Spanberger has made the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce under DOGE a central theme in his campaign due to the large number of federal employees living and working in the commonwealth.
Earl-Sears has struggled to respond to attacks throughout the campaign. The most notable example of this occurred during a CNN interview in August when the lieutenant governor debated with an anchor on the topic.
While DOGE’s cuts to the federal workforce happened earlier this year, the welfare of federal employees is still in the news.
On Tuesday, a Trump administration official confirmed to The Hill that a draft memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) argued that the law does not automatically guarantee that all furloughed employees are guaranteed back pay.
Since this issue is still front and center on the national stage and directly impacting Virginians, Earl-Sears will likely be forced to offer her stance on the matter on Thursday’s debate stage.
How will Earl-Sears handle Trump?
Trump has not yet formally thrown his support behind Earl-Sears, but he has spoken positively about her campaign. She has praised the President in the past, although she has also broken ties with him in the past.
Following the Republicans’ underwhelming performance in the 2022 midterms, Earl-Sears appeared to be critical of Trump when she said in an interview that a true leader understands when they have become a liability. She has since said that she would be honored to receive their support.
But Trump fiercely attacked Earl-Sears in 2022, calling her a “hypocrite” and saying he never felt good about her.
Earl-Sears should be cognizant of Trump’s hold on the GOP base, which Republicans need to enforce in Virginia. However, he also needs to be aware of Trump’s general high unpopularity in Virginia, especially in the wake of the DOGE cuts.
Spanberger could very well use the debate to connect Earl-Sears to the president, which she did in her last ad released before the debate earlier this week.
Earl-Sears searches for breakout moment
While Spanberger has focused on the effects of the DOGE cuts on Virginians, as well as cost and affordability, Earl-Sears has struggled to find an issue that appeals to a broad cross section of the state’s voters.
In recent weeks, Earl-Sears has turned her attention to transgender issues in schools, seemingly taking a page out of Youngkin’s playbook by focusing on education and parental rights. Additionally, Earl-Sears has attacked Spanberger over the Jones controversy.
Still, strategists say Earl-Sears’ strategy of attacking Spanberger is not enough to win voters outside the conservative tent, arguing that she needs to give voters a reason to vote for her rather than against Spanberger.
A statewide debate could be the last moment for Earl-Sears to get that message across as Spanberger takes the lead in paid advertising.
Can Spanberger have an uneventful debate?
The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race certainly changed course in the final debate between Youngkin and former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D), when McAuliffe suggested he did not believe parents should have a say in what their children should learn in school. Republicans immediately embraced those comments, and at least some observers attributed McAuliffe’s defeat in part to his words.
This time around, Democratic candidates will clearly be trying to avoid such a moment. Spanberger has pursued a safe and disciplined strategy through his campaign, and has focused heavily on his top issues of cost and affordability.
They will have an opportunity to show their stance on those and other issues Thursday evening, but they will need to come prepared on the issues on which Republicans have attacked Democrats so far, including transgender issues and the Jones controversy.
