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Bradford Doolittle
Let’s ignore the fact that 2025 mlb playoffs What began on the last day of September and may end on the first day of November — because it’s always October when it comes to playoff baseball — and ask this: Who is this year’s Mr. October?
What if I told you that as of now, this is a Japanese-born star los angeles dodgers With a bad splitter? Okay, admittedly that doesn’t limit it as much as you would think, but I’m guessing the first name that popped into your mind was shohei ohtaniCorrect answer: roki sasakiFor now, anyway.
At least that’s the answer through the rubric. Win probability added (WPA, a metric that has been around for a while and has great utility in putting numbers to stories as the October bracket unfolds.)
The Dodgers, the only wild-card team left, have played an extra round, and Sasaki currently leads all players on baseball’s Final Four rosters in playoff WPA with a .706. Here is Sasaki’s game-by-game performance:
1 October: .015 (last inning of 8-4 wild-card win finished cincinnati redsRelatively low leverage walk. But he looked good doing it, settling the Reds in two blows. Hmm. Maybe it means something.)
4th October: .099 (concluded with a 5–3 Dodger victory in Game 1 of the Division Series) philadelphia philliesSomething is definitely cooking here.)
6 October: .208 (Sasaki faced one batter! But it was the last batter of the game, tree turnerAnd there were runners on the corners with two outs and the Dodgers leading 4–3. Turner grounded out and the Dodgers took a strong lead in the series. LA, we might have a new closer.)
9 October: .384 (Sasaki retired all nine batters he faced during the eighth, ninth and 10th innings of a 1–1 game. The Dodgers won the series, and any doubt that L.A. had found a lethal, high-leverage playoff reliever was erased.)
Numbers that serve as narrative. That’s WPA. We’re keeping an eye on these numbers as the playoffs begin – and will continue to do so. Our leaderboards and findings will be updated here as we progress, so keep checking back.
jump to:
Methodology , top 5 , WPA hero of the day
Top 10 for dropped players , ohtani tracker , All-time WPA Champion
Methodology
way WPA The way it works is that from game to game, if you do something that increases your team’s chances of winning, you get positive credit. If you don’t, it’s negative. In small samples, a single play may have an outsized impact on WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game? Great for your stat line, but explosion does little to change the outcome of the game. Hit that same homer in the eighth with your team down 3-0, and you’ve made some history. Because of this, there is a bias towards players who end up in a lot of close games – but only when they are successful.
We’ve simply lumped together the hitting and pitching versions of the WPA based on the version of the system here at Baseball-Reference.com. Why combine pitching and hitting WPA in 2025, the era of universal DH?
Well, you know why – Mr. Ohtani – and it was his historic debut as a two-way postseason player this season that inspired us to look a little more closely at the WPA results this October. So far, Ohtani has been pretty quiet this postseason, but these leaderboards can change quickly, so don’t write off Ohtani just yet.
top 5 survivors
Best postseason WPAs by players on teams still playing
1. Roky Sasaki, Dodgers .706
Current 2025 Sree Oct.
2. andres munoz, seattle mariners .598
Munoz went 4-for-4 in posting positive WPAs during Seattle’s tense five-game winning streak detroit tigers In the ALDS. Munoz pitched 5⅓ scoreless innings during his four innings.
3. alex vesiaDodgers | .591
Vesia is a good example of why the WPA can be more informative than traditional statistics in the October mini-series. His postseason ERA is 6.00. Eegd! But that’s because he gave up two low-leverage runs in the first game against Cincinnati, which beat the Dodgers. Vessia was not let down in his next four contests, which had great significance for him, including the last inning of L.A.’s extra-inning, close-out win over Philadelphia, when he came in for Sasaki.
4. blake snellDodgers | .581
Snell had been working in both of his contests so far, one in Game 1 against Cincinnati, the other in Game 2 against Philadelphia, a brief affair in which Sasaki recorded the last out.
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., toronto blue jays .434
We all saw what Guerrero did against the Yankees – 9 for 14 with three homers and nine RBI. Since Toronto won so many lopsided games in the series, it limited the chances for any Jays to rack up WPA points. But the early damage Guerrero did in those fights was enough to get him here.
about last night
Golden Boy: chad patrick, milwaukee brewers (.240)
Patrick retired all five batters he faced during a midgame stretch in which the Brewers led chicago cubs Just 2-1. he replaced Aaron Ashby With two runners on base and one out in the sixth Seiya Suzuki on a long flight and striking ian hape To avoid danger. FanGraphs measured those two plate appearances as the first- and third-highest leverage plays of Game 5.
This was Patrick’s third consecutive game leading the Brewers in wins. It’s been quite a rough stretch for the rookie, who was moved to the bullpen for the postseason after making 23 largely successful starts during the regular season.
it was good while they lasted
Top 10 postseason WPAs by players on relegated teams
1. Will WestTiger .848
2. tariq skubalTiger .609
3. kerry carpenterTiger .591
4. aaron judge, New York Yankees .579
5. jose ramirez, cleveland patron .482
6. kidder monteroTiger .441
7. christopher sanchezPhillies | .349
8. Garrett Crochet, boston red sox .348
9. cam schlitlerYankees .314
10. brad kellerCub .283
ohtani tracker
Since Ohtani inspired all this, we should keep an eye on him.
Via NLDS:
Attack on WPA: minus-.257
Pitching WPA: minus-.062
WPA: Minus-.319 (267th out of 284 players this postseason)
It can only get better from here, right? Ohtani is 4 of 27 at the plate (.148) with two homers. Both dingers came in Game 1 against Cincinnati and one of those with the Dodgers already leading 6–0. Ohtani posted a good line in his only pitching outing so far – six innings, three runs, nine strikeouts. But the runs he gave up were early and the Dodgers gave up three runs for most of his outings, limiting his chances of compiling a WPA.
WPA Pantheon
Top 10 single-season postseason WPAs since 1903
Note: This is a large time frame, but the cumulative nature of the leaderboard favors recent decades when there have been more playoff rounds.
1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals 1.908
2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox 1.892
3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 1.748
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees 1.704
5. yordan alvarez2022 Houston Astros 1.646
6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582
7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees 1.545
8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees 1.522
9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 kansas city royals 1.443
10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees 1.420
Ohtani is unique as a full-time two-player player in a series, but not the first. For one, Babe Ruth won two games on the mound and played left field during the 1918 series, although he did not start any games as a position player. But there have also been pitchers who have had big postseason performances with the bat.
Here are four instances in which a player posted at least a .200 WPA on both the hitting and pitching sides during the same season. This is the list we thought Ohtani could join. He’s got some work to do to get there, but at least we know that if he doesn’t do it, in 2025 baseball, no one else will.
• Christy Mathewson, 1913 New York Giants (1.054 WPA | .447 hitting; .607 pitching)
• Rube Foster, 1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 hitting; .580 pitching)
• Babe Ruth, 1918 Red Sox (.710 WPAA (.209 hitting; .501 pitching)
• General Crowder, 1935 Tigers (.923 WPAA | .207 hitting; .716 pitching)
, jake arrieta2016 Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 hitting; .262 pitching)
