The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will reveal its first rankings on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s not over yet, as teams still have plenty of opportunities to make or finish their resumes.
However, separation is beginning to occur and Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. with teams will be in The status is displayed below Top 12 launches of this weekA snapshot of what the selection committee’s rankings will look like when they are released on Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we have listed the teams as follows in the final team And first team outThese are true bubble teams revolving around inclusion. Teams labeled still in the mix Not removed, but work remains to be done. a team that is Outside Will have to wait till next year.
The 12-member selection committee does not always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictors, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of group trends, as well as what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they are expected to receive, ranked from highest to lowest. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated Bubble Watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest rankings.
Go to a conference:
acc , big 12 , big ten
seconds , Independent , group of 5
bracket
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will be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Final Team: Ole MissRebels are in a safe position, but they are not locked out if they do not run the table. With games remaining against The Citadel, Florida, and rival Mississippi State, there is no chance of a “good loss”, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; It has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance of winning in the country (43%). However, if an upset occurred, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and would not be able to win a debate with other two-loss teams who had more wins – and had not lost to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength ranks 56th in the country. With the second loss, Ole Miss will hope to win against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee for an at-large bid.
First team out: TexasThe Longhorns got a significant boost this week because the three teams above them were eliminated – Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami – but also because they got another CFP Top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help him in committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, however – and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside the committee’s top 12 – the Longhorns will be eliminated during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest-ranked conference champions, who are guaranteed a spot in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, VanderbiltThe Sooners earned a big resume boost with their win at Tennessee and a win against Michigan in the CFP Top 25. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas is not an eliminator. Where the committee ranks him after Tennessee’s third loss will impact both of their resumes as a common opponent. Missouri’s only losses came to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers have yet to make up for them. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
big ten
will be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Final Team: OregonThe second half of the season is more challenging for the one-loss Ducks, and the committee is going to find out how good this team really is. So far, Oregon’s best win was at Northwestern on September 13. The Ducks are passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% – which ranks 116th in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but will also recognize that the Nittany Lions were not playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sidelines. With road trips to Iowa and Washington – both respectable two-loss teams – and a November 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further solidify itself into the top 12 or fall out.
First team out: USCThe Trojans’ two losses came to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was against Michigan on October 11, but the Trojans can really boost their resume this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win on November 22 in Eugene. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), slightly ahead of Michigan. The only game they are not favored to win is at Oregon on November 22. If they can pull off that upset to finish 10-2, the committee will definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large berth.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, WashingtonThese teams may be ranked by committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will likely remain in the conversation for the shortest time period. A head-to-head loss to USC would be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and CFP rankings, but that could be overcome if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable. Then, there’s the head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance of reaching the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to defeat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country to finish 10–2.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
big 12
will be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Final Team: Texas TechIf Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose another conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 Championship. Therefore, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas Tech will still have a chance to earn an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders will finally be able to claim a win over the Big 12 Champs, which will be a much-needed boost to their resume. This will depend to some extent on how the game progresses. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech finished the season against UCF (4–4) and West Virginia (3–6).
First team out: UtahThe Utes are in a tough spot as their two losses have come to the Big 12’s best teams – BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but it will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes are having difficulty earning an at-large bid without defeating at least one of their league’s best teams.
Still in the mix: CincinnatiAccording to ESPN Analytics, the Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game. They have suffered only one league defeat, which gives them some hope. Their second loss came early in the season to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
acc
will be in: Virginia
Final Team: VirginiaLike Georgia Tech, Virginia also suffered a loss to NC State as its only blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. This is the Hoose’s best win of the season, and possibly their only win against a CFP Top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 of the initial CFP Top 25. Virginia will still be in it if it wins the ACC, even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like Clemson was last year with three losses.
First team out: LouisvilleThe Cardinals lost in overtime to Virginia at home on October 4, but had a blowout win at Miami on October 17. Louisville will probably only get one win against a CFP top 25 team this season, making it difficult to earn an at-large bid. Louisville’s best effort would be to move up the standings, lose to teams ranked above the Cardinals, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, which ranks fourth behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, MiamiThe chances of earning an at-large bid have diminished significantly, but whichever team has a chance to win their league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they are both contenders to play for the ACC title. According to ESPN Analytics, Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC Championship Game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%). Georgia Tech still has the highest chances to win (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
will be in, Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6–2 Irish to move back into the top 10 by defeating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will respect Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame since they have identical records. This is one of several tiebreakers, but does not matter, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and are no longer comparable, Notre Dame may be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance (68.3%) of any team in the country to advance in the standings, but a trip to Pitt on November 15 will be tough. The Panthers, winners of five straight games, have been playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Until the clock runs out on Stanford and they go 10-2, the Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous.
group of 5
Will be in: MemphisAs the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis will earn a playoff berth as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ win against South Florida on Oct. 25 was crucial in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their resume that can be remedied with a conference title. According to ESPN Analytics, Memphis has at least a 57% chance of winning each of its remaining games.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego StateThe committee will consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
bracket
on our basis weekly launchSeeding will take place:
Bye in first round
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champion)
No. 4 Texas A&M
first round games
On campus, December 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champion)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
quarterfinal game
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, respectively.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia champ vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss champ vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. No. 8 Oregon champ vs. No. 1 Ohio State
