Voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast their influence on key races for governor, mayor and others as observers look for clues about the national mood heading into next year’s midterms.
Large-scale elections are being held in New Jersey and Virginia for other top posts including Governor. In New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani is running against former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa to replace outgoing Mayor Eric Adams.
Meanwhile, California voters will pay attention to a new set of congressional maps put forward by Governor Gavin Newsom (D).
Here are the key races to watch in Tuesday’s crucial 2025 elections:
Virginia
Major elections are being held in the Old Dominion for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and the House of Delegates.
Former Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is running against Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsom Earl-Sears (R) as Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) is term limited. Poll shows Spanberger with easy lead over Earl-Sears Polling Averages of a Decision Desk Headquarters Race Democrats are shown 53 percent ahead of Earl-Sears’ 43 percent.
But the GOP Virginia lieutenant governor and his party have sought to tie Spanberger to a scandal that has swirled around Democratic challenger to Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) in the final stages of the race.
Jay Jones, who is running against Miyares, has been shocked by resurfaced text messages from 2022 in which he talked about shooting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R) and suggested that Gilbert and his wife were “breeding little fascists.”
Jones has apologized for the text messages. He has also considered nationalizing the race by associating Miyares with Trump. A Decision Headquarters Voting Average The race shows Miyares outpolling Jones 47 percent to 45 percent.
Controversy has also arisen among Republicans regarding the race for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia.
Republican John Reed declined to end his candidacy earlier this year after Republicans found a social media account linked to Reed sharing sexually explicit material of men. Reed, who is openly gay, has said the account is not his and said he is being discriminated against because of his sexuality. Reed is running against Democrat Ghazala Hashmi. Surveys also show the race is close
Control of the House of Delegates was still in flux Tuesday as Republicans try to overturn the Democrats’ 51-48 majority.
new Jersey
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is hoping to turn around his party’s fortunes in the Garden State and defeat Democrat Mickey Sherrill to replace New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D).
Recent polls have shown that Democrats cannot take the Garden State lightly: Murphy won re-election against Ciattarelli in 2021 by 3 points, and former Vice President Harris won the state by only 6 points in November.
Republicans are hoping to make the governor’s race a referendum on continued Democratic rule as voters there grapple with rising utility costs and affordability concerns.
Meanwhile, Democrats have sought to nationalize the race and tie Ciattarelli to Trump. Democrats have criticized the Trump administration for blocking funding on the Hudson River Tunnel project, known as the Gateway Tunnel, and suggested the former GOP assemblyman would be unable to stand with the president when needed.
are democratsfeeling cautiously optimisticAlthough there are concerns about his chances on TuesdayBlack and Latino/Hispanic voters at the pollsIt has rocked the Sherrill campaign. a decision desk headquartersvoting averageShows Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli at about 46 percent.
new york city
Independents, moderate Democrats and even Republicans are vying to give Cuomo the edge over Mamdani in the final round of the New York City mayoral election to replace Adams.
Ever since Mamdani defeated the former New York governor in the Democratic mayoral primary, polling has seen steady momentum for the New York State Assembly member who could become the city’s first millennial and Muslim mayor if elected on Tuesday.
Mamdani has been emboldened by several different dynamics: a message about affordability that resonates with voters, offering a vision to voters at a time when most of the party is stuck in a largely anti-Trump message, a Republican nominee who has been playing a major spoiler for Cuomo and recent endorsements from holdouts like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Politicians like Adams, liberal Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi and even Trump have offered endorsements to Cuomo over the past few weeks, though it may not be enough to overcome his deficit against Mamdani. a decision desk headquartersvoting averageMamdani leads Cuomo by double digits, 45 percent to 32 percent.
Another race worth watching in the city is the race for Manhattan District Attorney. Incumbent Alvin Bragg (D), whoconviction ensuredIn 2016, Republican Maude Moran ran against Trump over a hush money investigation.
California
California voters are considering a key ballot measure that could give Democrats four or five pick-up opportunities in the House next year as both parties race to redraw their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Californians will vote on Proposition 50, which would allow the state to temporarily bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission and pass a new Democratic-friendly congressional map before 2026. The measure stipulates that the commission would oversee redrawing California’s House map after the 2030 U.S. Census.
Proposition 50 was born out of a broader redistricting fight that first started in Texas and spread across the country. The White House and national Republicans have pressured states like Texas, Missouri, Indiana and others to redraw their congressional maps ahead of next year’s elections as the GOP prepares for a challenging midterm environment.
The GOP redistricting effort has turned into a tit-for-tat nationally as Democrats have turned to California and elsewhere to try to neutralize some of the gains Republicans have made.
What was initially seen as a big gamble for California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) has turned into what is expected to be a clear victoryAs shown by pollingThe ballot initiative is projected to pass Tuesday — especially in the absence of a competitive opposition campaign against the ballot measure.
Tuesday’s winwill be a welcome signI’m for Newsom, who has long been seen as a leading 2028 contender and who recently left the door open to a run for the White House.
pennsylvania
Voters will focus on the race to retain judges on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court with Justices David Wecht, Christine Donohue and Kevin Dougherty, all Democrats, serving 10-year terms.
The state Supreme Court has a 5-2 Democratic edge, meaning the balance of power is at stake in this Tuesday’s election. Retention races have attracted millions of dollars, although it is generally difficult to oust incumbents during retention elections.
Only one incumbent, a Democratic appellate judge, has lost a retention race since it began in 1968. According to Sabato’s Crystal BallI from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The importance of state supreme courts has only increased, especially in swing states, where they have been the main arbiters on issues such as election disputes, redistricting, and abortion access.
texas
More than a dozen candidates are vying to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who represented Texas’s 18th Congressional District in Houston and died in March.
Those running to fill the remainder of Turner’s term include former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards (D), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and State Representative Jolanda Jones (D).
A candidate must receive at least half the votes to avoid a runoff; If no candidate wins the race outright, the two top vote-getters join the race for the seat. Democrats are expected to win the seat, and the special election would mean Republicans cannot afford any defections if the legislation passes.
mississippi
The redistricting fight gives Democrats a chance to break Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate as the party looks to make inroads in the South. Mississippi was required to implement new maps after a three-judge panel ruled that the previous state legislative map violated the Voting Rights Act.
The new map has given Democrats the opportunity to compete in a handful of districts, although the state legislature is still Republican-dominated.
US Supreme CourtA case was heard again last monthOn the extent of considering race in drawing Louisiana’s congressional maps and election maps, the conservative majority appears inclined to restrict the use of race. That opinion, expected next year, could impact Mississippi’s state maps and other ongoing redistricting lawsuits.
