race to pick number 1 2026 nfl draft After 15 weeks of freezing 2025 seasonAccording to ESPN, only five teams have at least a 1% chance of taking the top spot football power index (FPI) Estimates. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those lower-tier franchises again Take a look at mid-season,
Our NFL Nation reporters looked at what went wrong to get each team into this situation. Seth Walder used FPI to understand each team’s chances in their final three games. Dan Graziano rated each team’s likelihood of trading the No. 1 pick on a 1-10 scale. And finally, Jordan Reed took it further and suggested that it’s a possibility every front office could consider if they retain the top pick.
Let’s start with the Raiders, who currently have the best prospects with the first pick.
Join a team:
CLE , lv , NYG , NYJ , Ten
FPI’s chance to earn the No. 1 pick: 37.6%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 92.7%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Las Vegas has been a complete mess in terms of crime. since firing Under offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. He covered a total of 75 yards lost 31-0 For the Eagles last Sunday. quarterback geno smith Has lagged behind during the season, and the rookie running back ashton jeanty It has been tremendous. Neither player was helped by the offensive line’s inability to maintain protection or create space. The Raiders currently rank 22nd in pass block win rate (61.0%) and 18th in run block win rate (70.6%). –Ryan McFadden
What’s next on the schedule? Are they favored in any of the remaining games?
They aren’t favorites in either game, but don’t make the mistake of thinking the Raiders have the No. 1 pick locked up. their week 17 game against the Giants, who are ranked fourth on this list, and week 18 Against an already eliminated Chiefs team. Who knows what that game will look like. –Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that they will trade the pick?
1. All of these grades will be based on whether the team likes the top QB prospect – Indiana Fernando Mendoza Or whatever that might become – enough to justify the No. 1 pick. The Raiders are in desperate need of a real, long-term solution at quarterback and would be foolish to let the draft pass them by. –Graziano
Who is the best fit for them at the No. 1 prospect right now?
Mendoza. Adding Smith as a veteran presence backfired. The Raiders are in desperate need of a franchise QB, and this year’s one too. Heisman Trophy winner That shortcoming can be compensated for by being the top option in this class. Their toughness, politeness, and precision are qualities that can quickly stand out. The franchise has not selected a QB in Round 1 since 2007, when it selected JaMarcus Russell as the top pick. — Reed
FPI’s chance to earn the No. 1 pick: 20.3%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 89.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Crime. For the second consecutive season, the Browns have one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for fewest points allowed per game (4.3) this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Browns rank last in offensive EPA, and have cycled through three different starting quarterbacks – Joe Flacco, dillon gabriel And shadure sandersBut the issues extend beyond the QB, from repeated injuries and an underperforming offensive line to a lack of outside players, –Daniel Oyefusi
What’s next on the schedule? Are they favored in any of the remaining games?
They are certainly not favorites in any sport. face of browns Note, steelers And BengalStretch a higher level of difficulty. FPI favors Cleveland’s opponents by at least 8.5 points in each of those matchups, though it remains to be seen how the Bengals stand in Week 18. Still, Browns fans hoping to see their team lose have a good chance for that to happen.–Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that they will trade the pick?
4. Anyone who tells you they know what the Browns are going to do at QB next season is lying. They have two rookies (Sanders and Gabriel), deshaun watson Still on the roster at a cost of $46 million And two first-round picks in 2026. If they fall in love with Mendoza, I’m sure they’ll move her here. If they don’t love a QB prospect and feel good about having Sanders, Gabriel and/or Watson for another season, they can trade away and solve the problem in 2027 with even more draft capital. –Graziano
Who is the best fit for them at the No. 1 prospect right now?
Mendoza. I don’t think Gabriel and Sanders have shown enough this season to keep the Browns from finding their long-term answer under center. This season, the Browns rank 30th in passing yards per game (171.9) and last in total QBR (24.6). Possibly the most consistent passer in this class, Mendoza has the potential to bring stability to a franchise that has been lacking since. Baker Mayfield Was business In 2022. — Reed
2:18
Stephen A. Browns blame Stefanski for not developing QB
Stephen A. Smith called out Browns coach Kevin Stefanski for refusing to develop another quarterback while the team is trying out Shadure Sanders at QB.
FPI’s chance to earn the No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 88.9%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Lack of complementary football. There have been games when the Titans’ defense played well but ultimately became weak after being on the field too much because the offense could not sustain drives. Tennessee currently ranks 28th in time of possession and second-worst in total yards per game (250.5). But the attack has given the defense a chance to finish the game, as had happened before. week 11 (16-13 loss to Houston). It did not happen. -Turon Davenport
What’s next on the schedule? Are they favored in any of the remaining games?
They are not favored in any games by the FPI, but there are some winnable games. titans the chiefs are meeting Fresh off their playoff elimination and without a quarterback. patrick mahomes ,torn aclWill Kansas City make it a meaningless game? This wouldn’t be that shocking. And although the Saints are playing well, it’s not a surefire loss for Tennessee week 17But week 18 Could easily be a loss if the game is meaningful to the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. –Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that they will trade the pick?
9. I would be surprised if Tennessee landed a QB ranked No. 1 two years in a row. This never happened. The only reason it’s not a 10 is because a new coach might decide he’s not sold on a rookie quarterback. cam wardHowever, if that’s the case then why take the job? This front office, led by first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi, drafted Ward No, 1 overall last spring and has confidence in him, Therefore, it would be advisable to trade picks for future draft capital, –Graziano
Who is the best fit for them at the No. 1 prospect right now?
Arvel ReeseEdge/Linebacker, Ohio State. Needing talent on both sides of the ball, Reese is a versatile defender capable of playing edge rusher and off-ball linebacker. His combination of explosiveness, strength and physicality are all qualities that give him the potential to be a building block for a defense that already has a star defensive tackle. jeffrey simmons, — Reed
FPI’s chance to earn the No. 1 pick: 16.1%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 76.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Complete programme. The Giants fired the coach brian dabolldefensive coordinator Shane Bowen and assistant defensive line coach Brian Cox at various points this season. The defense has been extremely disappointing (ranking 30th in yards allowed per game) considering the talent, but that’s part of a larger problem. The Giants leadership, culture and locker room are all bad. How else do you explain winning five of the last 31 games? –Jordan Raanan
What’s next on the schedule? Are they favored in any of the remaining games?
FPI, which is particularly fond of veterans this season, is favoring them this week Against the Vikings (although DraftKings has Minnesota as a 3-point favorite). next weekBoth the betting line and FPI agree that the Giants should be favored against the Raiders. And our model makes cowboy-veterans week 18 game Select them. All of this is a big part of the reason why the Giants aren’t higher on this list. –Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that they will trade the pick?
8. Like I said about the Titans, except the Giants may have a new coach. And New GM if Joe Schoen is replaced. And if that new leadership has concerns about the quarterback jackson dart‘s durability and felt 100 percent confident in the QB prospects in this class, they might make this move. But then again, this would be a big surprise from an organization that has reason to believe last spring first round selection, –Graziano
Who is the best fit for them at the No. 1 prospect right now?
Reese. Like the Titans, the Giants have their own QB in place of Dart. with edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux Entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2026, Reese could transform into an edge rusher, off-ball linebacker hybrid if Thibodaux is not brought back. Simply taking the best available player approach, he would make a lot of sense as another key addition to a defense with plenty of young talent. — Reed
1:38
Why might a full offseason be important for Jackson Dart’s development?
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jackson Dart.
FPI’s chance to earn the No. 1 pick: 6.8%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 77.8%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Everything except special teams. The defense lagged badly under defensive-minded coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Steve Wilks, resulting in Wilkes firing After 14 games. The offense suffered due to poor quarterback play. Justin Fields The experiment was a colossal failure that cost them $30 million In guarantee. The Jets have some players on offense, but not Fields. tyrod taylor and neither brady cook Were able to galvanize the unit. The team currently ranks 27th in total QBR (40.6). -Rich Cimini
What’s next on the schedule? Are they favored in any of the remaining games?
Jets are not favorites on saints, against the patriots And on bills To close out the season. the saints are playing very well Perhaps The Jets will be able to take care of that, so the bigger risk comes in Week 18 if the Bills have already lost the AFC East and don’t have much to play for. –Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that they will trade the pick?
1. The Jets are a completely blank slate at QB moving forward. They don’t have any major cap issues associated with Fields or aaron rodgers now and. They need a star at QB and would be unwise to pass up the opportunity to draft one with the top pick. –Graziano
Who is the best fit for them at the No. 1 prospect right now?
dante mooreCubby, Oregon. With five first-round selections over the next two seasons, the Jets have the most draft capital of any QB-needy teams. They would prefer to keep Moore around to build future capital after Fields is unable to sign him. Given his ability as a true distributor, Moore’s poise and ball placement project well in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s system. — Reed
