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david schoenfield
The results of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s Hall of Fame voting will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with the two center fielders vying to join Jeff Kent, who was elected in December in Contemporary Era Committee voting in the Class of 2026.
a year ago“This year’s voting is likely the weakest since the early 2000s,” I wrote about the 2025 Hall of Fame candidates. Well, the 2026 version is probably even weaker. The 2025 ballot included at least newcomers Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, who were elected With Billy Wagner. Pitcher Cole Hamels is the only newcomer to the ballot in 2026 with over 50 career WAR.
Here’s one way to look at it. The 2026 ballot features 27 players worth a total of 1,282 WAR, 11 of whom have careers over 50 WAR. There were 37 candidates in the 2013 balloting. The top 27 that year had a total value of 1,672 combined WAR and included 16 players who surpassed 50 career WAR.
The kicker: Nobody made it that year. “From that ballot, 10 players have been elected to the Hall of Fame,” he said. And while only Carlos Beltran and Andrew Jones have a chance to make it this year, this ballot – despite the relative lack of star power – will likely also include several future Hall of Famers.
Keeping in mind the general guidelines, here’s what to look for in Tuesday’s announcement:
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A player needs to receive votes on 75% of the ballots to be elected (not rounded up).
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A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.
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Writers can vote for up to 10 players.
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A player can remain on the ballot for 10 years.
Will Beltran and Jones be involved?
Last year, Beltran received 70.3% of the votes in his third year on the ballot, while Jones received 66.2% of the votes in his eighth year. According to Ryan Thibodeaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Beltran is polling at 89.2% of publicly disclosed ballots, while Jones is polling at 83.5%. This does not mean that they will join. Last year, Beltran polled just above 80% before the announcement, so he lost 10 percentage points when the final results came in, and Jones was at 72.4%, so he lost about six percentage points. Although it feels good, it could still be a nerve-wracking night for both of you.
One thing to note: We could use more center fielders in Hall. When looking at the Hall of Famers from the 1960s and beyond who had the highest career value, center fielders are tied with designated hitters as the least represented position (and that’s counting Frank Thomas as a first baseman). Starting pitchers obviously have the most, but check out the breakdown for position players:
Catcher: 7
First base: 11
Second base: 7
Third base: 8
Shortstop: 7
Left field: 7
Center area: 4
Right field: 12
DH: 4
Four center fielders: Willie Mays, Andre Dawson (who started more games in right field, but two-thirds of his career’s worth came as a center fielder), Kirby Puckett, and Ken Griffey. Not that Hall of Famers should be evenly distributed across positions, but it is a bit disappointing that voters are so favorable to relievers (nine have been elected among that group) while being so harsh on center fielders. The recent contemporary era ballot was originally designed to get Dale Murphy elected – and he still Did not come inside.
Beltran is a strong candidate for the Hall of Fame. With a 70.0 career WAR, he is fourth behind Mays among center fielders since 1960. mike trout And Griffey. Beltran’s traditional counting statistics are also impressive, with 435 home runs, 2,725 hits, and 1,587 RBI. Looks like a Hall of Famer. jones is less than a slam dunk With a 62.7 WAR that depends heavily on his defensive metrics, but he still ranks seventh among center fielders since 1960 (counting Reggie Smith as a right fielder).
How about Chase Utley?
Utley is the third-highest vote getter in 2025, after polling 39.8%. His vote on public ballots is 67.9%, a good increase from the 51.6% pre-announcement vote he received last year. This is his third year on the ballot, so the momentum is looking positive. Utley is similar to Todd Helton, who was elected to the sixth term on the ballot in 2024. Both were players with very high peak values, with Helton earning 37.5 of his 61.8 career WAR over a five-year period from 2000 to 2004 and Utley earning 39.7 of his 64.6 WAR from 2005 to 2009.
Utley’s career also contrasts with that of recently selected second baseman Kent:
Utley: .275/.358/.465, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 1,885 HR, 117 OPS+, 64.6 WAR
Kent: .290/.356/.500, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 HR, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
Utley had higher peak value and better defensive metrics (though not necessarily a great defensive reputation), while Kent had longevity and better counting statistics (and an MVP award, which Utley did not get). Utley vs. Kent reflects the overall issue that Hall of Fame voters should consider: Do you prefer the player with the higher peak value – Utley averaged 41 wins compared to 26 for Kent – or the one who played longer? Historically, the BBWAA favors career length over peak value. Utley will be a good test to determine if we’re seeing more of a shift – or at least a greater appreciation – for higher peak performance.
How will Cole Hamels perform in his first year on the ballot?
Utley joins fellow 2008 World Series star Hamels on the ballot this year, who was the National League Championship Series and World Series MVP. philadelphia phillies. Hamels has 163 career wins and no Cy Young Award, but with a 57.9 career pitching WAR. This is very close to Sabathia’s total of 61.8, and Sabathia was successful on his first ballot. Hamels’ ERA (123 to 116) is better adjusted. Of course, the big difference is the win column: Sabathia won 251 games.
Hamels and Felix Hernandez, who is back on the ballot for the second time, could be considered part of a new generation of pitchers for voters to consider: They have fewer innings pitched and fewer wins (King Felix won 169 games) than your traditional Hall of Fame starting pitcher, sure. But perhaps the standards for beginners should have changed in the last 20 years; Otherwise, the Hall would be closed to almost an entire generation of starting pitchers (except for a few obvious candidates, clayton kershaw, Justin Verlander, max shazer And zack greinke of them). Hernandez received 20.6% of the vote last year, which is not a strong starting point but also does not mean he will never be elected; We just mentioned Helton’s pick in Year 6, after starting out at 16.5% the year before.
How strong are the cases for Andy Pettit and Mark Buehrle?
I did this comparison last year:
Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 WAR, 3,577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3,316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle: 214-160, 60.0 WAR, 3,283 IP, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle didn’t get as many wins, although he did have 15 wins in his final season, so he could have stuck around and easily won many more games. Over his final five seasons, Sabathia went 46-46 with a 4.21 ERA and 8.6 WAR, so it’s not like he added much value getting all those extra wins. Buehrle never had the luxury of pitching for the Yankees and their high-powered lineup, but he did win a World Series with the White Sox in 2005. If the argument is that Sabathia had a higher peak value, well, look at the career wins above average:
Sabathia: 28.2
Petite: 29.8
Buehrle: 29.3
In 2025, Petit received only 27.9% of the vote, while Buehrle received 11.4%. By the way, Hamels had a 35.9 WAA, while Hernandez had 24.5.
Who else has been shot on the road?
Dustin Pedroia and David Wright were headed for the Hall of Fame before their careers were cut short due to injuries. Pedroia still finished with 51.8 career WAR and Wright with 49.1, which at least makes them viable Hall candidates. Unfortunately, both finished with less than 2,000 career hits. That total has generally been a nonstarter for potential Hall of Famers in the post-World War II era, although in recent years, special committees have selected Dick Allen, Tony Oliva, and Gil Hodges, each of whom had fewer than 2,000 hits. If Jones accomplishes this with 1,933 hits, he will be the first ranked player selected by the BBWAA with fewer than 2,000 hits since Ralph Kiner in 1975.
Pedroia received 11.9% of the votes in his first year on the ballot, while Wright received 8.1% in his second year. Although he is a long shot for the Hall of Fame right now, a combination of a weak ballot and perhaps a changing emphasis on peak value could help him gain some momentum. If Jones and Utley are ultimately elected, it could demolish the 2,000-hit barrier imposed by the BBWAA – and help Pedroia and Wright advance. (buster posey would appear on the ballot the following year, and he finished with 1,500 hits.)
What about A-Rod and Manny?
Finally, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. Rodriguez is on the ballot for the fifth time and Ramirez for the last time. Rodriguez recently told The Athletic that he has “divorced” himself from the idea that he will make the Hall of Fame. After garnering 37% of the vote last year, that’s probably the case. Barry Bonds got 66% of the vote in his final year and Roger Clemens got 65%, and as voters become younger and more forgiving, maybe Rodriguez has a chance. But Clemens and Bonds were also in their fifth year polling above 50%. Bonds and Clemens also failed to receive any support in the recent Contemporary Era vote that elected Kent.
