I do not live in New York City, so I was not eligible to vote for or against Elected Mayor Zohran MamdaniIt didn’t matter. The mailbox at my home in Oyster Bay – 15 miles from the New York City border – was filled with anti-Mamdani campaign literature. Suddenly, every Democrat running for office in my suburban community was being compared to Mamdani. Liberal local officials were portrayed as Mamdani henchmen, working hand in hand to create some kind of hopeless socialist nightmare. This is a crime by association, even when there is little or no association.
The question is whether this strategy will be used by Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. Having led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) for two cycles, I’m familiar with this playbook. Midterms are always a referendum on the president and his party; And with a president with historically low job approval levels, they may have to change the subject. Find the bogeyman.
I campaigned through a version of the strategy in 2010, when I learned from flyers attached to nearly every utility poll in my swing district that I “voted with Nancy Pelosi 95% of the time!” (True, I guess, if you include the law naming post offices and declaring National Apple Pie Day.) The strategy was to villainize a prominent left-of-center leader and weaponize his image to destroy the unique ideological profiles of weaker candidates.
Now, pundits are weighing how Mayor-elect Mamdani will fare similarly armed By Republicans – who are certainly eager to portray him as a symbol of a radical Democratic Party that has embraced communism. I have no doubt they will try. But Democrats can learn important lessons from this past election heading into the midterms.
Discussion Surrounding the party basically depends on: whether the face of the Democratic Party is someone like Mamdani or someone like centrists Abigail Spanberger and Mickey Sherrill, who were just elected governor In Virginia and New Jersey respectively? The answer should be: both.
Mamdani has demonstrated a powerful talent for generating energy on the streets, revolutionizing digital campaign strategies, building a ground game and tapping into people’s concerns. young votersIn contrast, candidates like Sherrill and Spanberger won competitive races on fashion A message that appeals to crossover voters Who feel the pain of the rising cost of living and are angered by President Trump’s partisan excesses. If Democrats can tie these two strategies together – with campaign operations that can win Brooklyn, New York and messaging that can win Brooklyn, Iowa – they will find a path to victory in the midterms.
Hyper-online progressives and centrists will continue to debate X and Bluesky, but the secret is that Democrats need candidates of all ideologies to win seats and check Trump’s power. candidates who are capable To address the economic frustrations of voters. Messaging that feels authentic and responsive – especially on digital platforms – will win. In Virginia, that means a more moderate candidate like Spanberger. In New York, it’s Mamdani. You need both.
Of course, a large part of this story has not yet been written. The extent to which the Mamdani-as-boogeyman strategy will work for Republicans will depend on how his administration performs. If he governs responsibly, by focusing on the same quality-of-life issues that propelled him to office — rent, bus fare, grocery prices — Republicans won’t succeed in making him appear so scary to voters on the far side of the city. If he takes a more radical route, focusing more on events in the Middle East than on the Midtown Tunnel, he will make headlines in liberal districts across the country and play into the hands of Republicans.
No matter whether Mamdani succeeds or fails as mayor, Republicans will try to take advantage of his political image in three concentric circles around New York. First, liberal districts in the city’s suburbs and outskirts — especially on Long Island, where Democrats have been trounced by Republicans on crime and immigration in recent cycles. Second, the remaining districts extend up just outside New York’s media market. Third, competitive battleground districts in the rest of the country – where their electoral advantage will vary considerably. As you move away from New York City in both time and geography, the impact is much more limited.
The people of Arizona’s Maricopa County 4th Congressional District aren’t going to be swayed by aggressive ads linking the Democrats to New York City’s mayor. Voters in Florida’s 27th Congressional District – which includes Little Havana – may find anti-social messages more effective. But the key to winning these races is for the candidates running in them to define themselves, and for the Democratic Party to accept them as they are.
To win the midterms, Democrats will have to be willing to live in contradictions. We are the party of both Mamdani and Spanberger. To win at the national level we have to remember that all politics is local.
steve israelRepresented New York in the House of Representatives eight times and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015.
