Although it has been around for 40 years, the “iron law of prohibition” is as followspopularAs soon as. For those unaware, the conceptholdsThat “as law enforcement becomes more intense, the potency of prohibited substances increases.” or, putOnly“The tougher the enforcement, the tougher the drugs will be.”
The so-called iron law is applied almost any time there is a change in the drug trade.recentlyDuring the US opioid crisis. Although this theory appears compelling, in reality, it is deeply flawed and ignores an even more powerful force – economics.
I am not First Questioning the concept. As stated by Keith Humphreys, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Stanford University noted“The iron law of Prohibition is quite rusty these days.” Yet, everywhere I look, prohibition is being held responsible for the ever-increasing incidence of Fatal And Complex Medicine supply.
The truth is, it’s just business.
Drug trafficking organizations are profit-driven enterprises. For drug traffickers, it’s really “all about benjamin,” and like all dedicated capitalists, their decisions are guided by a desire to minimize risk and maximize profit. This leads to a surge Among synthetic drugs, which offer significant advantages over traditional, plant-based drugs.
It is not surprising that smugglers turned to synthetic drugs. It’s surprising it took so long.
For decades, smugglers in Central and South America exploited crops such as coca, poppy, and cannabis, largely due to favorable growing conditions and a lack of alternative economic opportunities. But farming was (and still is) slow, labor-intensive, and subject to things like drought and blight. This is also not particularly profitable.
is sitting at the bottom of supply chainCampesinos – peasant farmers – earn literally pennies on the dollar, barely enough to make ends meet. Nevertheless, this was the traditional way in which medicines were made and it lasted for a long time. But like every other market, advances in technology, transportation, and globalization have fundamentally changed the illicit drug trade.
Today, synthetic drugs are spreading all over the world – not because of prohibition, but because synthetic drugs are cheaper, easier, and more profitable to sell than plant-based drugs.
Imagine you own a business that sells avocados for $1,000/kilogram, then one day you discover a way to grow a lab-made version that costs $50,000/kilogram. This is how we reached drugs like fentanyl.
What does this have to do with the iron law of prohibition? Whether you believe today’s synthetic drugs are the result of prohibition or a strategic pivot by drug trafficking organizations, these new substances are here to stay.
It is true that we cannot arrest or seize our way out of the drug crisis. Drug control requires a comprehensive, all-of-the-above approach that includes demand reduction, harm reduction, treatment and long-term investment in recovery – but enforcement matters, and when done right, it can have a wide-ranging impact.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, persistent, coordinated enforcement actions by the US and Colombia successfully dismantled the Medellín and Cali cartels, two of the most powerful transnational criminal organizations in the world.
In 2005, when America enacted theCombat Methamphetamine Epidemic Actwhich tightly controlled the sale of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, leading to large-scale US-based production of methdriedMore recently, when Beijing banned all fentanyl-related substances in 2019, seizures of fentanyl from China were shipped directly to the US.declinealmost overnight.
Yes, the Colombian cocaine trade is still active, and yes, increasing regulatory pressure in the US and China has shifted drug production to Mexico, a classic case of “balloon effectBut the rise in synthetic drugs, and the fact that they can be manufactured anywhere, reinforces the need to ensure strong, smart drug controls everywhere. Today, the drug trade is thriving in places like Colombia and Mexico because authorities lack the ability to stop it.
The answer is not to abandon enforcement; Rather, it is a commitment by the international community to enhance security cooperation, build institutional capacity, and step up enforcement efforts where it is needed most. Together we have to find a way to deflate the balloon.
Of course, enforcement alone cannot solve the drug problem. The only way to “win” the drug war is to stop Americans’ insatiable appetite for illegal substances. or the like matt graverJosh Brolin’s title character in “Sicario” said – “Unless someone finds a way to convince 20 percent of the population to stop snoring and smoking [stuff]The order is the best we can hope for.”
The illicit drug landscape is constantly evolving and new, deadly substances are emerging every day. Meanwhile, smugglers continue to innovate and adapt their business models in search of even greater profits.
This new era of synthetic medicines requires new thinking and a more proactive approach. Considering how we got here, and how we get ourselves out, don’t blame prohibition. Shortcoming “Narconomics.”
Jim Crotty served as Deputy Chief of Staff at the US Drug Enforcement Administration from 2019–21 and currently sits on the advisory board of the nonprofit United Against Fentanyl.
