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seth walder
multiple authors
nfl free agency The legal negotiation window will begin on March 9, but the action has already begun. jets and titans took the first big step Last week in the offseason, New York sent edge rusher Jermaine Johnson Tennessee for defensive tackle t’vondre sweat. Texans and Browns monday followedHouston sent offensive tackle titus howard The Browns have a fifth-round selection. And the Lions made a surprise move later on Monday, Business rushing back david montgomery To Texas for safety Juice Scruggs And two draft picks.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the offseason’s biggest signings and trades, putting each deal in perspective for the teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of the team’s short- and long-term outlook. How big is the impact of this decision, and how confident are we that it is a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chances of winning a Super Bowl this season or in the future?
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grade at the top. Let’s start with the Montgomery deal.
More Coverage:
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Visit a notable deal:
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Texas gets: RB david montgomery
Lions get: Yes Juice Scruggs2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick
Texans Grade: D
Lions Grade: A
At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with a second-year man woody marks. They chose to do this by quickly acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit for that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Although Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he recorded 31 more rush yards than expected, another indication that the offensive line was the problem.
In Montgomery, the Texans acquired a reliable veteran who recorded 125 more rush yards than expected with Detroit in 2025, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. But in recent years their role has steadily diminished with the emergence of Jahmir Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball in 219 games. By 2025, these numbers dropped to 37% and 158 respectively, despite playing 17 games. Montgomery’s receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs — as his 24 receptions last season weren’t even close to the 54 receptions he caught with the Bears in 2020.
Montgomery’s contract is fair: If retained, it would cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million next year without guarantees). But that doesn’t mean it was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), quickly aging guy whose former team was phasing him out, it’s not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure the four-seven swap here because the Texans could have gotten comparable expected production at a much lower price.
Scruggs is a reclamation project for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston’s offensive line. Among guards, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentile in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at the Center in 2024 were worse than they were third Percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft selection here should be more than enough for the Lions. They could use that capital to find someone else to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. This win is as easy as the Lions will get all offseason.
The Browns get: ot titus howard
Texas gets: 2026 fifth round pick
Brown Grade: D+
Texans Grade: A-
One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside for a safety in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland has begun a massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I am having difficulty seeing how.
With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look quite different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on it right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — whoever that is. shadure sanders Or someone else – and it’s important to keep that player straight.
Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns address their other holes already, but right tackle seems to be the safest bet as it is where he has played most often.
Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate in tackles and the 31st percentile in run block win rate in tackles last season. He was below average in both in 2024 as well. It’s not like that Always Here’s the thing – Howard ranks in the top 10 in pass block win rate per tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he’s scored poorly in run blocking in all of those seasons.
So the Browns are likely to get a below average starter. And that’s not cheap. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Howard is expected to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) and is now signing a two-year, $45 million extension.
Before this deal, the Browns were sitting just under $1 million under the 2026 cap hit OverTheCap.comHowever, their cap constraints in 2027 are significantly lighter. But is that where they want to spend their resources, paying a fifth-round pick in what could be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? This is not how I want to start the offseason.
This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnovers for the Texans, but I don’t mind their move. houston requirements Better blocking to protect the quarterback CJ Stroud And build a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL in run block win rate (32nd), 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.
Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who had plenty of open space along the offensive line, with both ed ingram And trent brown Ready to become a free agent. They will need to add offensive line help at some point and set aside money to pay edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. -And maybe Stroud too. So getting a fifth-round pick for not paying Howard seems like a good business move.
The Jets get: DT t’vondre sweat
Titans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson
Jet Grade: A-
Titans Grade: C-
For all their mistakes, the Jets came out Last Year’s Trading Deadline with two best deals In that period. While barely on the same scale, they started the 2026 trade season with another smart move by trading Johnson out of Sweat in a one-for-one swap.
The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson had a good sack season in 2023, tallying 7.5 sacks on the way to a Pro Bowl nod. This came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I think is a key factor in why this deal was made.
But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks in his other three seasons in New York, although he played in only three games in 2024 Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson throughout his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the opening rush average over that span is 15.6%.
Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets defense and provide some pass rush at nose tackle. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He will join the Jets interior group which includes Harrison Phillips And jovon briggs.
As far as Johnson is concerned, the Titans need help on the edge. But that need doesn’t make it worth the cost.
Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, Per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and each of those years will cost the Jets $1.6 and $2.1 million, respectively. Sweat is also young and in my opinion has a better chance to become a plus contributor than Johnson. This makes this deal quite worthwhile for New York, especially considering that the Jets will be getting a player with team control for another year for less money.
