Miami-When the Miami-Dad County helped President Trump to choose in November, about three decades of solid blue, effectively in a conservative Libra, political operators realized their worst fear: Florida was actually a red state.
The signs of a major political change in Southern Florida were seen for several cycles, including the victory of the village Ron Desantis (R) 2022, when he first flipped the Metropolitan County for the first time in more than 20 years.
“There is not much insanity for me than self-affected wounds in Dad,” said Democratic Strategist Steve Scale. “A lot of at my party – especially outside Florida – Obama ’12 and thought [Hillary] Clinton in Miami was the number of ’16 numbers indicated that County had become a progressive stronghold. ,
“But we are talking about a place where most of the people came here to avoid socialist ruling governments and crime – so when people tried to justify things like ‘Democratic Socialism’ on extreme Left, imagine how a family ears, which leaves everything back – or a family that came here to save the police, Scale said.
Another prolonged Democratic operative in Florida stated that losing Miami-dad was a “intestine punch” for Democrats.
“We could see Train Ek before the accident, but it was a particularly painful moment for any Democrat that cares about this state,” the operative said.
Florida Democrats saw its problems in Florida as a result of the years of neglect after Obama’s victory in 2012. But they say that they have not tried to transfer the Sunshine State back to the Purple State area. In fact, they say, they are doubled on their efforts.
In an interview with The Hill, Florida Democratic Party President Nikki Fried said, “We are still rebuilding, but we have got a lot of success.”
Fried pointed to an increase of 8 percent in Democratic voters in 2024 elections from the 2020 election. He also credited that the state party has worked to get the benefit school board And County commissionMiami-Dade Mayor Danila Levin Kava (D) was also able to win reunion by a widespread margin, even in the other direction in County 2024.
Nevertheless, Fried admitted that “a lot of work is to be done and resources we have brought to the state to do that work.”
Democrats’ voter affiliation in Florida has declined sharply from 2020. Republical affiliation in the state has also increased, crossing the Democrat from a hair in 2021 and increased to about 1,500,000 by the end of June.
Political observers credits rigorous changes in party affiliation for many factors, including large -scale migrations of Republican voters in the state during the Kovid -19 epidemic. President Trump – who lives in Palm Beach – has also attracted top Republican operators and donors during their rise in party stardom.
Some Democrats do not believe that there is a lot of movement in their direction. “On the organizational, operating side, I don’t think things are better or worse,” Scale said.
He said that “there are still many donors doubt and donor fatigue” about the most recent cycles in the state. But the Democrats may grow with a significant win in the next cycle, the scale said.
“Success in 2026 is showing advantage and showing improvement, and if you do so that you can make a case to the donors that you can invest,” he said, pointing to David Jolly, pointing to David Jolly, Gubranetorial candidate and former Republican Congress, who changed the parties, and Jose Jose Gavier Rodigaz, a former state Senator.
He said, “You can fix everything you can decide and achieve success,” he said that Democrats can work with other efforts to improve your standing with Hispanic voters.
And as Trump has recently stumbled in the election and message, strategists say that now there is a good time for Democrats to try to gain momentum in the state.
“If [Republicans] In his second term, at this point, the lowest approval rating of any President continues to move forward for these policies with Trump, I think it will create an environment where the first time in decades, the voters of Florida can say, ‘Look, this is the time for a change, and the only change is to shoot the democrats, “
He said that the desire for change in Florida is a “unprecedented strength crisis which is the only responsibility of Republican”, which has been “the total control of the state government for almost three decades”.
Despite the ripe moment, strategists say it would still have a heavy lift to re -receive voters for Democrats – at least immediately.
“I live here. I want to be an optimistic … but I am also a realistic. It is f ‑ and ing is difficult, and a lot of work is to be done,” Schale said.
But efforts are going on, including the Pendulum Pahal of the Florida Democratic Party, a one-year round organizing program, in which Fried said that already contributed to significant benefits in two deep Congress districts, where there were off-cycle elections. Fried also pointed to the party’s front porch swing initiative, aimed at listening to voters in rural Florida where they are.
With a small win in 2024, Fried stated that 2024 had lessons learned from overall losses, including the best way to connect with voters.
While the Democrats had more than $ 1 billion earned media at the national level, “At the end of the cycle, most voters said,” What is the message? ” From the party, Fried said.
“We missed the mark on the breakdown through the floridian everyday which are not seeing us at traditional news stations,” he said.
Strategists say it is especially important to associate with voters as Democrats have struggled with achieving their base for ballot papers in recent election cycles.
,[Democrats] Where voters are there, there is a disciplined, concentrated message for candidates and rally, and where are the voters now, they want a resolution of this Republican politician-made strength crisis, “Aammi said.” If they can do those two things, they can place themselves to surprise a lot of people on next November. ,
Strategists say that from Democrats – operators to donors – Florida will have to invest time and money if they want to see their party once again in power.
“Democrats have no luxury to write Florida as Florida continues to play a significant role in electoral college mathematics only because they are only going to move forward,” Amandi said. “If you stop states like Florida and Texas, you are saying that you are ending any route to win the White House as a Democrat.”
