Week 13 college football betting: Look at the ‘ugly corners’ for the best value

Week 13 of the college football season is where the board stops caring about team names and starts assigning value to anyone disciplined (or brave) to look at the ugly corners.

Last week a clean sweep was on the cards and the numbers and results were as expected.

This week doesn’t come with the glitter of ranked matchups or brand-heavy teams, and that’s okay. The best sides never appear in the games everyone wants to talk about. Look into the shadows, totals and team profiles that the market will want to scroll through. That’s where these three plays come from.

Oh boy.

choose: Pitt team total under 30.5 (-110)

Pitt is averaging more than 73 yards per game – one of the highest marks in the country – yet is averaging only 5.5 yards per game, which is outside the top 60 nationally. This is the profile of a major crime. They require reps, rhythm and timing to score. When you need all three of these on the road against a team that controls the tempo like Georgia Tech, your ceiling shrinks.

Georgia Tech forces opponents into slow battles by running the ball well and gaining possession. They rank fourth in yards per play, and this style prevents Pitt from running their normal script. Take away the momentum, and a fragile offense shows its limitations. becomes dependent on pit Mason Hentschel To provide tight coverage, and those windows disappear quickly against defenses with real speed.

Pitt can move the ball, but asking them to reach 31 points in a game where possessions fall below their season average and efficiency remains neutral creates a narrow scoring path. Everything tilts one way by staying down in this matchup, and for Pitt, that number is 30.5.

choose: Cal team total over 24.5 (even)

Cal needs Stanford’s defense to survive. If that happens, this matchup hands Cal a short field and a red zone look at the plate.

When I completely disrupt a team, I start with: What does the opposing defense allow by default? The Cardinal have given up 50 red zone trips, the third most in FBS. It’s too bad, it’s just failure. Allowing so many people to take a look at the touchdown is no accident. Stanford’s defense couldn’t tackle, cover, and couldn’t move down the field.

The offense is stumbling as Stanford ranks 121st in coverage. Cal scores when its passing game gets leverage, and the leverage is given for free against this secondary. When your corners lose on the line and your linebackers can’t move anything vertical, even a modest blitz becomes efficient, and efficiency is all you need to get to 27. Cal gets swept because Stanford hasn’t stopped anyone all year.

choose: Nevada Team Total Under 16.5 (-110)

There were two totals looking at me for this game, the Nevada team total was under -110 and the complete game was under 40.5, but the price was -120. Both seem playable on paper, but structurally one is more sound. It makes more sense to expect Nevada to suck.

Nevada’s touchdown rate inside the red zone is 37%, third lowest in the country Maryland Terrapins And Massachusetts MinutemenYou can’t fake it or plan around it, it’s just Nevada, The team may move the ball enough to get inside the 20 but then it all collapses: protection, accuracy and play design, Against Wyoming’s defense, which has allowed only 15 red zone touchdowns all season, the problems with finishing are magnified,

Throw into the equation a pace of 60 plays per game, one of the lowest marks in football, and the Wolf Pack would be lucky to see nine possessions. Sounds weird, but to get to the 17 even in a low possession game you need some kind of efficiency and Nevada doesn’t have it.

Why not the full game below? That number requires cooperation from Wyoming’s offense, not finishing drives, and that’s where the risk lies. Wyoming could stumble to 24 or maybe even 27, but Nevada not getting to 17 is the part of the game I have more confidence in.