2026 NFL free agency: Most overrated, underrated players

nfl free agency Comes with his share of decisions. It is not enough to say that Defensive Tackle A is better than Defensive Tackle B. NFL teams must determine how much they are willing to pay each player. Yes, they are looking for talent and players who can fill the needs. But they are also looking for value.

Ahead of the start of the new league year next week, we’re picking out the most underrated and overvalued players heading into free agency.

It is fair to ask how one can determine whether a player is undervalued or overvalued. Since free agency hasn’t started, we don’t know what players will receive in compensation. but we have one Understanding. So I’m basing this largely on media consensus As we enter free agency.

So, let’s dive into the 2026 free agency class and find some free agents who are worth more (we think) than they are… and vice versa.

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underrated | arrogant

underrated

I know what you’re thinking. He’s the top-ranked quarterback in the class, so how can Willis be underrated? Because I think he’s the most important free agent in this class, Duration.

I came away thinking I would be a Willis skeptic for several reasons:

• Small sample (three starts in two seasons in Green Bay).

• The fact that his success came with a high-level playcaller like Matt LaFleur.

• He struggled to get on the field in his first two seasons at Tennessee and when he did, he wasn’t very good.

• Even after his success in Green Bay, he didn’t put in that much effort.

But I watched his start again against the Ravens in week 17And my opinion changed fundamentally. In that game, Willis showed his ability to throw with anticipation (one touchdown throw). Christian Watson deep into the middle of the field), the ability to change the angle of the arm (a throw). Romeo Doubs middle of the field), specific speed (22-yard touchdown run), throwing traits on the run (a pass) jaden reed downfield) and elusiveness in the pocket (avoiding a sack and throwing a 31-yard pass to Watson).

And the numbers in that small sample were staggering. Since joining Green Bay in 2024, Willis has an 86.3 QBR, averaging 9.2 yards per dropback and a 7% completion percentage above expectation (NFL Next Gen stats). If he was able to maintain that tough pace across a larger sample, all of these numbers would rank first among QBR-eligible quarterbacks over the past two seasons.

Finding a franchise quarterback in free agency is pretty much impossible. I’m not saying Willis is destined to be made, and I’m afraid to base plays on such a small number of plays. But if a franchise quarterback Were To emerge from free agency, he will look a lot like Willis – a player who was drafted in the early rounds and, after some development time, showed up in a small sample. For QB-needy teams, Willis offers them a real opportunity.

Signing Gainwell wouldn’t be as lucrative as signing the Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, travis etienne jr. Or Breece Hall. And Gainwell may not be a disappointment either way. But he could easily be a team man Best The running back and his contract won’t cost as much as the bigger names.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Gainwell is having a good season with the Steelers, recording 4.7 yards per carry and 63 rush yards more than expected. He recorded 10.6 yards per carry on plays in which he was not contacted for at least 3 yards – sixth best among all running backs with at least 100 carries.

But Gainwell really excels at passing downs. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he recorded 73 receptions for 486 yards at Pittsburgh last season, including a better-than-expected 82 receiving yards. This included both a higher-than-expected positive catch rate and a higher-than-expected positive YAC. The Steelers had Gainwell on the field on 77% of third-and-longs. So that can definitely be a value add.

due to chargers Deal with injury issues aggressivelySalyer played 343 snaps between both tackle spots scattered throughout the 2025 season. Result? Not so bad!

He finished in the 46th percentile in pass block win rate and the 40th percentile in run block win rate (postseason included). That’s hardly incredible but useful for someone who will likely have a cheaper contract than the Giants free agent. german elyumunor or like a player titus howardWho trade done From the Texans to the Browns and made a significant deal earlier this week.

I think Robinson will get a good job in free agency, but maybe not as much as him Needed Thanks to the reputation he built over the first three seasons of his career – that he’s just a small-area slot receiver.

Robinson’s role changed over the past season, as did his production. He lined up in the slot 52% of the time in 2025 (down from 72% a year ago). His average depth in three seconds on a pass was 8.3 yards (up from 7.2). And his air yards per target were 8.8 (above) on a large scale from 4.9 years ago). All of this coincided with a significant increase in performance, with his yards per route run increasing from 1.3 to 2.1.

Robinson had an impressive 28% goals rate last season. Part of this is the lack of goal competition later on. malik nabors tore his acl In week 4. But that goal share doesn’t happen unless Robinson is playing well, in which he scored 65 openers ESPN’s receiver score Displayed next.

Onyemata is 33 years old, but his numbers suggest he could be an ideal short-term solution at defensive tackle next season, especially in the light free agent class. Onyemata was in the 92nd percentile in run stop win rate among defensive tackles last season and in the 68th percentile in pass rush win rate despite only having one sack. The only drawback? He ranks in the 18th percentile in pressure rate.

Sure, Onimata isn’t that good John Franklin-Myers – the top defensive tackle in this class – but his contract will probably cost a lot less.

arrogant

I’m guessing Paye will get some money as a former first-round pick who has accumulated 30.5 sacks in five seasons. But I will be careful.

Among qualifying edge rushers, Paye finished Last The win rate in pass rush is only 4.5%. His pressure rate was in the 12th percentile among those same players. These are devastating numbers for down-to-down play. It was in the bottom quartile in both metrics even in 2024. His pass rush was on a winning streak About Average in 2023, but I believe his recent performance is too weak to make him worth real money.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Etienne improved in his final season in Jacksonville, giving up 1,103 rushing yards at a rate of 4.3 yards per carry in 17 games and finishing with 44 more rush yards than expected. It’s nice that the final numbers were positive, but Etienne was negative in that category the last two seasons — with a minus-77 RYOE in 2023 and a minus-43 in 2024 (to be fair, he had a whopping plus-231 in 2022).

Paying a high-cost contract to a running back who is not able to consistently receive what is blocked for him is not fair unless that back performs in a dominant manner in a different area. But Etienne doesn’t do that.

While he had six receiving touchdowns last season, his 36 receptions for 292 yards weren’t spectacular. And critically, the Jaguars only put Etienne on the field on third-and-7-plus plays. 6% of that time, which reflects what they thought of him after his death.

A year ago, I was willing to broach the idea that maybe Rodgers needed another year to break away from that 2023 Achilles injury To return to a highly productive quarterback.

But after a QBR of 44.4 last season – which ranked 23rd out of 28 qualifiers – I’m prepared to say the redemption ship has sailed. Rodgers is 42 years old and is hoping that 2026 will be the first season he plays good ball from 2021. Sure, there are glimpses here and there, moments when he can still let it rip and make a play with his arm. But mostly Rodgers gets the ball out very quickly (2.59 seconds, fastest in the NFL) so he can make short throws (76% of his passes were under 10 air yards, most in the league).

It’s a strategy that keeps him upright (his 10.8% QB hit rate is much better than the 14.4% league average) and results in very few turnovers. But that’s not enough to overcome 6.7 yards per attempt for a quarterback who can’t run.

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I expect Taylor to get paid after a legitimately good season and at a time when nickel corners are becoming increasingly valuable. But his profile is that of a player who scares me. Corners are extremely volatile from year to year, so I’m always a little cautious about purchasing after a big season.

he is especially True in Taylor’s case. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Taylor allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap playing primarily slot corner in 2023, which is much worse than the 1.1 average. In 2024, this time playing primarily outside, Taylor again surrendered 1.6 yards per coverage snap. Taylor had a breakout last season after moving back to nickel, allowing 1.0 yards per coverage snap and a minus-1.4 EPA after positive numbers (which indicate poor performance) the previous two seasons.

What level of performance is most likely? I think there’s a very good chance it will happen in 2025.

Reeder is a nose tackle whose run-stuffing numbers haven’t been impressive lately. With a sixth-percentile score among interior defenders, the run stop win rate is not in line with his performance last season.

I’ll be the first to tell you that there can be a fair amount of noise in our run-stopping metric, but defensive tackle has cleaner numbers than other positions. And Reader’s struggles are also supported by more basic statistics.

Reader’s tackle rate against the run was only in the ninth percentile. Even if we only compare his play at nose tackle to others playing the position, that number is still only in the 23rd percentile. He was also below average in run stop rate and stuff rate in NFL Next Gen stats compared to other defensive tackles.