If President Trump ends the Russo-Ukrainian war with a durable peace, he will definitely be worth the Nobel Peace Prize. But the main word is “durable”. For a long -term lasting for an agreement it takes to dry the ink on the document, it should be acceptable, and should be accepted by both sides.
Recreationary acceptance refers to some extent equally distributed benefits and disadvantages. One of some other aspects will be considered inappropriate and unjust, likely.
The equal distribution of profit and disadvantage is the support of aggressive. In theory, aggression should not be rewarded with any benefit. It should be punished with damage, whether it is in the form of a re -evaluation or loss of the acquired area.
At this point, the reality of power collides with the principle, and it can prove to be impossible to punish the aggressive degree. The agreement may be unavoidable, even if it is unacceptable to the victim.
Thus there are two valid and durable methods to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russia and Ukraine may agree to a deal that decreases with each of their desired loops, or Russia may be an epiphyne and voluntarily abandon its imperialist war.
In the first example, both sides will be unhappy, but equally. This can prevent them from taking revenge or otherwise increasing their relationships. Given the current rejection of any agreement less than its maximum demand for the destruction of Ukraine, it may agree to such a deal, if Ukraine is forced by tremendous effort combined by America, America and Europe.
In the second example, Trump Vladimir would encourage Putin to height Pyongyang and then whatever less or less rational Russian leader makes him successful. Apparently, Putin will not oblige Trump, which means that Trump will have no option to force Putin to see the light to provoke Ukrainian and enable them to reverse the Russian regional advances.
In both scenarios, Russia can only be brought to the table of interaction by force. On his own, Putin cannot choose an alternative to peace – a fact that neither Trump nor his leading advisor, Steve Witcoff, appreciates. But to understand that Putin is not interested in sustainable peace, the first and most important step on the road for peace.
New York Times as Thomas Freedman Puts it“Putin is a bad man, a cold -coated murderer. He is not a friend of the president. It’s a fantasy that Trump choose to believe that it is real.”
But being a cold -classed murderer, only half the problem is; This is why Putin does not want peace. There are many reasons.
First, Putin really believes that the Ukrainian state should be destroyed to survive Russia. It is absurd, of course, but also the surefire reality. As a separate people, to drive Ukrainian a mandatory is an essential for Putin. No agreement is possible.
Second, Putin has completely identified himself with war. it’s his. As a result, their political – and possibly physical -survival depends on the result of war. And given that the war has killed more than 1 million Russians or injured and ruined that once a large capacity of an economy, not once, will be less than a handful of victory.
Third, Putin knows that if and when the war ends, several hundred thousand soldiers would land like locusts on the commodity, aggressive and armed-Russian society and will already increase the criminality of high levels. Putin knows from Russian history that even soldiers who return hungry can bring the government down.
Fourth, Putin has created a war economy that benefits a large part of the population and a variety of clans. Eliminating war means that transition from that kind of economy to a consumer economy and experiencing adjustment difficulties and potentially large recession.
Finally, the war enables Putin to show off that Russia is still a great power. Once the war is over, Russia and especially their neckstone will be seen that his magnificent leader has converted his country into an appendage of China and North Korea. Cheap vacation packages The Hermit Kingdom will be small consolation for loss of reputation.
The moral of the story is clear.
If Trump really wants a Nobel to bring peace to Ukraine and Russia, they will have to address the primary root cause of war: ie, Putin. Anything is a fake conversation that can only produce a fake peace.
Alexander J. Motel Ratagar is a professor of political science in university-dear. An expert on Ukraine, Russia and USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and principles, he is the author of 10 books, as well as “”Imperial ends: Decay, collapse and revival of empires “and” and “Why do the empire remarks: Royal collapse and royal revival in comparative perspective. ,
